Chiefs vs. Chargers Odds & Prediction: LA’s a Live Dog on Sunday Night Football

The Kansas City Chiefs are scheduled to face the Chargers in Los Angeles’ SoFi Stadium on Sunday night in Week 11 of the 2022 NFL season.

The Chiefs were listed as 5.5-point favorites last week. Now they are ranging from 5.5-6 points at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and PointsBet.

Let’s take a look at the latest Chiefs vs. Chargers odds and a SNF prediction.

Chiefs vs. Chargers Betting Line: Point Spread, Moneyline, Total

Here are Chiefs vs. Chargers odds from around the sports betting industry.

Chiefs Have Upper Hand in AFC West

Kansas City, the current top seed in the AFC, will be aiming to take a stranglehold on first place in the AFC West when it faces the second-place Chargers (5-4 overall, 6-3 ATS).

The Chiefs (7-2 overall, 4-5 ATS) already hold a two-game lead over LA in their quest of a seventh straight division crown. KC also owns the head-to-head tiebreaker by virtue of its 27-24 win over visiting LA in Week 2.

In that game, also played in prime time on TNF, the Chiefs overcame a 17-7 third-quarter deficit. The victory was keyed by a pick-six thrown by LA’s Justin Herbert from the KC 3 in the fourth quarter with the score tied at 17. That INT was the only one Herbert has thrown inside the enemy’s 45-yard-line this season.

Herbert later suffered a rib cartilage fracture, but he sat out just one play before returning. Herbert didn’t miss any starts in the following weeks, either.

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Last week, the Chiefs topped visiting Jacksonville 27-17 as a 9.5-point choice despite having a minus-3 turnover margin. Prior to that game, teams with such a negative differential had gone 0-17 SU/1-16 ATS this season.

Working in KC’s favor was that it was the only team this season not to have any penalty yards, and it got five sacks against a Jaguars offensive line that kept QB Trevor Lawrence clean in five previous games in 2022.

The Chargers, who are missing key players across the board, were 22-16 losers at San Francisco last week as an 8-point underdog, but they did hold the potent 49ers to only two TDs on five first-and-goal possessions.

Besides Herbert, the Chargers have been led offensively by Austin Ekeler, who tops all running backs in pass receptions (67), receiving yards (420), and yards after catch (149). He also has 451 rushing yards.

LA might get back key WRs Keenan Allen (hamstring) and Mike Williams (ankle). Both returned to practice this week after missing the past two games. Williams had 113 receiving yards in the loss to the Chiefs.

As for KC, QB Patrick Mahomes is having an MVP-type season (he’s the favorite at +125 at DraftKings) with a league-best 25 touchdown passes and an NFL-high 41 passes of 20-plus yards — even without departed WR Tyreek Hill. TE Travis Kelce has caught a team-high eight of those scoring passes.

But like the Chargers, injury issues exist with the Chiefs, whose top three WRs were listed as questionable at midweek — JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (illness), and Mecole Hardman (abdomen).

This is the seventh time the point total has been 50-plus for a Chiefs game. The Under has paid off in four games, including the previous matchup vs. the Chargers.

Chiefs vs. Chargers Prediction

Herbert reportedly no longer has any rib limitations, which means he should be able to throw deep and often without painful repercussions. Maybe he’ll even get to target Allen and/or Williams on Sunday night. If not, then he can look for second-year WR Joshua Palmer, who’s had 30 targets and 20 catches for 207 yards the past three weeks.

There’s also Ekeler, who provides Herbert with check-down catches in case the pass rush is too intense. Last week, though, with both of his starting tackles out, Herbert was sacked only twice on 37 drop-backs against a 49ers defense that ranks tied for fourth with 29 QB sacks. KC’s defense has had 27.

ORT Trey Pipkins III (knee) could return this week. He was limited in midweek drills.

There probably isn’t a better pass defense for Herbert to face than KC’s. The Chiefs have yielded a league-high 19 touchdown passes thanks in part to injuries in the secondary.

Over and out.

Forecast: Chargers 31, Chiefs 27

Also read: NFL Week 11 Betting Trends | NFL Week 11 Odds | TNF player props and TD scorers | Odds to make 2023 NFL playoffs