Super Bowl 2022 Odds: Dolphins’ Price Shortens After Bradley Chubb Trade

Heavy Super Bowl favorite Buffalo (+230 at FanDuel, BetMGM, and PointsBet) continues to see its odds shorten. The number was +290 before Sunday night’s 27-17 home win over Green Bay. Unbeaten Philadelphia is next at +550 after going to 7-0 with Sunday’s 35-13 win versus Pittsburgh. The Eagles’ odds have held steady the past two weeks.

Way at the bottom of the boards are Houston and Pittsburgh at +100000 (1000-1).

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Here are a few of the teams making a move up the Super Bowl odds ladder:

Miami Dolphins (+3000 at DraftKings, BetMGM)

All of a sudden, the Dolphins have the makings of a Super Bowl contender.

First, on Sunday, third-year QB Tua Tagovailoa showed no ill effects of the head trauma he suffered in back-to-back games in Weeks 3 and 4 that caused him to sit out two games (both losses).

Against Detroit, he threw for three TDs and 382 yards in a 31-27 comeback victory. His passer rating of 138.2 was a career-best.

Then on Tuesday, the team made moves to bolster the offense and defense in separate deals, which dropped their Super odds from +3500.

The blockbuster was acquiring Broncos LB Bradley Chubb, who was tied for the team lead in sacks with 5.5. He’ll join a defensive unit in which no player has more than three. And by coincidence, Chubb will get to make his Miami debut against a Chicago team that has allowed the most sacks this year with 31.

Then on offense, they dealt for San Francisco RB Jeff Wilson Jr., who was the 49ers’ leading rusher and had a 5.1 average.

Considering the Dolphins gave Super Bowl favorite Buffalo its only loss, they appear to have a strong chance to grab a high-ranking wild-card berth.

However, there was no change to the Dolphins’ Super Bowl futures at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas.

“I’m at 30-to-1, I can’t go lower than that,” oddsmaker Ed Salmons told Gaming Today’s Marcus DiNitto. “Everybody’s waiting for Chiefs and Bills in the AFC.”

San Francisco 49ers (+1300 at DraftKings, FanDuel)

Two weeks ago, the 49ers’ Super Bowl odds lengthened to a season-high +2500 after a 28-14 loss in Atlanta as a 3.5-point favorite. Injury woes played a role, especially with All-Pro OLT Trent Williams being out. And then came a 44-23 home loss to Kansas City.

Now the 49ers are getting healthier, and the recent acquisition of RB Christian McCaffrey in a trade with Carolina has given the offense an extra boost to go with a defense that ranks first in the league.

Sunday’s resounding 31-14 road win in LA against the defending Super Bowl champion Rams has resulted in SF’s Super Bowl odds dropping from +1700 to +1300, the second shortest among NFC teams behind Philly.

That’s startling for a team that’s 4-4 (4-4 Against the Spread) and a game out of first in the NFC West behind Seattle.

Even more startling is that the 49ers won’t have to play another true road game until Dec. 15.

After this week’s bye, they play host to the LA Chargers on Nov. 13 and then take on Arizona in Mexico City, which is considered a Cardinals home game. Following that will be three straight games in San Francisco against teams traveling across the country: New Orleans, Miami, and Tampa Bay.

With regard to those injuries, the 49ers already have Williams back and now hope that after their break, they’ll see the return of all-purpose RB/WR Deebo Samuel (hamstring) and CB Jason Verrett, who recently has been activated off the PUP list after suffering an ACL tear.

Dallas Cowboys (+1500 at DraftKings)

The Cowboys (6-2 Straight Up/Against the Spread) have come on strong since their opening-game 19-3 home loss to Tampa Bay in which QB Dak Prescott suffered a thumb injury that sidelined him for five games.

But the betting world didn’t see that coming when their odds plummeted from +2500 to open the season to +5000 the day after Prescott got hurt and no high-profile QB was brought in as an emergency fill-in.

Thanks to a defense that ranks seventh in the league and has by far the most sacks with 33, Dallas has won six of seven since, carrying an offense that scored only nine TDs during backup QB Cooper Rush’s five-game stretch in charge.

With Prescott back, the Cowboys’ offense also has scored nine TDs, all coming in the team’s last six quarters, including on four straight possessions to open Sunday’s 49-29 home win Sunday over Chicago.

Like the 49ers, the Cowboys also will be enjoying a bye this week and reports indicate RB Ezekiel Elliott (knee/thigh) will return to face the Packers in Green Bay. Not that he was missed last week when fourth-year RB Tony Pollard had 131 yards on the ground and three TDs, both career highs.

Also read: Eagles’ odds to go undefeated

Atlanta Falcons (+10000 at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM)

No division leader in the NFL has odds as long as the Falcons (4-4 SU/5-3 ATS), who hold a one-game lead in the NFC South over Tampa Bay and New Orleans.

