One game is in the bank, another starts early Sunday morning and the NFL is a crisscrossing pattern of new coaches, new quarterbacks, and a new city to showcase the game.
“Jawohl” (for yes) as they might say in Frankfurt, Germany, hosting its first-ever game between the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday morning, it’s going to be a wildly entertaining week for the gamblers.
Here is Bontempo’s NFL Week 9 Betting Beat, analyzing the games, prop bet considerations, and how the public is wagering heading into the weekend.
Titans vs Steelers Week 9 TNF Betting Results
The Pittsburgh Steelers are already on the board with a Week 9 triumph. They held off the Tennessee Titans, 20-16, at -3.5. It was also a win for the Under 37. The verdict went right to the wire with Pittsburgh picking off Will Levis at the goal line.
Kenny Pickett managed to shake off his injuries and play for Pittsburgh.
Steelers running back Najee Harris got bettors off to a good start by tallying the week’s first touchdown. That paid +850 at DraftKings.
Pittsburgh’s victory propels bettors to the weekend slate. The Denver Broncos, Jacksonville Jaguars, Detroit Lions, and San Francisco 49ers have byes.
But the bettors have a full plate.
New Quarterbacks and Their Wagering Implications
Taylor Heinicke of the Atlanta Falcons, Jaren Hall of the Minnesota Vikings, and Clayton Tune of the Arizona Cardinals become the next signal callers the public will bet with or against.
Two of them face each other.
As we forecast during the week, Desmond Ridder has been replaced for the time being by Heinicke as the Falcons’ quarterback.
Heinicke was effective in leading the Falcons back from a big hole in their 28-23 setback to the Titans. He was also good for the Washington Commanders the last couple of seasons and it seemed surprising for him to leave there.
Washington did find a good one in Sam Howell. Heinicke came to Atlanta and he adds depth. He is a steady quarterback who can also run.
The Falcons host the injury-riddled Minnesota Vikings at -4 (Best Live Odds: ).
Hall gets the starting quarterback nod for Minnesota. He replaces Kirk Cousins, who is injured and gone for the year. Minnesota picked up Joshua Dobbs from the Arizona Cardinals at the trade deadline, but he will have to learn the system.
The public backs Atlanta with 59% of the handle and rides the Under 37 (Best Live Odds: ) at 73%.
Minnesota rides a three-game win streak, helped by receivers K.J. Osborn, T.J. Hockenson, and Jordan Addison. Can they get on the same page with Hall?
Tune, meanwhile, looks like he’ll start at quarterback for the Cardinals, who visit the Cleveland Browns at +8 (Best Live Odds: ). There is an outside chance Kyler Murray could return, but that is slated for Week 10.
P.J. Walker, himself a backup quarterback, has done excellent work for Cleveland, which is favored to go to 5-3.
The Browns’ swarming defense against a brand-new QB will get prop-betting motors running. The first one on the board, Arizona to lose a fumble, is +125. Not bad, but not a rush to get it down.
Interceptions and special-teams touchdowns or a safety will be prominent considerations, along with sack totals, once they go up.
The Cardinals have lost 14 of their last 15 games.
The Browns have covered their last six games after a loss. They were beaten by the Seattle Seahawks 24-20 last week.
Six of the last seven games in Cleveland have gone Under the total. The bar is low for this one at 37 (Best Live Odds: ), but the public is on the Under at 73%.
The big factor in Cleveland is the wind. It is projected at a manageable 9 mph, perhaps giving the Over a chance.
Raiders Play First Game After Changes At Top
Antonio Pierce tries to light a fire under the Raiders, who named him the head coach after firing Josh McDaniels and general manager David Ziegler on Tuesday night.
And the Raiders, 3-5, injected positive vibes into their locker room with this coaching move.
A first-time jolt from a new boss often puts players on their toes. The Raiders have 66% of the betting handle when hosting the New York Giants at -1.5 (Best Live Odds: ).
This is the type of game made for Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams for the Raiders. Shop the books for the best values on props. Each will be eager to make an impression.
So will the new quarterback for the Raiders. Aidan O’Connell, who played pretty well in relief of Jimmy Garoppolo in an earlier game, will start for Las Vegas.
