After a shockingly competitive battle between Tyron Woodley and Jake Paul in August, the rematch takes place this Saturday in Tampa, Florida. The first bout was a split-decision win by Paul, who was scheduled to fight Tommy Fury this weekend. Tommy is the brother of heavyweight champion Tyson Fury, and he was forced to pull out due to a broken rib and bacterial chest infection.
Woodley is taking this rematch fight on just two weeks’ notice. Oddsmakers have Paul as a big favorite this time despite one judge giving Woodley the win in August. Let’s break down our approach to betting on this weekend’s big match.
BOXING · Sat (12/18) @ 11:00 pm ET
|Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL|
Paul vs. Woodley II Analysis
In the second installment of what has now officially become a rivalry, Woodley comes in as the +230 underdog with Paul as the -290 favorite. This represents a stark difference in the odds offered in August when Paul closed as a -160 favorite. Seeing Paul’s odds nearly double in value after the first fight is bizarre, to say the least. In a split-decision victory, he did not look like a -300 favorite during the first fight.
Woodley lost the initial fight early, as he looked horrible in the first three rounds. He lost all three of those rounds decisively and barely landed a jab. Overall, Woodley threw less than 10 punches in the first round showing his unwillingness to throw strikes. His lack of activity is a terrible omen for anyone hoping Woodley can win a decision. Things did get better for him as the fight progressed, but he was still clearly out-landed 71-52 in favor of Paul per BoxingScene.com.
As a +230 underdog, one judge gave Woodley the fight, 77-75, and the other two awarded it to Paul. It would be less than shocking to see a draw in this fight, but oddsmakers are offering +1600 on that outcome.
Betting Pick: How Dillon Danis Somehow Factors In
If you don’t know the name Dillon Danis, you’re not missing much fighting-wise. He used to fight for Bellator MMA, but suffered a bad knee injury that seems to have retired him from Mixed Martial Arts. He was also Conor McGregor’s jiu-jitsu coach for a short stint that really launched him into fame. His mild involvement in this rematch starts and ends with a discussion on the Ariel Helwani Podcast. Dillon Danis jumped into the headlines by saying that Tyron Woodley was forbidden to knockout Jake Paul per a clause in the contract. This is an unfounded claim and is — at best — a conspiracy theory.
True or not, Danis’ claim must have got Jake Paul’s attention. A clause was added in the contract for the possibility of Woodley landing a KO/TKO. If that happens, Woodley receives a $500,000 bonus! There will be plenty of motivation for Woodley to land the final blow to put Paul down.
Betting odds are all over the place compared to the last fight. For instance, Woodley’s KO/TKO prop is currently at +350 on Caesars Sportsbook. Betting closed on the first fight with Woodley to win by KO/TKO at +190.
Furthermore, Woodley to win by decision opened +2000 at many books across the industry. For the rematch, that line has dropped down to +750 on FanDuel Sportsbook and +800 on DraftKings Sportsbook. It is very unlikely that Woodley wins a decision due to his volume concerns, so this is not a play for me.
With an extra $500,000 bonus on the line and a potential trilogy fight looming, “The Chosen One” is a very worth a bet at his current odds. As money comes in, expect Woodley to be a worthy bet at +200 or better this weekend.
Paul vs. Woodley II Betting Picks
Our picks: Woodley ML +230 | Woodley wins in Round 5-6 +1200 (Caesars)
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