This all occurred despite Atlanta being an underdog in all but last week’s bizarre 37-34 overtime win over Carolina. Hats off to the Falcons.

They have won four of their past six games despite being without four-time All-Pro RB Cordarrelle Patterson the past four weeks after he suffered a knee injury but reportedly is on track to return soon.

QB Marcus Mariota is finally being allowed to air it out after having only 27 passes total in Weeks 6 and 7 versus San Francisco and Cincinnati. In last Sunday’s game, he had season-highs with 28 passes (20 completions) for 253 yards and three TDs.

On the downside, the Falcons are hurting without their star cornerbacks. A.J. Terrell (questionable/hamstring) is listed day to day, and Casey Hayward (shoulder/IR) is out indefinitely. Both missed last week’s game in which third-string Carolina QB PJ Walker passed for 317 yards.

On the good side, Atlanta has the second-easiest remaining strength of schedule, according to Tankathon.

Now for the fallers. Last week, Indianapolis, Green Bay, and the LA Rams were featured in this slot. After all lost last week, their numbers continued to be long: the Colts at +20000, the Packers at +5500, and the Rams at +4000.

Here are the newest to plummet down on the board:

Tampa Bay Bucs (+2500 at DraftKings, BetMGM)

When the season opened, the Bucs were the second favorite on the Super Bowl board at +900, behind only Buffalo. The unretirement of QB Tom Brady triggered a rush of money on Tampa Bay.

After opening 2-0 with dominant defensive performances over Dallas (19-3) and New Orleans (20-10), the Bucs’ odds shortened even more to +750, making them the clearcut choice out of the NFC to reach the Super Bowl.

Now, at 3-5 (2-6 ATS), they aren’t even clearcut choices to make the playoffs (-164 at BetMGM).

Analysts have come down hard on Brady, saying he appears to be moving in slow motion in the pocket and “not on the same page” with WR Mike Evans many times. Although Brady ranks second in passing yards, that’s very much a product of having 15 more throws than anyone else.

Then, there’s the running game — on both ends.

The defense, which allowed 231 yards on the ground to Baltimore last week, was third-best in the league in yards allowed last season. Now the Bucs are the ninth worst.

On offense, the team is averaging a league-low 20.4 rushes a game and its norm of 3.0 a carry is the worst in the league since 2000.

Perhaps coming off an extended break after playing last Thursday will spur a turnaround.

Also read: NFL Week 9 odds

New York Giants (+8000 at DraftKings)

What happened to all the love for the Giants, who were darlings of the NFL at 6-1 last week with its odds shortening from an opening +15000 to +4100?

A 27-13 loss in Seattle has the number soaring up almost double entering their bye week.

When NYG comes back, it will have back-to-back games against Houston and Detroit, at which point the odds might shorten back near +4100 again since they could well stand at 8-1 at that juncture.

However, they’ll face a brutal scheduling gantlet down the home stretch.

Still remaining is a game at Dallas (6-2), two against Philly (7-0), and also a road game versus Minnesota (6-1). Not to mention two games against an improving Washington team and its potent running game. And since the Giants are particularly weak at stopping the ground game, trouble lurks there.

Denver Broncos (+15000 at DraftKings)

Bettors holding preseason Super Bowl futures tickets from when the Broncos (3-5 SU/ATS) were at +1800 have to be feeling sick. Even more than normal.

After Tuesday’s trade of sack specialist Bradley Chubb to Miami, they’re probably feeling worse.

Even after Sunday’s 21-17 victory over Jacksonville, the team’s odds lengthened from +12500 to +13000, which makes sense for a team that’s tied for last in the league with 11 TDs.

Then came news of the Chubb deal, and zoom, up to +15000.

Chicago Bears (+85000 at FanDuel)

A week ago, the Bears had one of the most impressive victories of the season, ripping the Patriots in New England 33-14 in a Thursday prime-time game as an 8.5-point underdog.

Second-year QB Justin Fields led a ferocious running game (243 yards) with 82 yards and averaged 8.5 yards on his 21 passes, his second-best norm of the season.

Then, team management started to take the air out of their balloon as the trade deadline approached.

First, the Bears sent pass-rush specialist and co-captain Robert Quinn to Philadelphia for a fourth-round draft choice next year.

Soon after the Bears’ 49-29 loss in Dallas on Sunday that dropped them to 3-5 (3-4-1 ATS), Chicago shipped another co-captain and the leading tackler in the league, LB Roquan Smith, to Baltimore on Monday.

When news of that latest trade hit the public, Chicago’s odds jumped to +75000. Soon afterward, that number lengthened to +85000. Now the Bears are the league’s third-biggest long shot.

Also before the deadline, the Bears did add talent to the offense, acquiring Pittsburgh WR Chase Claypool. But he doesn’t play defense.

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