Super Bowl 58 has its matchup, as the San Francisco 49ers will take on the defending champions, Kansas City Chiefs. Early Super Bowl odds favor San Francisco by () points to win its first Super Bowl since 1994. This should be a great game to close out the NFL campaign, and we are here to break down the Chiefs vs. 49ers odds, predictions, and best bets.
Kansas City won Super Bowl 57 and will look to become the eighth team to win back-to-back Super Bowls. They can become the first to repeat since the 2003-04 New England Patriots. Meanwhile, San Francisco can also make history, becoming the second team to win six Super Bowls, following the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Learn more within our Super Bowl 58 betting analysis and check out our best Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction and picks.
Chiefs vs. 49ers Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total
The San Francisco 49ers have been Super Bowl favorites practically the entire season. Now that they are officially NFC champions, they will get a chance to prove the oddsmakers right. On the other side, Kansas City has been the class of the NFL for half a decade, and they have proven the betting odds wrong all postseason, winning the last two games as underdogs.
Check out the Chiefs vs. 49ers Super Bowl odds from the best sports betting apps below.
Chiefs vs. 49ers Spread: Chiefs (), 49ers ()
Chiefs vs. 49ers Moneyline: Chiefs (), 49ers ()
Chiefs vs. 49ers Total: Over/Under ()
Kansas City Chiefs (14-6, 12-7-1 ATS)
Stop me if you have heard this before, but the Kansas City Chiefs are in the Super Bowl.
Despite a noticeable decline from past teams, the Chiefs won the AFC West and then knocked off everyone in their path to win the conference title. Also, unlike previous Chiefs teams, their defense has been the strongest unit.
On the season, Kansas City’s defense ranks in the top five in scoring, yards per play, yards per pass, and touchdowns per game. Although they have a little trouble stopping the run, which could be a problem against a lethal 49ers rushing attack, the Chiefs held Baltimore to only 81 yards rushing in the AFC Championship. They also shut down the Bills in the second half of the divisional round.
The rush defense has improved in the postseason, and they ranked 15th in rush success rate, which is good enough to win on any given Sunday. There are some injury concerns up front, but with how the defense has played since the second half in Buffalo, it will be tough just running over this unit.
Offensively, you are in a good spot whenever you have Patrick Mahomes. In a “down year,” Mahomes led an offense that ranks in the top 12 in EPA/play, success rate, and dropback EPA. It also helps that Travis Kelce has looked like his old self in the playoffs, and other players are stepping up, most notably Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Isiah Pacheco.
San Francisco 49ers (14-5, 9-9-1 ATS)
The San Francisco 49ers have won their eighth NFC conference title, knocking off the Detroit Lions. They will now play in Super Bowl 58, looking for their sixth Super Bowl title all time.
From the beginning of the season, the 49ers have been among the Super Bowl favorites, and it’s easy to see why. Outside of a mid-season lull, the 49ers dominated everything in their path. Although the playoffs have been a little hairy, as they’ve needed two second-half comebacks, San Francisco continues to find ways to win.
It helps when you rank in the top three in scoring on both sides of the ball and have All-Pro players littered throughout the roster. Offensively, they have a lethal skill room featuring Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey.
The offensive line is also one of the best in the NFL, which really helps mask some inadequacies at quarterback. Brock Purdy has been a winner every day since he entered the NFL, but he has had a few bad performances in some of the year’s biggest games. Once the matchup was set, though, Purdy opened as the betting favorite in Super Bowl MVP odds.
Still, you cannot ignore winning football. The Niners’ offense has been a well-oiled machine all season, ranking first in yards per game, points per play, yards per play, red zone scoring percentage, yards per pass, and touchdowns per game.
Defensively, they are equally as good, if not better. One area of concern is getting third down stops. San Francisco is allowing teams to convert just over 40% of its third downs, and that issue was on full display against the Lions, as they allowed a few third-and-long conversions.
Chiefs vs. 49ers Betting Trends
Kansas City Chiefs
- Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in its last six games.
- The total has gone UNDER in five of Kansas City’s last six games.
- Kansas City is 2-1 ATS in its last three Super Bowl appearances.
San Francisco 49ers
- San Francisco is 2-4-1 ATS in its last five games.
- San Francisco is 1-2 ATS in its last three Super Bowl appearances.
- San Francisco is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games.
Chiefs vs. 49ers Prediction: Take the Points with the Defending Champs
At this point, it is irresponsible to bet against the Kansas City Chiefs. Despite everything said about them, they find ways to win when it matters most.
However, we should not dismiss just how loaded this 49ers team is. San Fran has the most talented roster in the NFL and has answered almost every test this year. The offense and defense both play at a top-ranked level, and we have seen that on display in every game.
The problem is that the Chiefs are also one of the most well-balanced teams in the NFL and are improving on both sides in the playoffs. San Francisco has been the best team in the NFL all year, and they are probably the better team in this matchup. But, sometimes, you must ignore the trends and numbers, betting on greatness instead.
Kansas City played its first road playoff game during the Mahomes era this season, and it did not disrupt their dominance at all. Even though the Chiefs vs. 49ers odds rightfully favor San Francisco, the Chiefs have now covered the spread in three straight playoff games when playing as an underdog, which should continue in Super Bowl 58.
Chiefs vs. 49ers Best Bet: Chiefs ()
How to Watch Super Bowl 58
Date: Sunday, Feb. 11, 2024
Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. ET
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Where to Watch: CBS