The news that QB Brock Purdy will likely miss the 49ers’ game against the Bengals on Sunday could have a big impact on the team’s odds, both in the short term (for however many games he misses) and in terms of where the Niners stand in the playoff picture.
Let’s break down how oddsmakers have responded to the Brock Purdy injury for one of the top contenders in the NFC.
Bengals vs. 49ers Odds Change Following Brock Purdy Concussion News
When NFL Week 8 opening odds were released earlier this week, Caesars had the Niners listed as 5.5-point favorites, while some sportsbooks had San Francisco as a 6-point home favorite. Now, with Purdy likely missing Sunday’s game, Cincinnati is just a 4-point favorite at most books. On the moneyline, San Francisco was priced between -190 (FanDuel) and -205 (DraftKings) on Friday morning, with prices for the Bengals ranging from +160 (FanDuel) to +170 (Caesars, BetMGM, among others).
The fact the line has not moved more than 2 or 2.5 points at most books can likely be explained by two things:
- Purdy has been far from a world-beater the last two weeks after a great start to the season. In his last two games, both losses, he threw three interceptions and two TDs and was particularly ineffective against Cleveland in Week 6, completing 12-of-27 passes for just 125 yards.
- Sam Darnold showed with some strong performances last year in Carolina that he’s still a serviceable backup. In six appearances for Carolina in 2022, Darnold led a run-heavy offense that went 4-2 with him at the helm, as he threw seven TDs and just three interceptions. With San Francisco’s supporting cast (though it’s at less than 100% without Deebo Samuel), Darnold should be able to keep the Niners’ offense on track for a week or two.
Impact of Brock Purdy Injury on 49ers Futures Odds
Every week the Niners are playing without Purdy, their game odds will surely look a bit different than they would with him at 100%. But there’s been little movement on San Francisco’s futures odds — the team’s prices in the Super Bowl, NFC, and NFC West markets are yet to change substantially.
As seen above, the 49ers are still one of the top favorites in the league to win the Super Bowl, even after losing their last two games and appearing to enter a brief stretch without Purdy. They’re also, along with the Eagles, one of the two teams to beat to represent the conference in the Super Bowl.
In the NFC West, where 5-2 San Francisco has just a half-game lead on 4-2 Seattle, the Niners are still massive favorites at -500 at bet365.
How Long Will Brock Purdy Be Out?
The lack of impact of the Purdy concussion news on the Niners’ prices in futures markets tells us he’s unlikely to miss more than two games at most. It’s also worth noting here that 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said on Wednesday that Purdy is in the league’s concussion protocol after experiencing concussion-like symptoms on the way back from Minnesota, but has not yet ruled him out.
At the risk of speculating, it seems safe to say that if San Francisco still hasn’t officially ruled out Purdy playing on Sunday against the Bengals (and given that he was a limited participant in practice on Thursday), this is unlikely to be a long-term absence.