It’s not even Memorial Day yet, but CG Technology’s chain of sports books have opened up spreads on every NFL game from Week 2 through Week 16 with limits set at $1,000.
Last month they opened Week 1 numbers when the schedule was announced and they’ve set the limits for those at $10,000. The difference between the two is that just about every book has Week 1 spreads up while CG is the only game in town with numbers on all the other games.
The architect of the unique numbers is CG director Tony DiTammaso who has been offering them for the last seven years. He simply inputs his initial rating on each team, adds in home field and he’s got a number for each team every week.
It’s up to the bettor to figure out what team will have a significant rating drop and which team will see a major boost after a couple of weeks of play. There are usually four or five teams a year that every oddsmaker is dramatically wrong with.
So who are those teams this season? So far since the numbers were posted on Thursday, DiTammaso says bettors have been playing the Bills and Bears in multiple weeks while also betting against the Chiefs. He factored in Tyreek Hill possibly being suspended and says his worth is a full point to the number, but bettors still found value betting against them after QB Patrick Mahomes lit up the league in his first full season as a starter.
Bettors are liking the Bills this season at the Westgate SuperBook as well as they’ve pushed their season wins from 6.5 over -160 to 7 over -125. The Chiefs were bet down there as well from 10.5 under -120 to under -150. The Bears are set at 9 over -120.
Some of the teams I have the biggest question marks with that could have significant rating changes as the season evolves is the Cardinals, Broncos, Jaguars, and Browns. I’ll be rooting for the Browns, but I have a feeling the hype is going to turn into some disappointment so I feel good about taking +3 with the Ravens at Cleveland in Week 16 or the Bengals +8 at Cleveland in Week 14. The Browns season win total is set at 9 over -140.
The Cardinals and Dolphins have the lowest rating in the NFL and both teams are set at 5 wins apiece.
Arizona is the wild card on the entire board that could be the biggest surprise. Kliff Kingsbury’s offense with rookie QB Kyler Murray should be better than most expect and if that’s true they have value every week at CG books. They’re going to play at a frantic pace, score a bunch and get scored on a bunch so when looking at the Week 1 total with Detroit at Arizona set at 48.5, it looks light. In Week 2 the Cardinals are getting +8.5 at Baltimore and in Week 3 they’re getting +3 at home against Carolina.
The Broncos get Joe Flacco and it’s not much of an upgrade from last year’s starter Case Keenum. But it’s in the Denver defense that I perceive value in all the Broncos’ numbers CG posted.
Flacco isn’t going to put big numbers up, but the Broncos’ defensive line with edge pass rushers Von Miller and Bradley Chubb aren’t going to give their opponents much time to pass the ball.
The Broncos are getting +7.5 at the Chargers in Week 5, laying only -2.5 at home against the Titans in Week 6, and getting +3 at home against the Chiefs in a Thursday night Week 7 game.
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