It may pay to disagree.
Gamblers show starkly opposing views of several NFL Week 5 games, building some betting theater.
Players concur that the host Miami Dolphins will handle the New York Giants at -12.5 (Best Live Odds: ), but not on whether the Giants will score enough to help cover the 47.5 total (Best Live Odds: ).
There’s more than a 40% perception difference, with 31% of the DraftKings tickets and 72% of the handle backing the Under 47.5. Bettors see two different outcomes, not sure whether the Dolphins win a high-scoring or low-scoring game.
The question is whether the 1-3 Giants, who have 15 total points in their three losses, can help create a winning Over ticket.
The same goes for the New York Jets at the Denver Broncos. Gamblers agree to back the Jets at +2.5 (Best Live Odds: ) with 78% of the handle, but only 25% of the money is on the Under 43.5 (Best Live Odds: ), compared with 60% of the tickets.
Gamblers are unsure about whether these teams can put up points.
Another split perception involves the Kansas City Chiefs and host Minnesota Vikings.
Gamblers concur at 78% handle that these teams will soar past 52.5 (Best Live Odds: ), the only total above 50 at the sportsbook.
But the spread? Ahh, a different story, with 24% of the tickets and 62% of the handle backing the Vikings. That’s a 38% difference, with enough Vikings money coming in to move the line a full point, from Kansas City -4.5 to -3.5 on Friday morning (Best Live Odds: ).
This action conveys the idea that Minnesota is overdue to beat a good team and resemble its 13-4 look from last year. Feeding this potential is Kansas City playing a second straight road game. If there was one contest in which the Chiefs could trip, this would be it.
Check out our NFL Week 5 betting beat.
More action: NFL Week 5 odds | Super Bowl 58 MVP odds | NFL MVP odds
Rams Join Vikings in Respect Parade
The 4-0 Philadelphia Eagles dropped from -4.5 to -3.5 Friday morning (Best Live Odds: ) for Sunday’s road game against the 2-2 Los Angeles Rams.
The Rams, from whom little was expected this season, have road victories over the Seattle Seahawks and Indianapolis Colts. They also lost by only seven points to the Niners.
The Eagles have been doing enough to win without looking like the team that steamrolled the NFC last year. Their offense is difficult to stop, but the defense has been less dominant than in 2022.
The start of Week 5 action has already shown that bettors benefit by going against the grain.
Underdog Bears Reward Spread, Moneyline Bettors
“Da Bears” are off “Da Schneid,” leaving the Carolina Panthers with the only “O”, as in 0-4, entering the weekend. Carolina has its work cut out at +10 (Best Live Odds: ) against the host Detroit Lions in trying to match what the Bears just did.
Chicago was considered a live dog at +5.5 on Thursday night, taking the majority of late money and driving the line down from +6, before throttling the Washington Commanders 40-20.
Gamblers found that all patterns must end, even one in which Chicago had lost 14 straight on the moneyline and seven on the spread.
Chicago paid them +210 on the moneyline.
Bettors also cashed in with D.J. Moore as a popular pick to deliver the first touchdown of the game at +1100. He garnered 10% of the DraftKings handle. The score was also worth +165 as an anytime TD.
The Under had delivered in seven straight Washington home games.
But that 45.5 number was cleared this time.
Johnny Avello, the DraftKings race and sportsbook operator, proved prophetic this week when telling Gaming Today that the Bears were in a spot to perhaps play their best game.
Niners Cling to -3.5 Spread Against Cowboys (Best Live Odds: )
The primetime Sunday night game between the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys has a number that seems embedded.
It’s been this way most of the week, with the line holding and San Francisco bettors backing the Niners with 77% handle. That’s down from 86% in midweek. Some Cowboys money has come in on a number that’s friendly to Dallas.
Dallas backers like the team’s 35-point blowout win over the Bill Belichick-led New England Patriots, who rarely lose so badly.
On the flip side, Niners backers may believe their team is one big play better than the Cowboys.
Read more: Cowboys vs. 49ers odds, props, and predictions
NFL Week 5 Injury Updates
Pittsburgh Steelers backers may have picked up two free points. The Steelers were a +2.5-home dog against the Baltimore Ravens before Kenny Pickett’s knee injury from last week threatened to sideline him.