Daniel Jones is expected back for the Giants after missing several weeks with a neck injury. The Giants should be injected with enthusiasm, too.
A Look Around the League in Each Time Slot (ET)
Sunrise Service: 9:30 a.m. ET/6:30 a.m. PT
Don’t blink or you might miss one of the year’s signature NFL games.
The Kansas City Chiefs “host” the Miami Dolphins at -2 (Best Live Odds: ), but not in Arrowhead Stadium. Not in Kansas City. Not even in the United States.
The game is in Frankfurt, Germany. This is part of the NFL International series. Here are some varied takes on a game that belongs here but has gone abroad.
Sportsbooks Not Thrilled, But Not Unhappy
The early time changes the betting handle from bonkers to just very good. It will have a significant effect on in-game wagering. Thankfully for sportsbooks, mobile betting is an excellent safety valve.
“People who don’t want to get up early on Sunday, especially in a place like Las Vegas, will make their bets Saturday night before they go to bed,” Johnny Avello, the director of race and sportsbook operations for DraftKings, told Gaming Today. “It’s not going to do the same business as if it was in a prime-time slot, but it will be the best write we have done for any of these international games. These are two celebrated teams.”
The teams have different views about handling the time change.
When to Show Up
The Dolphins took a leisurely approach. They arrived on Tuesday in order to experience the country, look at something beyond the game, and potentially shift their body clocks. If one normally falls asleep around midnight on America’s East Coast, that’s 5 a.m. in Germany. It takes a couple of days for the body, and one’s eating schedule, to get adjusted.
The Chiefs are scheduled to arrive Friday and focus primarily on business. They have a six-hour difference.
Coaches will probably let players catch naps when they need to.
One thing the NFL should consider is what time to play this game. If it started at 9 p.m. Frankfurt time, it could fit into the 4 p.m. window here and draw a large audience on both continents.
We’ll see how the betting fares. My opening prediction is that it does 65-70% of the business it would have realized in a regular time slot.
Patrick Mahomes and the Flu
Coach Andy Reid says the Kansas City quarterback doesn’t have flu-like symptoms anymore. Mahomes played through the flu as the Chiefs were beaten by the Denver Broncos 24-9 last week.
Bettors will have to decide whether they think he’s right this week. Either way, this game is expected to be a shootout.
Dolphins vs Chiefs Touchdown Scorers (First, Anytime)
- Travis Kelce (+650, -125)
- Isiah Pacheco (+650, -120)
- Tyreek Hill (+650, -125)
- Raheem Mostert (+750, -115)
- Jaylen Waddle (+1100, +150)
Kelce to have five catches in the first half. Yes is +220.
Ravens and Seahawks Headline 1 p.m. Slot
Baltimore is -6 (Best Live Odds: ).
That’s a fairly big bulge in a matchup of two stellar teams. The 5-2 Seahawks lead the NFC West ahead of the 49ers. They face a 6-2 Ravens team sitting atop the AFC North.
The Seahawks are 2-1 in trips across the country this year. They toppled the Detroit Lions and New York Giants before losing to the Cincinnati Bengals. They are getting a lot of points based on that.
Does A plus B equal C? The ‘Hawks needed a last-minute TD to slip past the Cleveland Browns, 21-20. This is the same Browns team that the Ravens thumped 28-3 in Cleveland.
The public is split with Seattle getting 58% of the handle and 45% of the bets. Gamblers predict offense, with 65% handle going Over the 44 total (Best Live Odds: ).
Seahawks vs Ravens Touchdown Scorers (First, Anytime)
- Lamar Jackson (+650, +110)
- Gus Edwards (+700, +105)
- Mark Andrews (+700, +125)
- Kenneth Walker (+750, +125)
- Zay Flowers (+850, +150)
- Odell Beckham Jr. (+1300, +275)
- D.K. Metcalf (+1300, +200)
- Tyler Lockett (+1400, +240)
The Ravens come off a bizarre non-covering win over the Cardinals. They prevailed 31-24 at -9.5 after allowing a late touchdown, onside kick, and last-second field goal.
Still, they got the W.
Eagles and Cowboys Dominate Afternoon Window
The Eagles, -3, have won their last eight games against NFC opponents.
