The Dodgers are heavy favorites on the moneyline for NLCS Game 3 against the Braves, listed between -169 (DraftKings) and -189 (BetMGM) on oddsboards about 24 hours before first pitch (5:08 p.m. ET, TBS). Down 2-0 in the series, L.A.’s offense is due to break loose after losing two heartbreakers in Atlanta over the weekend.
While the traditional runline in baseball is based on a 1.5-run spread, BetRivers offers Dodgers -1 (-129) and Braves +1 (-103) for Game 3. Lay the extra half run and get the Dodgers at +125 odds at DraftKings, with FanDuel offering Braves +1.5 (-132).
The Braves are now the favorites to advance to the World Series. DraftKings lists the updated series price at Atlanta -190/Dodgers +160.
Pitching Analysis: Walker Buehler (LA)
Dodger starter Walker Buehler has been one of the most reliable pitchers to bet on in 2021. He had a 16-4 record in the regular season, and the Dodgers won 22 of his 33 starts in 2021. Going back to 2019, his team is 49-22 when Buehler toes the rubber.
Buehler’s xFIP of 3.57 ranked 10th in the National League. That figure measures his pitching effectiveness based on the factors the pitcher has in his control, such as strikeouts, walks, and the home run ball.
There’s a lot of Orel Hershiser in Buehler: like the former Dodgers ace known as “The Bulldog,” Buehler is a long-legged, thin righty who relies on movement and pinpoint control at the bottom of the strike zone.
Buehler mixes his pitches as well as anyone in the game. He throws his four-seamer about half the time, but he also regularly throws a cutter, slider, and curveball. He isn’t afraid to go with whichever secondary pitch is best in a given game, which is why he rarely has an off night.
Atlanta faced Buehler only once in ’21, and the Dodger ace allowed two earned runs in seven innings. Last October in the NLCS, he tamed the Braves in two starts, posting a 0.82 ERA in 11 innings and striking out 13.
Pitching Analysis: Charlie Morton (ATL)
It’s safe to say that the Braves wouldn’t be in the playoffs without Morton, who was acquired as a free agent last offseason. The wiry right-hander won 14 games in the regular season and has proven himself as a superb postseason hurler.
Morton made two starts against the Dodgers in 2021, allowing only three earned runs in 11 innings. This will be his first appearance in almost a week. The Braves are not afraid to go to their pen quickly if Morton struggles, and it may be the case in Game 3, where Atlanta seeks to put a stranglehold on this series.
History Tells Us The Dodgers Are Not Out Of It
If we’ve learned anything about this L.A. team the last few years, it’s that it won’t surrender. Last fall, the Dodgers fell down 3-1 in games to the Braves in the NLCS. Yet, they roared back with three straight wins to advance to the Fall Classic. In that series against Atlanta, the Dodgers lost the first two at home. This time, they return to Chavez Ravine to square the series and hopefully take a lead by holding serve at home.
Braves Vs. Dodgers NLCS Game 3 Pick
The Dodgers will narrow the Braves’ series lead with a win at home. Dodgers -169.