A defeat in Game 3 has the Los Angeles Dodgers one loss away from seeing its season come to an end despite 11 regular season wins. Most galling: it would come at the hands of the San Diego Padres, a team that usually serves as the nail to LA’s hammer.
Odds on the Dodgers to win this NL Division Series are +175 according to DraftKings Sportsbook, which is offering a $50 Free Bet and a $1,000 Bonus to new users.
Game 4 odds from FanDuel show the San Diego Padres at -120 as the home team, and the Dodgers at +102. This game is a tough pick on the moneyline, but San Diego seems to have the edge in the starting pitching matchup. More on that below.
The Padres bullpen continues to be unbeatable, having recorded 13 shutout innings in this series, and finishing off a tense 2-1 win on Friday in Game 3. It was the first playoff game played in San Diego in 16 years.
The Padres are -200 to win the series from BetMGM, -180 at Caesars, -194 from FanDuel, and priced at -215 by the oddsmakers at DraftKings. That means bettors need to wager $215 to win $100 on the Padres winning this series, which is best-of-five.
This is the first time in this series that the sportsbooks have the Dodgers listed as underdogs to win. Los Angeles has won the pennant three times in the last five seasons. The Padres have never won the World Series, but went all-in at the trade deadline, acquiring star outfielder Juan Soto and closer Josh Hader, as well as other players to bolster their roster.
In Game 3, San Diego did just enough to scrape past the Dodgers, scoring single runs in the first and fourth innings. Trent Grisham, maligned in the regular season when he batted only .184 and struck out more often than a Kardashian posts on social media, hit his third homer of this postseason. Four relievers marched in from the San Diego bullpen and allowed only one hit and no runs in 3 2/3 innings. The Dodgers led the league in scoring, but have managed only one run in the last 15 innings.
Odds on the Padres to win the World Series are now listed at +500 from DraftKings, the third shortest of the remaining playoff teams. The same sportsbooks has Los Angeles at +600. Should LA win Game 4 on Saturday evening, they will host Game 5 on Sunday in Dodger Stadium.
Stay up to date here: Current 2022 World Series odds
Dodgers vs. Padres Game 4 Odds
Here are MLB Playoffs odds for Game 4 of the National League Division Series between the Dodgers and Padres, scheduled for Saturday, Oct. 15 in San Diego:
MLB · Sat (10/15) @ 10:08pm ET
|Petco Park, San Diego, CA|
Our Pick: SD Padres at -5000. Get a $50 Free Bet & $1,000 Bonus at DraftKings
Dodgers, Padres Game 4 Preview
Last season the Dodgers survived their NL Division Series against division rival the Giants in five games. This October another California team, this one from sunny SoCal, is threatening to end LA’s season.
But the Dodgers only need one win to get back to comfy Chavez Ravine with its yellow seats and Dodger Dogs. Can the Dodgers stay alive? The challenge is heady: San Diego’s bullpen is pitching well, and Game 4 starter Joe Musgrove is more trouble than a little bit.
Still, Dave Roberts dugout is filled with players who’ve “been there, done that.” Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Will Smith, and the Big Blue Wrecking Crew are not unfamiliar with must-win games.
A player to watch in Game 4 is “Captain Caveman” Justin Turner, the power-hitting redhead for the Dodgers. While he hasn’t had a good season, nor has he been dangerous this postseason (1-for-10), Turner has three homers off Musgrove this season. He’s batting a Rogers Hornsby-like .429 off Musgrove. We look for the Turner vs. Musgrove matchups to be critical in this game.
But if the Padres get a lead into the fifth or sixth inning, Bob Melvin will have no problem emptying his bullpen like a generous uncle handing out quarters to his nephew. The Padres have gotten 13 scoreless innings from their relief corps, and if that continues, this 111-win Dodgers team will be watching the next round of the playoffs on their Apple Watches.
As it often does, this series will be decided by the stars: Musgrove, Freeman, Soto, Manny Machado, Trea Turner, and Betts will likely end up succeeding or failing. Either way, they’ll have a hand in determining which team advances to the NL Championship Series.
Padres vs. Dodgers Pitching Matchup, Game 4 NLDS
Tyler Anderson (15-5, 2.57 ERA) vs. Joe Musgrove (1-0, 0.00 ERA in postseason)
We give a strong advantage to the Padres here. Musgrove looked like a man on a mission (historical Padres reference) in his start in the Wild Card round. He features four pitches he will throw as much as 20% of the time: his sweeper slider; a four-seamer; cut fastball; and a curveball that drops or can slant in on lefthanded batters. He struck out five in seven innings in his start against the Mets. The big righty had a 3.63 ERA in three starts against LA in the regular season, but this is a new time, and Musgrove in our eyes, seems like the pitcher who could emerge as a star this October.
Anderson has gaudy numbers, but don’t be fooled: he is a contact pitcher who could struggle against the Padres the way their lineup is rolling. However, the lefty posted a 1.88 ERA in four starts against the Friars this season.
San Diego Padres starting pitcher Joe Musgrove (44) delivers against the New York Mets during the first inning of Game 3 of a National League wild-card baseball playoff series, Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022, in New York. (AP Photo/John Minchillo)
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Dodgers, Padres NLDS Game 4 Prediction
We want to believe this series will get to a Game 5. These two teams, this rivalry, it deserves a Game 5. But, Musgrove is too dialed in to bet against. We like the Padres to win this in a one-run game with Musgrove going into the sixth at least. Look for Machado and Grisham (again) to lead the Brown and Yellow lineup.
PICK: Padres on the moneyline. Stay away from the run line, this will be a one-run game.