Cantor gets early jump on NFL season win totals

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At 8:30 am (PT) on Wednesday morning Cantor Gaming sports outlets in Las Vegas became the first books in the state to offer NFL season win totals. 

The MGM Resort sports books will open their NFL season win totals Thursday. The LVH Super Book should also have their numbers posted over the weekend. 

When those two other numbers go up, that is where the real fun starts. The disparity between their numbers will slowly get them all close to each other by the bettors and that will be the market number that most of the other sports books will eventually post. 

We’ll keep you updated along the way with all the action that occurs. 

The Patriots and Packers both open up with the highest totals at 12 wins each with a slight shade on the money to the OVER. The worst expected teams are the Colts, Jaguars and Browns at 5½ with a heavy shade on the money to the UNDER.

Six teams have 10 wins posted while the 21 others are bunched together from 9½ to 6. Those 21 in the middle is where the bulk of the action will come. It’s that group that often show the greatest disparity from what the sharp player thinks a team will do and what the sports book posts. 

By being the first to post the season wins, it allows for Cantor Gaming to get action from bettors who have a strong opinion on what teams will do rather than getting wagers from those scalping prices from different numbers at other sports books. 

Once the LVH and MGM post their numbers, there will be a frenzy of action from bettors trying to set up a middle for themselves playing both sides at different books.

Because the totals are so small compared to what we see posted in baseball and the NBA, every half-a-win and every cent on the over-under is analyzed by the sharpest minds with the goal of finding an edge. Usually there are about six to seven teams the sharp players already have pegged to improve from 2011 or show a major decline.

One of those teams last season was Cincinnati, which came into 2011 with rookie quarterback Andy Dalton as the starter. In 2010 the Bengals won only four games, but when the first totals were posted in town by MGM Resorts, the Bengals were listed at 7 ½ wins for 2011. 

Most bettors had the feeling the Bengals would be slightly improved from 2010, but not better than 6 wins. This number was pummeled all the way down to 6½ and eventually 6 after all the other books posted their numbers. Most reluctantly start with 7 wins only because MGM Resorts set the market so high.

The Bengals finished 9-7 and made the playoffs last season. This year, Cantor opened the Bengals at 7 ½ wins, OVER -130.

Because of Peyton Manning’s arrival in Denver, there are sure to be a lot of differing opinions on their total of9 ½ wins. They have the highest total posted among the AFC West teams, but not by much. The Chargers are 9, the Chiefs 8 and the Raiders 7. Denver did win the division last year, but will be running a completely different offensive system to accentuate the talents of Manning. 

We’ll update in a couple of days how the first wave of action went at Cantor Gaming and then detail the type of action that came in everywhere in town once LVH and MGM posted their totals. 

First strike

The action came in fast and strong when Cantor opened betting on win totals Wednesday morning.

Cantor is taking a good size bet with a $3,000 limit on the totals and according to sports book director Mike Colbert, a bunch of those limits plays shuffled the opening numbers on a handful of teams.

“We had multiple wagers come in early on a few teams, mostly on the under,” said Colbert from his M Resort and Spa office. “The largest line movement we’ve had thus far has been bettors taking the under on the Broncos and Buccaneers. The Broncos went from 9½ under-120 to under -170 and the Bucs went from 6 under-120 to under-170.”

A few of the other early plays that came in with less enthusiasm, but still multiple times, was the Saints being bet from 10 over-125 to under-125. The Cardinals were bet from 7 under-120 to under-140 and the Chiefs went from 8 under-110 to under-125.

The only team that saw multiple limit wagers betting over the total was Cam Newton’s Panthers who went from 7 ½ over-115 to over-135.

“I was a little surprised by the Saints being bet under,” said Colbert, “but I’m really shocked at the type of action that came in on the Broncos under.”

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