BOXING · Sat (9/30) @ 8:00 pm ET
|T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV|
One is an excellent fighter.
The other is an excellent fighter AND a blockbuster draw.
The combined elements form the highly-awaited Sept. 30 megafight between Mexican superstar Canelo Alvarez and Jermell Charlo at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
While fans savor the matchup — the wildly popular Canelo has enticed nearly 10 million buys in 12 previous pay-per-view events — gamblers observe an attractive betting event nearing its handicapping homestretch.
Check out our Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo odds, props, and predictions.
Both Sides Find Suitable Wagers on Canelo vs. Charlo Fight
Moneyline odds around the sportsbooks of roughly -400 on Canelo will steer his bettors toward high-paying knockout props or good value on a decision.
Charlo, +300 on the moneyline, will attract gamblers who will be paid handsomely if he simply wins the fight.
There is something for everybody.
Some gamblers will choose the longshot allure of a knockout. Others will take the pragmatic decision verdict.
A draw is in the neighborhood of +1800 around the books.
The knockout prop is an interesting betting puzzle. Neither fighter has ever been stopped in a combined 100 fights, with careers totaling 34 years.
Canelo’s 59-2-2 mark with 39 knockouts was launched in 2005. Charlo’s 35-1-1 ledger with 19 knockouts has been carved since 2007.
No stoppage is possible, right?
But value-hunters will see a dynamic here.
Charlo is moving up not one, but two weight classes, from 154 to 168 pounds. Canelo may be a few pounds heavier than Charlo when they step into the ring.
Gamblers may believe that means a knockout or TKO is possible this time. If so, it will pay more than it normally should.
Here is a look at betting odds and considerations gamblers weigh during the final two weeks before the clash.
Canelo vs. Charlo Betting Overview
Most Canelo backers will skirt the moneyline. But a decision or technical decision is a still playable -120 at DraftKings.
Canelo backers may want to grab this now in case the line drifts to -130 or -140, putting good value out of reach.
Neither fighter has ever been stopped and the Over-Under of 10. 5 rounds (DraftKings) with the Over favored at -320, reveals that oddsmakers expect a long fight.
Getting -120 on the highly favored Canelo to claim a decision within that projection is a nice price.
Others will see Charlo coming up two weight classes from 154 to 168 and believe Canelo will overpower him. If so, a Canelo KO/TKO or DQ pays well enough at +230.
Charlo backers will waste no time taking moneyline action at +300 and then may dabble in a decision at +500 or a knockout at +900.
FanDuel First Betting Glance
The book sports imaginative prop wagers not only for boxing but for MMA.
It had the most bets up of any book for this fight in mid-September.
Canelo Backers: Some Bets to Consider
Canelo Grouped Knockout Rounds
- 1-3: +2600
- 4-6: +500
- 7-9: +850
- 10-12: +1200
The group knockout rounds wager is, in my view, the biggest advancement boxing has made to be viable in the betting age.
Unattractive moneyline odds used to push bettors away from the fight altogether. But these props give gamblers rounds to work with regarding a knockout and they represent a fair wager.
To those expecting a decision in this fight, knockout props are moot. But for those who go for the stoppage, group betting makes the wager realistic.
The Betting Comfort of Group Rounds
A bettor can believe one fighter will overpower another, but there are mammoth intangibles in trying to pinpoint a specific round.
One must predict when a fighter will unfurl a finishing combination, whether the corner or referee stops it, and whether the fighter is going to hold his opponent after being hurt.
It’s much more comfortable to have a three-round cushion to allow these scenarios to play out.
FanDuel gives bettors a chance at both a large and small knockout rounds target in this fight.
It provides even more time to work with, half of a fight.
Large Six-Round Target
- Canelo stoppage, Rounds 1-6: +920
- Canelo stoppage, Rounds 7-12: +480
- Charlo stoppage, Rounds 1-6: +2100
- Charlo stoppage, Rounds 7-12: +1400
Some slick gamblers will undoubtedly play two wagers. They will pick the first or second half of the fight in one stoppage bet, and try to nail a smaller window of perhaps three rounds on another wager.
Other Props That Will Be Played
To Be Knocked Down
- Canelo: +610
- Charlo: +198
Wagers That Fall in the +500 – +1900 Range (Call These a Pugilistic Stab)
- Two Knockdowns in the Fight: +700
- Charlo Dropped in Rounds 1-6: +700
- Any Knockdown in Rounds 1-4: +900
- Canelo to Win in the First Minute of Any Round: +1000
Longshot Bets in the +2000 – +4900 Range
- Charlo to Win in the First Minute of Any Round: +2600
- Canelo Wins and Both Fighters Are Knocked Down: +2700
Canelo vs. Charlo Talent Overview
Canelo sits two weight classes above Charlo. He is the undisputed four-belt holder at 168 pounds, while Charlo is a kingpin in the junior middleweight division at 154.
Charlo stays at 154 for several reasons. One is that his brother, Jermall, is a 160-pound champion. No sense going up there for him.
The natural strength of Canelo, offset by Charlo’s excellent credentials, may make some believers think he can stop Charlo late.
Taking the Betting Data at Face Value
Why are the knockout prices high?
Canelo has only lost twice, both by decision. One came against Floyd Mayweather, the sport’s No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter at the time.
The other occurred against Dmitry Bivol, an excellent boxer when Canelo tried to move up and capture a 175-pound title.
Charlo has only one loss, a decision to Tony Harrison, which he avenged with a knockout.
These fighters have not been in much trouble.
Decision bettors will believe Charlo and Alvarez are too good to be stopped and wager accordingly.
Contrarians will believe there is a first time for everything, however, and go for the knockout gold.
Canelo vs. Charlo Intangibles
Charlo is coming off a long layoff. Because of a hand injury, he hasn’t fought since a May 2022 triumph over Brian Castano.
Canelo defeated John Ryder in May 2023.
Why Canelo vs. Charlo Matters
Canelo has fulfilled the star power projected for him since his highly acclaimed 2005 debut.
He is the rock upon which both PBC and the DAZN streaming service made multi-million-dollar investments in recent years.
Canelo is a human cash register.
Charlo, from a promotional standpoint, is along for the ride. But if he has one big night, his fortunes will skyrocket.