That pushed the line to Baltimore -4.5 (Best Live Odds: ).
Pickett surprised onlookers by returning as a full participant in Thursday’s practice. He expects to start as of early Friday morning.
But the line didn’t go back down.
That could be a nice little pickup for Steelers bettors. These teams play nail-biting football. The last four games have been decided by nine total points.
Betting handle is split, with Baltimore getting 51% of the handle on Friday morning.
Cooper Kupp is lobbying to get back into the lineup for the Rams against the Eagles. If he teams with Puka Nacua, the Rams could have one of the league’s most formidable receiving tandems. Kupp rumors may be responsible for the line drop in this game.
Tee Higgins has missed two straight practices and is more likely than not to sit for the Cincinnati Bengals against the Arizona Cardinals. This could be a prop and fantasy windfall for Tyler Boyd.
Here’s a look at DraftKings betting highlights for the first quarter of the season.
Top Super Bowl Futures Movement
Fortunes have changed based on teams’ performance. Here is where some teams opened and then reached in early October.
- Baltimore Ravens from +3500 to +1600 (Best Live Odds: )
- Cincinnati Bengals from +850 to +3000 (Best Live Odds: )
- Dallas Cowboys from +1400 to +1000 (Best Live Odds: )
- Detroit Lions from +2500 to +1800 (Best Live Odds: )
- Miami Dolphins from +1500 to +1000 (Best Live Odds: )
MVP Candidates
Christian McCaffrey +15000 to +2000 (Best Live Odds: )
Whoa, how could he have ever been +15000? What a coup for anyone who grabbed his ticket there.
Jalen Hurts +1300 to +700 (Best Live Odds: )
Steady not explosive, Hurts reflects a 4-0 team that does enough every week for a W.
Josh Allen +800 to the +360 Chalk (Best Live Odds: )
Those who bought on the dip after his bad first game against the Jets captured a good deal.
Tua Tagovailoa +1500 to +500 (Best Live Odds: )
You know it. Nobody lights it up like Tua when he is on.
Joe Burrow +650 to +5000 (Best Live Odds: )
Anyone holding a paper ticket on this has something to throw in the fire. That’s just how it goes. Some bets won’t be close.
Chalk Teams Generate Enormous Interest
Hail to the Chiefs. And the Eagles. And the Lions.
They generated the most handle of NFL teams for the first quarter of the season at DraftKings.
Here are the teams, in order, enticing the most interest:
Top Teams By Handle
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Detroit Lions
- Dallas Cowboys
- Buffalo Bills
- New York Giants
- San Francisco 49ers
- Miami Dolphins
- New York Jets
- Seattle Seahawks
Top Teams By Tickets
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Philadelphia Eagles
- San Francisco 49ers
- Baltimore Ravens
- Miami Dolphins
- Dallas Cowboys
- Buffalo Bills
- Detroit Lions
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Seattle Seahawks
It’s not surprising that the recent Super Bowl opponents have the top totals by ticket volume. The Chiefs are 3-1 ML and 2-2 against the spread. They have covered a number as high as -12.5 vs. the Chicago Bears in Week 3.
The Eagles are 2-1-1 vs. the number and are 4-0 moneyline. One of their victories was by half a point. Books have accurately projected where their games will land.
The Lions have been heavily supported ever since their Week 1 upset over the Chiefs. They stumbled against the Seahawks and then delivered 14-point triumphs against the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers, as small favorites.
The Giants and Jets draw heavy volume in the New York market despite their combined 2-6 record. Bettors feasted in backing the Giants last year. Big Blue had the league’s best record against the spread.
This year, they are at the bottom (0-4 vs. the number), which is worst in the league.
Two Teams That Still Don’t Know if They Can Play With the Lead
Here’s one bit of trivia they don’t pay you extra for, but it’s fun to know in case it ends this week.
The Jets and Giants share something bizarre. They are the only two NFL teams not to snap the ball while having a lead this year.
