As I have stated in this column many times, in the NFL when the original favorite switches it is a very high percentage play to bet on the team that opened as the favorite and against the team that became the new favorite.
Once again it held true as the Arizona Cardinals opened as a 3-point favorite in some spots and a 2½ point favorite in most spots but it seemed like every bettor who had a 20 dollar bill wanted to bet on the Pack, including me until they became the favorite.
I did a lot of driving and surfing and found several spots that had Green Bay -3 so I did a little plunge taking the Cards plus the three.
I sat down with my Racing Form and a nice glass of Merlot and watched as the Cards came out with a vengeance to go up 17-0.
I don’t know how many of you bettors out there have played the in-running betting but this was one game that you could have made some great plays as the Cardinals became a 10½ point favorite during the game.
Now, here I am holding a ticket on the Cards +3 and now I go up and take the Packers +10½ and go for a partial middle as I did not take my entire original bet back, just half.
The game just got crazy as the total moved up to 55 but you could tell no one was going to stop the other team so another wager over the new total was justified.
In this case the game turned out perfect going way over the total and falling right in my middle as the Cards won by six in OT.
There are four real nice Divisional Playoff games this week, if you have the time and some cash just take a shot and play and you have several options, “M” Resort, The Venetian, Palazzo. Wynn also does in-running on the side and total during the game after every score.
Now let’s take a look at the upcoming games and see if we can get some kind of handle on what we may want to bet.
Saturday, Jan. 16
Arizona Cardinals +7 total 57 at New Orleans Saints: On the surface you just want to run up to the window and bet this game over the total but not so fast. The Saints seemed to have lost some of their quick strike offense as the season wound down with their last four games all going under the total and in their last three games they scored 17, 17 and 10 with no covers in their last five games. Now they have been on the shelf and the Cards are coming off a big win. I will start with a bet on the Cards +7½ as it may get there but if not I will buy it up and lay the -120. I will bet the game under but will wait as this total can only edge up. Be in a good spot for in running or making a half time bet because this could be a good bet in the second half. CARDINALS +7½ AND UNDER 57
Baltimore Ravens +6½ total 45 at Indianapolis Colts: Every Wild Card game went over the total but I think in this Divisional Playoff round you will see at least three games go under and this will be another under game. When these two teams met in Indianapolis Nov. 22 the Ravens failed late to get the win losing 17-15. If you watched the Raven’s intensity last week in their dominating win at New England it just makes you believe that they can pull this game out with a rousing defensive performance just like the one in their first meeting. They have a big advantage of playing last week while the Colts were a no show in their last two regular season games losing to the Jets 29-15 and then Caldwell rested his starters in their last game losing to Buffalo 30-7, advantage Ravens. RAVENS +6½ (lay the -120 and buy it up to +7) UNDER 45
Dallas Cowboys +2½ total 46½ at Minnesota Vikings: I really hate it when a line is 2½ and I will have to wait and see where this one goes. The Cowboys have been on fire since beating the Saints December 19th winning four straight with one monster defense. Three of those last four games went under the total with the only game going over their last game when they beat the Eagles 34-14. Cowboys look like they believe and if their defense can stop Mr. F they will win. I will not take the +2½ but would take +3 if it ever gets there, if not I will bet the Cowboys on the money line and bet the game under. If the game goes under the Boys get the money. COWBOYS +3 OR MONEY LINE AND UNDER 46½
New York Jets +7½ total 42½ at Chargers: This will be the one chalk that I will be playing on and if possible I will buy this game down to -7 but I will have them in all my teaser bets as the Chargers just could be the best team this year winning their last eleven games. Jets just do not have enough fire power to overcome the Chargers. CHARGERS IN ALL TEASERS AND CHARGERS -7½
Question? Comment? E-mail me at: Richard Saber