Chiefs vs Ravens Prediction, Odds: Value in AFC Championship Game Total

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The AFC Championship game is set, as the Baltimore Ravens will host the defending conference champion Kansas City Chiefs. Oddsmakers favor the Ravens by () points after opening as a field goal favorite. This should be a great game, and we are here to break down the Chiefs vs. Ravens prediction, odds, and best bets.

Kansas City is making its sixth straight appearance in the AFC Championship game. However, during this stretch, this will be the first time they play for a trip to the Super Bowl away from Arrowhead Stadium. Meanwhile, Baltimore is hosting a conference title game for the first time since 1970, when the Colts were the team in town.

Here, we will provide an AFC Championship betting preview and give our best Chiefs vs. Ravens predictions.

Let’s take a look at the Chiefs vs. Ravens odds.

Read More: NFL MVP odds | Super Bowl 58 MVP odds | Super Bowl 58 odds

Chiefs vs. Ravens Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total

Baltimore is the clear favorite to win the AFC Championship and move on to Super Bowl 58. That does not mean you should blindly take the Ravens to win. Before placing your AFC Championship bets, check out the Chiefs vs. Ravens odds from our top-rated sports betting apps to ensure you get the best odds and lines for your bets on the spread, moneyline, and total.

Spread: Chiefs (), Ravens ()

Moneyline: Chiefs (), Ravens ()

Total: Over/Under ()

Kansas City Chiefs (13-6, 11-7-1 ATS)

There is no debate about who the class of the AFC is.

Even though they are entering unfamiliar territory with a road AFC title game, the Chiefs have dominated this conference for a half-decade. Kansas City is one game away from the Super Bowl for the sixth consecutive season.

After struggling for most of the year, the Chiefs’ offense is finally starting to round back to form. Patrick Mahomes is still the best quarterback in the league, but with no real weapons in the receiver room and a noticeably aging Travis Kelce, this offense could not constantly move the ball. 

On the season, the Chiefs rank 14th in scoring (22.3), points per play (0.353), and yards per pass (6.7). In previous seasons, Kansas City was in the top five in all of those categories, signaling that the offense is not as explosive this season. 

However, they have started showing signs of life down the stretch, especially against the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round. Mahomes completed 17-of-23 passes for two touchdowns, both of which went to Kelce. They also picked up 7.7 yards per play and 9.9 yards per pass. 

Most importantly, Kansas City made the most of its red zone trips, scoring two touchdowns in four visits. That does not sound like a good conversion rate, but one of the non-touchdown drives resulted in a field goal, and the other was a brutal fumble out of the end zone on a gifted short field. 

The Chiefs will need this type of efficiency on offense against Baltimore, as they have the best defense in the NFL. But, with a banged-up secondary, Mahomes and the Chiefs offense can really do some damage in the passing game. 

Defensively, Kansas City has been great all season. They rank second in scoring (17.1), fourth in yards per play (4.7), and third in touchdowns per game (1.9). The problem is they have had some issues against the run, ranking 25th in yards per rush (4.5) and 28th in rush EPA. 

If the Ravens can grab an early lead, they can keep the ball on the ground, chew up some clock, and keep Mahomes off the field as much as possible. 

 

Baltimore Ravens (14-4, 12-6 ATS)

The AFC Championship game will be held at M&T Bank Stadium for the first time. Baltimore has the most wins in the NFL, and the presumed NFL MVP in Lamar Jackson at quarterback. The formula for an AFC title is simple:

  • Run the ball
  • Throw the ball downfield

Luckily, the Ravens have the best mobile quarterback in the league and have thrown the ball better than ever this season. Baltimore ranks fourth in yards per pass (7.3) and sixth in dropback EPA. While the Chiefs’ defense is much better against the pass, they tend to struggle at defending the middle of the field, and the Ravens’ skill room is a definite mismatch over the Chiefs’ linebackers, which should lead to a lot of success throwing between the hashes. 

Still, this Kansas City secondary is a scary unit to gameplan, so we should expect the Ravens to keep the ball on the ground and pound this front seven all night. Against Buffalo, the Chiefs allowed 182 rushing yards and two touchdowns, both of which were scored by Josh Allen. 

Even though Kansas City shut down the run in the fourth quarter, it will not be that simple in this game. Baltimore leads the league in rush play percentage (51.1%) and rush per game (32.4), and they are also third in rush success rate and rush EPA. 

The Ravens came out sluggish against the Houston Texans last week, but after they built a lead, they were able to bleed the clock and pick up big chunks on the ground. While Kansas City’s defense is much better, Baltimore has had a ton of success running the ball all season against every defense, good or bad. 

The defense has been equally as good in Baltimore, but with some health concerns in the secondary, there is a path for the Ravens to play catch-up the entire game, especially with how Mahomes has played recently. 

Chiefs vs. Ravens Betting Trends

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last five games. 
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of Kansas City’s last five games. 
  • Kansas City is 4-2 ATS in its last six games against Baltimore. 

Baltimore Ravens 

  • Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last five games. 
  • The total has gone OVER in four of Baltimore’s last five games against Kansas City. 
  • Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last five home games. 

Chiefs vs. Ravens Picks: Value on the Total

The Ravens have been rolling all season and are now one game away from a trip to Las Vegas for Super Bowl 58. However, the kings of the AFC stand in their way, bringing a lot of momentum into the conference title game. 

Kansas City has looked dead in the water multiple times this season, including the divisional round game against Buffalo. While the defense has improved dramatically this season, the offense has taken a massive step back, which is a big blow to a team carried by an explosive unit for the last five years. 

In the postseason, Kansas City’s offense is back to operating at a high level. In two games, the Chiefs are averaging 26.5 points per game and are picking up 385 yards per game, with just under 150 coming on the ground. 

Baltimore’s defense will be the best they have seen all season, but with how the offense is moving the ball, it probably is not wise to bet against Mahomes, as is true every year. But the Ravens have been too damn good all season on both sides of the ball. 

The Chiefs vs. Ravens spread opened with Baltimore giving three points, but has since moved to 3.5 points. This is a funky number for this matchup, so we will focus on the total. Based on everything we have seen this season, Baltimore will be able to move the ball downfield and score. 

The question is, can they slow down Kansas City’s surging offense? Even if they do just enough to win the game, the Chiefs will score some points and push this game over the total. 

Chiefs vs. Ravens Pick: Over () (44.5 at time of publishing)

Chiefs vs. Ravens Injury Report

How to Watch Chiefs vs. Ravens AFC Championship Game

Date: Sunday, Jan. 28, 2024

Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET

Location: M&T Bank Stadium – Baltimore, MD

Where to Watch: CBS

About the Author
DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan

Writer
DJ Corrigan is a sports betting writer for Gaming Today and has been covering the world of wagering since his days at Ohio State University. Corrigan's love of betting the Over and chasing the hungry dogs has led him to a career crunching numbers with an emphasis on NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, and MLB betting.

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