Here are my thought on the Breeders’ Cup.
Friday, Nov. 4
Breeders’ Cup day on starts in race six at Santa Anita and this column will feature some runners this bettor thinks will have a big say in the races; this is before the draw and some of the runners are entered in other races also. For official plays we will see you Friday morning at Palace Station.
Race 6 BC JUVENILE MILE TURF: Big Score and Bowies Hero have traded wins at Santa Anita and have some home field advantage. Lancaster Bomber is in for Aiden O’Brien, a world class trainer who has the most runners entered this year in the BC races. He doesn’t come here for the glitter but for the glory. We will use all runners by him in the exotics and give special looks at his runners in grass races. Wellabled gets the stretchout and will be the speed. Harbour Master gets his second start in the U.S. and exits the same race as Big Score and Bowies Hero.
Race 7 BC DIRT MILE: Just got into this race in a deep way and like Tamarkuz. Think trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has him ready to fire a huge shot; so far my play of the day.
Race 8 BC FILLIE JUVENILE MILE TURF: La Coronel has won back to back races since Mark Casse put her on the grass. She has the right running style for this race and looks this good. Lull, New Money Honey have both run behind her. The shippers who look the most dangerous look to be Roly Poly trained by O’Brien, who also has Hydrangea and Promise To Be True entered. Mark Casse also has Victory to Victory entered; she is fresh off the Grade 1 win in the Natalma at Woodbine.
Race 9 BC DISTAFF AT 1-1/8: This one will be an event of events to watch and bet as we get the undefeated filly Songbird, who is a perfect 5 for 5 at Santa Anita vs. the 6yo mare Beholder, who has won 13 of 15 here at Santa Anita with two seconds, and the 4yo filly Stellar Wind, who has beaten Beholder the last two meetings by a neck and a half length. But Stellar Wind is 0-2 at this distance while Songbird and Beholder have won at the distance. My upset special is Forever Unbridled who will sit back and try to make one big late run.
Saturday, Nov, 5
Race 4 BC JUVENILE FILLY AT 1-1/16: Trainer Bob Baffert looks loaded today and he starts out with American Gal who has won both of her starts and has been working a hole in the wind. He also has her stablemate Noted and Quoted entered fresh off a Grade 1 win at this distance. Todd Pletcher sends out the undefeated Sweet Loretta fresh off her Grade 1 win in the Spinaway, but she has never been beyond 7 furlongs.
Race 5 BC FILLY AND MARE TURF AT 1¼: Looks to be a lot of early speed signed on for this race. O’Brien has Alice Springs, who is one very classy 3yo filly, coming off of back to back Grade 1 wins. He also has Seventh Heaven entered and Pretty Perfect but Alice looks the one to beat of the three. Lady Eli won the Juvenile Filly turf here last year and is a perfect 2 for 2 at this distance. She has won 7 of 8 starts with her lone loss her first start of the year when not fully cranked. All and all we like Alice and Eli.
Race 6 BC SPRINT AT 6 FURLONGS: Baffert sends out the very quick Drefong who has won four of his five starts. He also sends out Lord Nelson who will sit off the super hot pace and try and run them all down late, especially if the super fast Masochistic battles Defong on the front end.
Race 7 BC TURF SPRINT DOWN THE HILL: After really getting into this race my best play first and second will come here with the Bill Mott trained Celestine, who gets a turn back in distance, and if you look at her win at 7 furlongs, well, she could beat the boys here at a big price. After her I will depend on the Track Phantom and the Professor.
Race 8 BC JUVENILE AT 1-1/16: They will be ready to head to the future book window to make some Kentucky Derby wagers after this race. Gormley and Klimt renew their battle as Klimt will try and turn the tables on Gormley. Practical Joke, who has won all three of his starts, will try and beat the speedy Syndergaard once again. The race looks to set up perfect for Practical Joke with Three Rules adding more speed to the fire, Practical Joke will be our key runner.
Race 9 BC TURF AT 1½: It will be Flintshire or one of the Euro runners. Found, who is also entered by O’Brien in the Classic, will probably go here. She is one tough customer and can beat the boys. O’Brien also sends out Highland Reel; and he also entered Pretty Perfect and Seventh Heaven. What does he have up his sleeve?
Race 10 BC FILLY AND MARE SPRINT AT 7 FURLONGS: This will be another first and second key for Saturday. Haveyougoneaway comes off a gutsy win last out at this distance and has the perfect style to win her fourth straight. By the Moon, Carina Mia, Paulassilverlining and Wavell Avenue will try and turn the tables on her with Paula looking to have the best shot. The best California runners look to be the D’Amato trained Gloryzapper and the Hollendorfer runner Tara’s Tango. Todd Pletcher sends out Curalina, who looks to have a big say and is on a nice win-every-other-race pattern.
Race 11 BC TURF MILE: It seems O’Brien is everywhere as he has Alice Springs entered here also. Wherever she runs I will be on her. He also has the 5yo Cougar Mountain entered. D’Amato sends out the very fast Midnight Storm, who is 4 for 6 at this mile turf distance and on a three race win streak but will need to deal with the very fast Pletcher runner Photo Call. If these two get into a battle it will set up for a late runner. The two main runners in here are Tepin, a 5yo mare who is 7 for 9 with two seconds at the distance, and Tourist, if he can run back to his race one back.
Race 12 THE 6 MILLION DOLLAR BC CLASSIC AT 1¼: It’s the Baffert trained Arrogate coming off one of the fastest races ever run at this distance and the highest Brisnet rating I have ever seen vs. the classy California Chrome. The question will be: Will Chrome want to try to run on the front end with Arrogate? Also, can Arrogate duplicate or even come near that last effort? We do know the Chrome will run his race. Melatonin, who is in top form (a perfect 4 for 4 here at Santa Anita and a perfect 2 for 2 at the distance), could be a price play here if the public goes all in on the top two.