Citrus Bowl Odds & Prediction: Fade Shorthanded Purdue vs. LSU

The 2023 Citrus Bowl will feature two teams that surprised many throughout the year. We are here to break down the Citrus Bowl odds for LSU vs. Purdue, and give our official picks for a matchup between two Power Five Conference Championship game losers.

Purdue is missing a big chunk of their production on both sides of the ball due to opt-outs, and LSU got some bad news this week with a key opt-out themselves. Still, these two very talented teams are hungry for a win after both teams lost their respective Conference Championship games.

LSU vs. Purdue Betting Lines: Point Spread, Total, Moneyline

With the many highly-rated sportsbooks for you to choose from, there are varying odds and lines, so make sure you are up-to-date with the best line for you to bet on this bowl season. 

LSU vs. Purdue Betting News: Key Trends

LSU

• LSU is 0-2 ATS at a neutral site this season
• The total has gone Over in six of LSU’s last seven games
• LSU is 5-1 straight up (SU) in their last six games when playing as the favorite

Purdue

• Purdue is 2-5 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games
• The total has gone Over in 12 of Purdue’s last 18 games
• Purdue is 0-1 ATS at a neutral site this season

How to Watch LSU vs. Purdue

Date: Monday, Jan. 2 | Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Camping World Stadium: Orlando, FL
Channel: ABC

LSU Tigers (9-4, 7-6 Against the Spread)

The Brian Kelly era in Baton Rouge got off to a bad start as the Tigers had the game-tying extra point to send it to overtime blocked by Florida State. Since then, it has mostly been nothing but good for LSU as they beat Alabama, won the SEC West, and built a lot of momentum in what was thought to be a rebuilding season.

Arizona State quarterback transfer Jayden Daniels also started slowly as the starter for LSU, but he settled in nicely and has already announced that he will return for one more season. Daniels finished the season with only 16 passing touchdowns, but he completed 68.5% of his passes. In addition, he rushed for career-highs in yards (818) and touchdowns (11), both of which led the team.

LSU will only get better under Kelly, which may be a scary thought for the rest of the SEC, but this is already a very talented team. Kayshon Boutte, who originally was going to return to LSU next season but announced via his Twitter this week that he will skip the Citrus Bowl, will declare for the upcoming NFL Draft.

The Tigers will need to find a replacement for him against a tough Purdue defense, but there is a lot of skill on his team with leading receiver Malik Nabers and a solid two-headed rushing attack led by Josh Williams and Noah Cain.

Defensively, LSU will be without CB Jay Ward (who opted out) and they have dealt with a slew of injuries to their secondary, which generally would scare LSU against this Purdue offense. In this instance, however, it may not matter.

Purdue Boilermakers (8-5, 5-8 ATS)

Not only does Purdue have to deal with an alarming amount of opt-outs, but head coach Jeff Brohm has moved on to take the job at Louisville. For all of you Brohm fans in Boilermaker Nation, no need to fret, as Brian Brohm (the younger brother of Jeff and offensive coordinator this season) will serve as Purdue’s interim head coach for the Citrus Bowl.

The opt-outs have killed the excitement of this game as starting quarterback Aidan O’Connell, WR Charlie Jones, and TE Payne Durham have all opted out on the offensive side of the ball, with starting guard Spencer Holstege entering the transfer portal. Defensively, the Boilermakers will be without CB Cory Trice.

Simply put, this is basically a brand-new team. The Purdue squad we saw in Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship game against Michigan will not be showing up in Orlando. Keep that in mind when looking at the Citrus Bowl odds, as we do not know what this team will look like.

Citrus Bowl Prediction

With Brian Brohm at the helm, I cannot imagine that the scheme will change much, but with the loss of their starting quarterback and three other starters on offense, the quality of what Purdue is dialing up may be a little rusty to begin the game.

This LSU offense will be the most athletic Purdue will have seen this season, and that may be the key when trying to pick a side here. As a whole, Purdue has a strong defense. They are not great, but you can certainly be competitive with this unit. However, the Boildermakers’ defense is ranked 70th in yards per rush (4.2), 80th in yards per play (5.6), and 85th in yards per pass (7.5).

Allowing big-chunk plays will force that already undermanned Purdue offense off the sidelines, which will be why this team gets slowly choked out. If you look hard enough, you can still find LSU as a 14-point favorite, but most sportsbooks have the Tigers giving 14.5 points, which is still worth a play.

LSU is playing for pride and with a lot of returning production for next season, it would mean a lot for LSU to get that 10th win, and keep this program trending in a positive direction. For Purdue, they are going through a coaching transition, which is always tough to deal with. 

Pick: LSU -14.5; odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

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