There is a study in horse racing and some very good books out there on the body language of a thoroughbred.
If you have ever gone to a race track it is a must to get down to the paddock and check out the runners before the race. You can get a good idea on which ones look like they want to run and those that don’t.
In my humble opinion this technique can also be applied to sports betting. I remember my first body language experience – at the time I really didn’t realize it but after it happened I never did forget and have used it whenever possible.
There were some perfect spots this past week it could have been used.
My first experience came on a very cold, no it was a very, very cold day at Three Rivers Stadium in 1978. I was back in Steubenville and my friends had a box at Three Rivers so we all went. We were standing as the teams came out on the field. There was the great running back for the Houston Oilers, Earl Campbell, he had more clothes on than the entire Steelers team as did his teammates.
Then here comes Jack Lambert for Pittsburgh running and yelling up and down the field wearing a short sleeve shirt. One of my friends who was a big bettor runs out of the box, comes back 10 minutes later and we say boy did you need to go.
He says, no I needed to see my bookie he is one level below. He bet five dimes on the Steelers. The game between the Steelers and the then-indoor Houston Oilers was a blow out, 31-3 at halftime (sort of like the Panthers game this past week). The final was 34-5 with the great Campbell getting just 62 yards on 22 carries.
The Steelers went on to win the Super Bowl that year, beating the Cowboys in the infamous Vegas -3.5 and +4 Stardust debacle. The game ended 35-31, and the “Dust” was cleaned out!
Watching Tom Brady this past week says to me he is in a mindset to take his team all the way and I would not want to buck him.
We have the conference championships this Sunday. Let’s take a little look at the two games.
Last week: 2-1-1
Patriots -3 total 44.5 at Denver (noon PT): Revenge game No. 2 for the BB boys, Belichick and Brady, as these Broncos beat the Patriots back on Nov. 29 in Denver, 30-24. The point spread was exactly the same. Brady and his bunch got the revenge win last week against the Chiefs, 27-20, but it was easier that the final score. As for the Broncos, if it weren’t for that late fumble we would have Pittsburgh playing them.
The Steelers with the amazing Big Ben played a winning game but it is what it is. With the win Peyton Manning is a great QB but looks very cautious, to say the least, of taking a hit. Patriots coming to town with one purpose in mind, to win the Super Bowl. PATRIOTS.
Cardinals +3 total 47 at Panthers (3:40 PM): The ball took some crazy bounces in the Cardinals win over the Packers and this bettor is still scratching his head wondering how the redbirds let them score to put the game in OT. I would need to fire the coach who came up with that defense scheme. But Carson Palmer got his first taste of victory in a playoff game, having lost his previous two starts. I love Cam Newton. He is a player and rooter on the sidelines for his defense.
Cam is 6-0 ATS at home vs. teams with a win percentage of .750 or higher. I remember some things from school, One is Newton’s Law of Motion: Every object in a state of uniform motion tends to remain in that state of motion unless an external force is applied.
This is the law of Inertia. I believe the Cards lack the force to stop Newton and his state of motion. We will lay the 3 and go to the bank !!!! PANTHERS.
As my dad, Ben, would say to my mom, Mary, after she would ask him why he had to go to the race track every night, “I could be walking around Lucky.”
1 for Thursday
Just getting away from my 2 for Tuesday hoops picks, I will go with a 1 for Thursday play since I have some extra room.
Wisconsin travels to State College to take on the Nittany Lions. The Lions catch them off a huge win over Michigan State on Sunday. We may get a few points with Penn State at home and if so we will take them. PENN STATE