How can that be? They each have a win. But the Giants captured their only game on the final offensive play against the Arizona Cardinals and the Jets beat the Bills with an overtime punt return TD in a game they never led.
This is a strange one. The teams that share this strange mark also share the same venue, MetLife Stadium.
Come to think of it, maybe bettors CAN make money on this, with a side wager against their friends.
Two Prop Nuggets to Weigh for Vikings and Giants
Here’s a prop that tells a story.
Daniel Jones of the Giants is -110 at DraftKings to throw a pick this week in Miami. He is tied with Jimmy Garoppolo of the Las Vegas Raiders for most interceptions thrown with six.
Kirk Cousins is borderline pricey at -130 at home versus Kansas City. He has four picks.
As a parlay, Cousins and Jones are +237.
This is better than some gamblers expected. Cousins is often above -150 and this is a good price for Jones, too.
They were linked in a dubious way last week. Each threw a disastrous pick 6 by throwing a medium-strength pass across the field to the near end of the sideline. Cousins’ floater was returned 99 yards, giving the Carolina Panthers the first score of the game.
Jones’ was 97 yards and was the backbreaker in New York’s 24-3 setback to the Seattle Seahawks.
What’s surprising is how much damage Cousins and Jones often cost their teams. Both were playoff quarterbacks last year.
How do gamblers approach this prop in Week 5? One school of thought believes they are due for a clean game.
The other contends they will throw the picks because they are victimized by bad play calls from offensive coordinators.
BetMGM NFL Dodges Prop Bullets in Commanders vs. Bears
The sportsbook did not have to pay out its top four props, while gamblers did collect on the fifth.
Most Bet (Tickets) Props
- Justin Fields to score 1st touchdown, +1100
- Terry McLaurin to score anytime touchdown, +160
- Brian Robinson Jr. Over 15.5 rushing attempts, -130; 99% of money on Over
- Brian Robinson Jr. Over 65.5 rushing yards, -110; 99% of money on Over
- Sam Howell Over 13.5 rushing yards, -110; 99% of money on Over
Only Howell, who notched 19 rushing yards, was a winner. Both Robinson bets lost, as Washington’s need to throw often took him out of the running game.
The book also announced some adjustments to projected win totals.
BetMGM NFL Highlights: Win Totals
Notable Win Total Increases (Last Week to Now)
- Eagles 11.5 to 12.5
- Bills 10.5 to 11.5
- Ravens 9.5 to 10.5
- Lions 9.5 to 10.5
- Seahawks 8.5 to 9.5
- Chargers 8.5 to 9.5
- Titans 7.5 to 8.5
- Vikings 6.5 to 7.5
- Texans 5.5 to 7.5
- Broncos 5.5 to 6.5
Notable Win Total Decreases (Last Week to Now)
- Browns 10.5 to 9.5
- Bengals 9.5 to 8.5
- Steelers 9.5 to 8.5
- Packers 9.5 to 8.5
- Jets 6.5 to 5.5
- Panthers 5.5 to 4.5
- Bears 5.5 to 4.5
Some FanDuel Props to Consider
Derrick Henry and Isiah Pacheco to reach 175 combined yards, +220.
Henry plays at the Indianapolis Colts, while Pacheco goes against the Minnesota Vikings. Both are road contests. Henry alone can hit 200 yards when all the planets align. Both runners had strong games last week.
Nacua and A.J. Brown to reach 200 combined yards. That’s +250. Nacua figures to be Matthew Stafford’s prime target while Brown is a big-play performer who can obtain his yards in a hurry. But if Kupp comes back, he’ll eat into Nacua’s total.
Here’s the Wilson double dip. Both Zach Wilson of the New York Jets and Russell Wilson of the Denver Broncos to toss two touchdowns apiece. It’s +500.
Most Interceptions Thrown During 2023 NFL Season
This is intriguing because gunslinger Josh Allen of the Bills heads the list at +600.
- Matthew Stafford, +700
- Sam Howell, +800
- Zach Wilson, +900
- Kirk Cousins, +1000
- Jimmy Garoppolo, +1200
Figure this one and out and it will pay quite well.
Read more: Odds to make 2024 NFL playoffs | NFL betting sites | NFL betting promos
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