Odds Analysis: Giants at Dodgers, Game 3 of NLDS
Your sportsbooks list the Dodgers as favorites for Game Three in LA on Monday. BetMGM has the Moneyline at +165 for the Giants and starting pitcher Alex Wood. I would take that.
The sportsbooks have to make Max Scherzer the odds favorite in this game, but that once again discounts the Giants, who have been winning when it matters all year.
This could be a game where the First 5 Innings line of +165 Giants and -200 Dodgers could be a bad play, but the game itself will end up in the W column for the Giants.
Don’t assume the Giants are going to get into a 2-1 hole by losing Game 3 just because Scherzer is on the mound at home. San Francisco hasn’t trailed the Dodgers by as much as a game since May 29.
Giants Will Find a Way to Beat Scherzer
The San Francisco Giants have been one step ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers all season. When LA won 16 games in May, the Giants won 18. When the Dodgers won 14 in July, the Giants won 15. When the Dodgers won 22 games in September and October to close out the season, the rival Giants won 23.
In ’21, the Giants know the answers before the questions are being asked, and it’s infuriating the Dodgers, who had to settle for second-best despite winning 106 games.
After getting walloped in an 11-4 defeat Saturday at home in Game Two, the G-Men will get a victory in Dodger Stadium on Monday to reclaim home-field advantage.
Don’t get sucked into a sentimental play and pick the Dodgers to win just because they are home with their ace on the hill. The Giants are going to take this game.
Scherzer Isn’t Getting Swing-and-Misses
Don’t get me wrong, I love me some Max Scherzer. But Scherzer has a lot of pitches on his right shoulder this season, and for his career. He may win his fourth Cy Young Award, but in his last three starts he’s been rusty, allowing 11 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings.
The Giants was second in all of baseball in home runs this season with 240. They can get the longball from any part of their lineup, and Max gave up 23 of them this season. Of concern is the fact that Scherzer couldn’t get his typical swing-and-misses in his start last Wednesday in the NL Wild Card Game. He struck out only four batters. If Scherzer has to throw a lot of pitches to get outs on Monday, the Giants will burn him.
Wood Will Start for Giants
Lefty Alex Wood faced the Dodgers three times in the regular season and his team lost twice. He didn’t pitch terrible, but he had some bad luck and his teammates didn’t score much for him. That will be different at Chavez Ravine on Monday.
According to Baseball Savant, Wood uses his sinker (a sinking fastball) almost half the time. He likes to work fast and throw strikes, which is unusual and refreshing in today’s game. Watch the home plate umpire and the strike zone early in this game to get a feel as to how well Wood’s night will go. If the ump is calling the low strike, Wood’s sinker will get a lot of whiffs or easy groundouts.