The favorites have covered eight of the last nine Cowboys games.
Philly and Dallas have hit the Over five times in a row. The bar is set at 47 (Best Live Odds: ), with 82% of DraftKings handle on the Over.
The Eagles have 60% of the handle at -3 (Best Live Odds: ). The betting line has been tucked in like a baby all week.
This begins a brutal, definitive five-game stretch for the Eagles.
They follow with games against Kansas City, the Buffalo Bills, and the 49ers before visiting Dallas.
It will be interesting to see how the NFC East looks after those five games.
Cowboys vs Eagles Touchdown Scorers (First, Anytime)
- Jalen Hurts (+600, -110)
- Tony Pollard (+650, -110)
- D’Andre Swift (+700, -115)
- A.J. Brown (+700, +110)
- CeeDee Lamb (+850, +125)
- Dallas Goedert (+1400, +245)
The Eagles love to target Goedert as a first TD scorer.
The book anticipates both A.J. Brown and CeeDee Lamb coming to earth after their stratospheric recent exploits.
Brown owns an NFL record six straight games clearing 125 receiving yards. His Over-Under total is 82.5 at -115 on both sides.
Lamb went off with 158 yards last week and his number is 72.5, -115 on both sides.
Bengals and Bills Should Light Up Night Sky
A barnburner between the Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills starts at 8:20 p.m. ET.
Buffalo eked out a win-but-no-cover 24-18 triumph over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -10 last week.
The Bengals topped the San Francisco 49ers, 31-17, at +4 for their third straight win and cover.
Fireworks are expected.
That’s evident in the anytime scoring column, where three players are in minus numbers.
Bills vs Bengals Touchdown Scorers (First, Anytime)
- Ja’Marr Chase (+550, -130)
- Joe Mixon (+550, -130)
- Steffon Diggs (+700, -105)
- James Cook (+950, +125)
- Tee Higgins (+1000, +140)
- Josh Allen (+1200, +170)
- Dalton Kincaid (+1200, +195)
- Gabriel Davis (+1500, +210)
- Tyler Boyd (+1600, +260)
- Irv Smith (+2000, +350)
Bills vs Bengals Other Props
- Joe Burrow Passing Yardage 262.5
- Josh Allen Passing Yardage 272.5.
Both are -115 Over and Under.
- Burrow 25.5 completions, (Over and Under, -115)
- Allen 23.5 completions (Over +100, Under -130)
- Burrow to throw interception (-105)
Bettors back the Over 49.5 and Cincinnati -2 at 74% handle.
NFL Week 9 Special Props (FanDuel)
This one is fun and loaded with entertainment every week at FanDuel.
Last week, the Chiefs returned a whopping +5500 to be the lowest-scoring team in the NFL. They had nine points.
The high- and low-scoring teams usually end up somewhere in the +1000 range.
Every possibility with odds is listed on the site under Weekly Special. Here are the leaders:
Lowest Scoring Team: Favorites
- Arizona (+600)
- Chicago (+900)
- Minnesota (+1000)
- Los Angeles Rams (+1200)
- Giants (+1200)
Highest Scoring Team
- Kansas City (+950)
- Cincinnati (+1000)
- New Orleans (+1000)
- Miami (+1100)
- Baltimore (+1100)
- Philadelphia (+1100)
Lowest Game Total
- Minnesota-Atlanta (+600)
- Arizona-Cleveland (+600)
- New York Giants-Las Vegas (+600)
- Los Angeles-Green Bay (+700)
- Tampa Bay-Houston (+800)
Highest Game Total
- Miami-Kansas City (+410)
- Buffalo-Cincinnati (+490)
- Dallas-Philadelphia (+650)
- Baltimore-Seattle (+800)
- Indianapolis-Carolina (+900)
- A.J. Brown and CeeDee Lamb to reach 200 yards (+240)
This would have been a winning bet last week. That’s why bettors may be lured to it. Sure, it’s not easy for each guy to repeat a monster game, but it does happen.
- Ja’Marr Chase and Stefon Diggs to reach 200 yards (+210)
If you like any of these bets, you’d be figuring on at least one deep completion.