Cowboys vs Packers Predictions and Odds: Dallas Touchdown Favorites at Home

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Dallas Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy coached Green Bay for 13 seasons (2006-18) and won the 2011 Super Bowl with the Packers. McCarthy’s present and past teams meet Sunday, and the NFC Wild Card odds solidly favor the Dallas Cowboys.

Dallas is a 7.5-point favorite (-110 or better) at most sportsbooks. The total is 50.5. The moneyline: Cowboys (-365), Packers (+285). Read more to learn our Cowboys vs. Packers predictions and analysis below to guide your betting. View our NFL betting promotions when signing up to score a bonus before wagering on NFL Wild Card action.

 

Cowboys vs. Packers Matchup

The second-seeded Cowboys have won 16 consecutive games at home. They are 8-0 this season at home with a winning margin of 21.5 points. The NFC East champion Cowboys are 12-5 and are 10-7 against the spread.

The seventh-seeded Packers are 9-8, both overall and against the spread. Green Bay has won nine of the last 10 meetings against Dallas, which might not mean much on Sunday.

Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott is having an MVP-type season, the best of his career. He completed 410 of 590 passes for 4,516 yards, 36 touchdowns, and nine interceptions.

Prescott’s favorite receiver, CeeDee Lamb, had an NFL-high 135 receptions for 12 touchdowns. The Dallas passing game benefits from the balance provided by a strong running game led by Tony Pollard (1,005 yards, six touchdowns).

Dallas ranks fifth in scoring defense (18.5 points per game) and fifth in total defense (299.7 yards per game). The Cowboys pass rush, led by Micah Parsons, has 46 sacks (13th in the league). Parsons has 14 sacks (seventh in the league) and when he doesn’t get to the quarterback, he disrupts the opponent’s offense.

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Statistically, Dallas appears to have the edge. The Cowboys ranked first in scoring (29.9 per game) and fifth in scoring defense (18.5 per game) — a difficult combination to defeat.

Dallas also was second in scoring differential (+194).

Dallas’ major concern is its offensive line, which injuries have plagued. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones told Dallas radio station 105.3 The Fan this week that left guard Tyler Smith is expected to play, a major boost to the Cowboys.

Green Bay’s Jordan Love became the starter this season, and he has been impressive. He had a good season — 372-of-579 passes for 4,159 yards, 32 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Love spent two seasons as an apprentice behind Green Bay starter Aaron Rodgers.

The transition from four-time MVP Rodgers to Love has gone smoother than expected. The inexperienced Love stepped in and showed he could lead a winning NFL team.

The Packers are 4-5 on the road. The last time Green Bay won a road playoff game was in 2017, when the fourth-seeded Packers defeated the top-seeded Cowboys.

Cowboys vs. Packers Predictions

Player Props at BetMGM

Since the quarterback touches the ball on every play, QB prop bets tend to be the most interesting.

 

Jordan Love, Packers: Over 248.5 yards passing (-115). Love might be forced to play from behind against Dallas, which isn’t a formula to win the game but could boost his stats.

Jordan Love, Packers: Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+100). Since Love’s favorite receiver, Christian Watson, has missed the last five games with a hamstring injury and his status is uncertain, under might be the best play.

Dak Prescott, Cowboys: Over 277.5 yards passing (-115). Prescott has thrown for more than 277.5 yards seven times this season. Expect Dallas to come out firing — as it has done all season — and expect Prescott to hit the over.

Dak Prescott, Cowboys: Over 1.5 touchdown passes (-210). Prescott had multiple touchdown passes in 11 games and had at least one touchdown pass in 15 games.

Tony Pollard, Cowboys: Over 59.5 rushing yards (-114) at FanDuel. Despite Dallas’ excellent passing game, Pollard will get his touches.

Game Prediction

Dallas is a touchdown-plus favorite on merit. The Cowboys are a team of stars and strength along both lines. They have one of the top-performing quarterbacks in the league with Prescott. Lamb only trails Tyreek Hill in terms of total receiving yards.

However, expect the Packers to put up a good fight. Green Bay finished the season on a 6-2 run, led mainly by Love. It will be in the hunt if Green Bay can muster some running attack.

If you like favorites, the Cowboys are your team. If you’re interested in an underdog, Green Bay has the potential to scare the Cowboys and cover the spread.

Pick: Cowboys -7

Cowboys vs. Packers Game Information

  • When: Sunday, Jan. 14
  • Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
  • TV: FOX
About the Author
Chuck Bausman

Chuck Bausman

Sports Betting Writer
Chuck Bausman is a sports betting writer at Gaming Today. Bausman has worked 30+ years in journalism and is a former executive sports editor of the Philadelphia Daily News and managing editor of Philly Hockey Now. He is a journalism professor at Rider University.

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