Commanders vs. Bears Odds & Prediction: Washington a Short Road Dog on TNF

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The Washington Commanders hit the road to face the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football.

Commanders vs. Bears odds opened with Chicago as a 1-point favorite. Chicago is now ranging from 1-1.5 points at DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet and BetMGM. It’s the first meeting between the two teams since Chicago beat host Washington 31-15 in 2019 as a 4-point choice.

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Let’s take a look at the latest odds as well as our Commanders vs. Bears prediction.

TNF Odds: Point Spread, Moneyline, Total

Here are Thursday Night Football odds across the sports betting industry as both teams have been struggling offensively as of late. Washington averages just 18 points per game, and Chicago checks in at 17.2 ppg.

WAS Commanders vs CHI Bears Odds NFL Odds

NFL · Thu (10/13) @ 8:15pm ET

WAS Commanders at CHI Bears
Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois

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Two Struggling Teams Tangle on TNF

A pair of squads on the skids — with both listed at +50000 to win the Super Bowl — will aim to end losing streaks in this NFC battle.

The Commanders, who have dropped four in a row since their season-opening win over Jacksonville and are three games deep in the NFC East cellar, got off to a strong start offensively behind new QB Carson Wentz. The unit generated four TDs in both of its first two games, with that eight-TD total matching the most by any team through Week 2.

But since then Washington has had four touchdowns total in falling to Philadelphia, Dallas and Tennesse, who are a combined 12-3. Now they get the 2-3 Bears.

It’s not like the Commanders aren’t moving the ball, they’re just not closing the deal. Last week, Wentz appeared on the verge of directing a game-endng TD drive to beat the Titans, but on the 18th play of an 87-yard march he threw an interception as time expired. Two weeks earlier, he directed a 93-yard drive at Philadelphia before Washington turned the ball over on downs. That matched the longest such march this season by a team without scoring a touchdown.

Contributing to that slump? The Commanders have had a -7 turnover margin in 2022, second worst in the NFL. Yet when Wentz was with Indianapolis last year, the Colts had a +14 differential, tied for the best in the league. Go figure.

Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)

And, speaking of being buried in the cellar, that’s where Chicago’s passing game stands behind QB Justin Fields with 116.6 yards per game, which is 37.6 yards below the 31st-ranked club. That’s what happens when a team runs more than 60 percent of the time. No other team does that at even 55 percent.

Thus, it’s a good thing that the Bears, losers of two straight, have had success on the ground, standing fifth on the rushing chart. Their Week 3 performance against Houston was a league best. Chicago ran for 281 yards while rallying to a 23-20 victory to go 2-0 at home.

But what’s with the league’s 15th-leading rusher, Khalil Herbert, getting only four of the 24 carries last week in a 29-22 loss at Minnesota? That was a game in which Chicago erased a 21-3 second-quarter deficit, the biggest comeback this season by a team that wound up losing anyway.

On the injury front, Wentz has been limited in drills this week because of a shoulder issue. But the team insists it won’t keep him from playing. Just in case, backup Taylor Heinicke has plenty of experience, starting 15 games last year in relief of the injured Ryan Fitzpatrick.

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Analysis: The Commanders appear to match up well with the run-heavy Bears, allowing only 3.9 yards a carry, which ranks seventh best in the league. And if that invites Chicago to throw, all the better for the Commanders since Fields is the league’s 31st-ranked passer. Twice he’s failed to hit even half his passes in a game.

And on offense, Washington got a big morale boost with the return of hard-running rookie RB Brian Robinson, from Alabama, who suffered gun-shot injuries as a carjacking victim this summer.

And one more thing: For the third consecutive Thursday, a rookie coach will be readying for a game on only three-days’ prep time. On this occasion, it’s Chicago’s Matt Eberflus. Miami’s Mike McDaniel and Denver’s Nathaniel Hackett were in that position in Weeks 3 and 4 and both lost outright and against the spread. Dating to 2014, first-year bosses in this scenario have gone 4-24 straight up and 7-21 ATS.

Forecast: Commanders 24, Bears 14

Also read: Risers and fallers in Super Bowl 57 futures odds | NFL Week 6 Betting Trends

 

About the Author
Bob Christ

Bob Christ

Bob Christ, based in New Mexico, has been a gaming writer (primarily the NFL) for almost four decades, with his work appearing in publications/websites across North America. He's a big fan of the Arkansas Razorbacks, Philadelphia's Eagles and Phillies, and inexplicably the NHL's Winnipeg Jets.

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