College Football Picks & Parlays: Big 12, American Athletic Highlight Conference Championships

The slate of games is smaller this weekend, but for a good reason: it’s conference championship weekend.

Every game means something and features two of the best teams the conference has to offer. However, while it makes for great TV, it can be harder to settle on a bet for these games.

We are here to help with a few of our favorite college football picks and parlays for conference championship weekend.

Big 12 Championship Odds: Point Spread, Total, Moneyline, Pick

TCU (12-0 straight up, 9-2-1 against the spread) beat Kansas State (9-3 SU, 8-3-1 ATS) and was a 3.5-point road favorite when these two teams met back in Week 8. The Horned Frogs went on to win that game 38-28, but beating a team twice in the same season is never easy.

It’s been easy to overlook TCU all season since they were a team that was not supposed to be competitive this season — let alone a contender for a conference championship (or national). But facts are facts: the Horned Frogs are a solid, talented, and well-coached team. They have adjusted well in-game throughout the season, including in their previous meeting with the Wildcats (at one point, K-State led that game, 28-10).

Beating the Wildcats again will not be easy, of course. Running back Deuce Vaughn is small but elusive; he only had 12 carries for 83 yards in the first game but has nearly 1300 for the season, including seven 100+ yard days.

Betting Analysis

K-State is a talented team, but they will lose this game because they are too dependent on the running game. While they have the No. 17 rushing game in the country, they are No. 94 in the passing game. Their defense is good enough to slow TCU down, but the Horned Frogs have a more balanced offense that will eventually break through.

Our pick: As long as the importance of the game doesn’t lead to too many mistakes (they’ll make the CFP for the first time with a win), TCU will win this game.

Also read: 2022 CFP odds and predictions | Heisman odds | NCAA football championship odds

American Athletic Championship Odds: Point Spread, Total, Moneyline, Pick

UCF (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) was a one-point road dog against Tulane (10-2 SU, 10-2 ATS) when these two teams met in Week 11. The Knights used a 336-yard day in the run game to take down the Green Wave, 38-31.

Tulane has not been bad against the run this season giving up around 154 yards per game (No. 74 in the country), but they couldn’t slow down UCF’s top-ten run game back in Week 11. Michael Pratt is a solid quarterback, and they have a good run game. But they must be on the field to get into a rhythm. If they can’t slow down the UCF rushing attack, that will not happen.

However, the Green Wave is ranked higher than the Knights regarding the time of possession (No. 50 to No. 44), but the difference between the two is only seven seconds.

Betting Analysis

The key to the game will be the turnover margin. Tulane had two in Week 11, but neither led to points for UCF. But when the Green Wave defense has forced at least one turnover this season, the team is 8-0 — and UCF has not done a good job of protecting the ball this year. The Knights had at least one turnover in every game but three (vs. Temple, SMU, and Tulane).

Our Pick: UCF +4; Tulane is playing well right now, but so is UCF. There is no reason to think this will not be a close game (despite turnovers).

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MAC Championship Odds: Point Spread, Total, Moneyline, Pick

Toledo (7-5 SU, 4-8 ATS) looked like the team to beat in the MAC after getting off to a 5-1 start in conference play but have lost their last two. Ohio (9-3 SU, 9-3 ATS) went 7-1 in conference play, with the one loss coming against Kent State in their MAC opener.

Toledo has a capable offense that ranks inside the top five in scoring (No. 2), rushing (No. 3), and passing (No. 4) in the MAC. They have the No. 1 passing defense in the conference, and they aren’t bad against the run either (No. 6). But they turn the ball over way too much. They had seven in the two losses to end the regular season (four vs. Western Michigan and three vs. Bowling Green) and 16 in their last five games.

Ohio has been a reasonably consistent team throughout the season. Unlike Toledo, they do a solid job of protecting the ball (No. 6 in the nation regarding turnover margin).

Betting Analysis

Our pick: This could be a good, close, entertaining game if Toledo protects the ball, but there is no reason to believe they’ll start doing so this week. Turnovers will cost them the game this week.

College Football Parlays: Conference Championship Weekend

The advantage is with the house when it comes to parlays, but it is still fun to play a few from time to time as long as you are careful. You are more likely to lose a parlay than win, so do what you can to reduce the risk and increase your chance of winning.

So, keep them short (two or three legs). Let’s take a look at a few college football parlays and same-game parlays (odds via FanDuel):

Parlay No. 1: Big 12, American Athletic, and MAC Championship Games

• TCU: -2.5 (-110)
• UCF: +3.5 (-105)
• Ohio: +128
• Parlay Odds: +749

Since the moneyline odds on the Big 12 title game for TCU is -140, let’s go with the spread instead. K-State will keep it exciting but look for TCU to pull way in the second half.

A $100 wager will result in an $849 payday, your stake plus $749 in winnings.

Also read: SEC Champ | ACC Champ | Big Ten Champ

Parlay No. 2: SEC, ACC, and Big Ten Championship Games

• SEC: Over 51.5 pts (-115)
• Big Ten: Over 51.5 pts (-110)
• ACC: North Carolina +7.5 (-108)
• Parlay Odds: +578

Georgia has been the most dominant team in college football this season, but LSU is not just another team. The Tigers are a talented squad that could put up a solid fight. Enough of one to win either SU or ATS? That’s hard to say. But between the two, the final score will be over 51.5 points.

The same is true for the Big Ten title game. There is no reason to think Purdue can beat Michigan, but the spread is massive. Once the game is in hand, Jim Harbaugh may start pulling guys to ensure they remain healthy for the CFP. Take the over.

As for the ACC title game, look for Drake Maye and the UNC passing game to take advantage of the Clemson secondary, much like South Carolina did. Will the Tar Heels pull off the upset? Maybe, but if they don’t, they will not lose by more than a touchdown.

A $100 wager will result in a $678 payday, your stake plus $578 in winnings.

Same-Game Parlay No. 1: Big 12 Championship Game

• Max Duggan: Over 251.5 passing yards (-114)
• Kendre Miller: Over 102.5 rushing yards (-114)
• TCU: -2.5 (-104)
• Parlay Odds: +433

Duggan threw for less than 251.5 yards in three of the last four games, but he did have 280 against K-State earlier in the year. Miller has slowed down the last two weeks (72 yards vs. Iowa State and 41 vs. Baylor) but had 100+ in six of their seven other conference games, including a 153-yard day against K-State.

The K-State defense is not good enough to take away either. Don’t count on either to go well over their totals, but both should go over.

A $100 wager will result in a $533 payday, your stake plus $433 in winnings.

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