Chiefs give bettors edge over bookies

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Congratulations bettors, you came determined and strong to the bet windows during NFL Week 7 action and reaped the rewards while burying your favorite sports book.

Maybe bury is a bit strong, but when the house has been hammering you all season — wearing out your ATM card — there’s plenty of reason to celebrate. Give yourself a round of applause because the books don’t lose often.

The tipping point for every sports book in Nevada was the Sunday night game with the popular Chiefs as 6.5-point home favorites against the Bengals. 

“If the Bengals come through we will survive,” William Hill’s top bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich said Sunday night just prior to kickoff. “But if KC rolls, it’s gonna get ugly.”

Well, it got ugly with the Chiefs rolling to a 45-10 win. It was the final leg of most parlays.Think 6-to-1, 10-to-1 and 20-to-1 payouts all happening at once throughout the state when the score was posted. Jackpot!

“It was as close to a break-even day as can be,” said MGM Resorts sports book hub manager Jeff Stoneback prior to Chiefs game. “We’re up less than $1,000 (between Nevada, New Jersey, Mississippi) going into the late game and we need Cincy big.”

“Big” for the MGM chain of books is always six figures.

With so much public action on the Chiefs, you might wonder why the number didn’t run past -7 to -7.5, but there was some early sharp money on the Bengals that anchored the game to -6 for most the week with some places even dropping down to -5.5. Now the Chiefs are the only 7-0 team against-the-spread and they’ll play Denver at Arrowhead Stadium Sunday as a 10-point favorite. Yes, the number is inflated by 2.5-points, but that’s the luxury tax you’ll pay if wanting to bet on a team that covers the spread every week.  

“Very small loser for us which is not bad considering losing our biggest decisions like the Vikings, Patriots, and Indy,” said Westgate Las Vegas Superbook VP Jay Kornegay of Sunday’s action. “We didn’t have any big winners, but the Browns were probably our best.”

Cleveland lost in overtime, 26-23, at Tampa Bay (-3.5). The Browns looked dead for three quarters, but tied it up with a 14-0 fourth quarter. It was the fourth overtime game for the Browns this season who are now 5-2 ATS.   

“Our worst game was the Lions covering against the Dolphins,” Stoneback said. “And our second-worst was the Vikings beating the Jets. We had heavy sharp play on the Vikings and it was also heavily weighted on the Vikings with parlays.”

The Vikings (-3.5) looked like they would be in a dogfight up only 10-7 at the Jets in the first half, but then buried the Jets 27-10 in the second half to win 37-17 and bump their ATS mark to 4-2-1 ATS. 

Brock Osweiler was again the Dolphins QB and while he was amazing last week in a win against the Bears, winning two weeks in a row maybe stretched his limitations and that’s what bettors were banking on.The Lions (-3) would win 32-21. 

“It was a bad day,” said CG Technology VP of risk Jason Simbal. “Our worst game was the Patriots and our best was the Titans.”

The Patriots (-2) won their first road game of the season, 38-31, at Chicago after losing their first two road games by double-digits and they did it without Rob Gronkowski (back). This was one of the more popular plays of the week and they were hooked up in lots of three-team parlays with the Chiefs and the Rams (-9), who rolled at San Francisco, 39-10. Sharp money was taking the points with the 49ers early in the week, but small money loved the Rams. 

Most books came out of the gate strong on Sunday with the early morning game at London where the Chargers were -6.5 against the Titans. The Chargers were the popular bet and were covering 20-13 when the Titans scored a TD on fourth down with less than a minute to make it 20-19 and then they went for controversial a two-point conversion attempt to win, and well, the score ended up being 20-19. 

Alan Berg, Senior Oddsmaker at Caesars sports books said Monday night they won back about half of what they lost Sunday when the Falcons won 23-20 over the Giants. The Falcons opened as 6-point home favorites and closed at most shops at -4. The total also dropped from 54.2 down to 52. 

Eight road teams won in Sunday’s action and overall for Week 7 the favorites went 7-7 ATS with the Under going 10-4. For Week 8 action, the most popular three-team parlay and teaser is likely to be the Chiefs (-10 vs Broncos), Rams (-9 vs Packers) and Patriots (-14 at Buffalo).

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