The line opened at Chiefs – 9.5, moved to 10 on most boards by Wednesday and then slipped back down again Thursday. No precipitation is in the forecast, but it probably will be windy.
Denver Broncos (6-6, 6-6 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-4, 4-7 ATS)
Time: 8:20 p.m.
Caesars SportsBook Line: Chiefs by 9.5 (47)
The skinny: Kansas City will look to continue its dominance over Denver when the AFC West rivals clash at Arrowhead Stadium in a game that was flexed to prime time.
Facts: The Chiefs have defeated the Broncos in 11 straight games (9-1-1 ATS) dating to 2015, tied for the longest current streak for any team against another. But by time they kick off, the current mark could be 12 if the Eagles beat the Jets earlier in the day.
In last season’s Week 13 meeting in K.C., the Chiefs won 22-16 as a 13-point pick during a nine-game stretch where they went 0-8-1 ATS. In their earlier 2020 meeting, Chiefs RB Cyde Edwards-Helaire had a career-best 161 ground yards in a 43-16 win at Denver. He just came off IR last week after missing five games.
Kansas City is off a bye following its 19-9 home win over Dallas. Dating to 1999, coach Andy Reid’s teams in Philly and KC have been heralded for going 26-6 after a week’s siesta. They also are 15-11-1 ATS in those situations, but last year were 0-3. Included in that was the Super Bowl drubbing against Tampa Bay, 31-9.
Denver coach Vic Fangio isn’t bad after a week off, either, during his run with the Broncos, going 2-1 SU/3-0 ATS while being an underdog of at least 7 points each time.
In Denver’s 28-13 upset home win over the Chargers last week, Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater left the game in the second quarter with a shin injury, but he played the second half. In his absence, Drew Lock threw the Broncos’ only INT of the game, had the team’s lone fumble and sole sack. And only Carolina’s Cam Newton was jealous of Lock’s 25.4 passer rating.
Bridgewater is not listed on the injury report but RB Melvin Gordon is (questionable, hip/shoulder). Fangio expects him to play, though.
Analysis: The Broncos looked mighty feisty in their win as a 2.5-point dog against the Chargers but took advantage of an L.A. team that was missing three key members of its offensive line. They also scored on a pick-six after the ball went through the hands of Chargers RB Austin Ekeler.
Kansas City, meanwhile, has shown marked improvement on defense once injured players returned to the lineup. During K.C.’s 2-3 start, it yielded 435.4 yards a game. That number has plummeted to 303.5 an outing during a 5-1 surge. And the offense has reduced its mistakes, with Patrick Mahomes pitching only one INT the past three games.
Leading the way on defense last week was DE Chris Jones, who got 3.5 sacks against Dallas. If Jones and fellow standout front-seven defenders Frank Clark and Melvin Ingram get to Bridgewater enough to knock him out of the game, the Chiefs will be a Lock, so to speak.
Broncos at Chiefs Pick
Chiefs 34, Broncos 14
Last week: 8-7 ATS, 8-7 SU
Season total: 86-91-3 (.486) ATS; 108-71-1 (.603) SU