The Premier League table features a crowd at the top through seven matches, as just three points separate first-place Manchester City (18 points) and sixth-place Brighton (15). That makes Sunday’s match between Brighton and Liverpool, who are currently fourth with 16 points, a massive one in both the Premier League title and top-4 race.
Brighton are coming off two losses and a draw in their last three (an EFL Cup loss to Chelsea, a 6-1 humiliation against Aston Villa in the Premier League, and a 2-2 draw against Marseille in the Europa League). With Manchester City up next on Brighton’s schedule on Oct. 21, Sunday’s Liverpool match takes on added importance. Manager Jurgen Klopp and Liverpool are coming off a controversial loss to Tottenham last weekend, followed by a Europa League win over Union Saint-Gilloise on Thursday.
Best Brighton vs. Liverpool Betting Odds Available
At Caesars, Liverpool are +103 to win on the three-way moneyline, compared to Brighton at +210. Caesars lists the draw at +305, and it has the total set at 3.5, Over (-125), Under (-105).
Brighton vs. Liverpool Betting Tips
No one in the Premier League has scored more than Brighton’s 19 goals. Liverpool have also been one of the highest-scoring teams in the EPL, with 16 goals through seven games. Given these teams’ attacking talent — and Brighton’s inconsistent defense (they have allowed 14 goals, including six last weekend against Villa, and have not recorded a shutout) — it’s easy to see this turning into a back-and-forth game with plenty of offense.
Two other markets worth checking out are “first team to score” and First Half Over/Under, which is set at . Both teams will look to start on the front foot to establish control, and that will likely lead to some early scoring, which makes Over 1.5 First Half Goals a solid play.
Brighton vs. Liverpool Player Props
For his entire tenure with Liverpool, Mo Salah has always been one of the best bets to find the back of the net, and he has three goals in seven games so far this year. But Salah has been just one of several dangerous players up top for Liverpool; in addition to Salah, Darwin Núñez, Luis Diaz, Cody Gakpo, and Diogo Jota all have scored at least two Premier League goals. Liverpool’s balance makes it hard to find value in the anytime scorer markets.
Brighton have been balanced as well, with nine players accounting for their 19 goals, but 18-year-old forward Evan Ferguson (+187, anytime goalscorer) is an intriguing option. He leads his team with four goals, but three came in one match against Newcastle on Sept. 2, and he hasn’t scored since.
Brighton vs. Liverpool Analysis and Prediction
Brighton have been one of the most dangerous — but also one of the most inconsistent — teams in the Premier League through seven games. Their record of 5-0-2 is impressive, but they were blown out in both losses. Another concern is Brighton’s form over the last five matches across all competitions. They’ve gone 1-1-3 in that stretch, with 13 goals allowed. In addition to allowing six to Villa in their last match, they conceded seven goals total over the three matches before that and Thursday’s Europa League draw against Marseille.
Liverpool have been much more consistent, with a season-opening draw against Chelsea and last week’s loss to Tottenham the only points they’ve dropped all season. The Over almost feels too obvious, and it’s hard to see Liverpool dropping points in back-to-back matches (even against opponents as strong as Spurs and Brighton).
This one ultimately feels too close to call, but a solid value play is Double Chance — Brighton or Tie at -135 on DraftKings.