The NFL Playoffs are here, so it is time to start discussing the best player prop and touchdown scorer bets for each game. Today, we give you the best prop bets for Sunday’s AFC Wild Card matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills.
Buffalo won the AFC East for the third-straight season, and according to our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook, they have the second-shortest odds to win the AFC and the Super Bowl, just behind the Kansas City Chiefs in both categories. On the other side, Miami sprinted out to an 8-3 record, but injuries to key players, including Tua Tagovailoa, who will be out for the Wild Card round, have derailed the Dolphins’ season, and they had to win their final game to clinch a spot in the postseason.
With Tagovailoa out, the Bills are a massive 13-point favorite at most sportsbooks. If that scares you, there are hundreds of prop bets for Dolphins vs. Bills that you can take advantage of, and we are here to give you our favorite plays.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Wild Card Odds
Here are current odds on this Wild Card clash from top sports betting apps.
NFL · Sun (1/15) @ 1:02pm ET
|Bills Stadium, Orchard Park, New York|
Buffalo has won seven straight entering the playoffs and have dominated the Dolphins in Buffalo, winning six straight when Miami comes to town. While the Dolphins have lost eight of their last nine games, they are 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in their previous six against AFC teams and 6-1 ATS in their last seven against the AFC East.
This season, the Dolphins and Bills split the series, with Miami’s win dating back to September when it looked like the Mike McDaniel-led Dolphins were going to give the Super Bowl-favorite Bills a run for their money in the AFC East.
That has not worked out, but Miami got off to such a hot start that they just needed to not completely fall apart down the stretch to secure their first postseason berth since 2017 and only their eighth postseason game this century.
Best Props, Anytime TD Scorer Bets For Dolphins vs. Bills NFL Playoff Game
Josh Allen Over 253.5 Passing Yards (-115, BetMGM)
In his two games against the Dolphins this season, Allen has put up a combined 704 yards passing with a 63% completion percentage. Allen also totaled six touchdowns in those two games, with no turnovers. His numbers are up across the board from last season, and he is averaging 267.7 yards per game, which would put us Over this number.
Now, with the Dolphins dealing with some injuries, there is the potential for this game to get ugly quickly and for the Bills to take their foot off the gas, but Buffalo is in the top 10 in all passing stats. Allen has hit this number in both games against the Dolphins this season, and Miami’s defense allows 6.4 yards per pass and 234.8 passing yards per game.
The Bills also run the ball only 26.9 times per game, so look for Buffalo to come out firing and pass the ball all over this weak secondary. Allen has hit this number eight times this year, and unless they get two kickoff returns for touchdowns again, expect the Bills to put up a considerable number, and it all starts with their star quarterback.
Gabe Davis Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)
If we are on Allen’s passing yards over, then it would probably be wise to take a peek at his receivers’ yardage props. Typically, we would immediately go to Stefon Diggs’ player props, but there is a lot of value in Gabe Davis’ receiving yards total.
On the year, Davis is averaging 55.7 receiving yards per game, which would put us well over this number. He has also gone over this number in six of his 15 games played, and in those six games, he is averaging 91.6 yards. Again, the Bills will look to exploit Miami’s 27th-ranked passing defense, including taking deep shots, where Davis thrives.
Davis leads Buffalo in yards per reception (17.4), and he has the second-most targets on the team with 93, well behind Diggs, who is the most targeted Bill with 154. In his two games against Miami, Davis has gone over this number once, but in both games, he received six targets, which is his season average.
The best part about taking the over on a deep threat’s receiving yards prop is that it only takes one or two plays to cash the ticket. Based on his utilization throughout the season, Davis should be in a prime position to go Over this number again against this weak secondary.
How They’re Moving: NFL Playoff Odds for Wild Card Weekend
Tyreek Hill Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+195, FanDuel)
Hill has put out a career year in his first season with the Dolphins, which is shocking considering he went from Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City to a merry-go-round of mediocre quarterback play all season. On the year, Hill has put up career-highs in targets (170), receptions (119), and yards (1710).
While his yards per reception is down to 14.4, Hill is still producing and doing so at a high level. He has only eight total touchdowns on the season (one on the ground), but with Tagovailoa out and no more room for error, the Dolphins need to pull out all the stops, and that includes using Hill’s world-class athleticism.
It took a while for Hill to start finding the end zone with Miami, but since November, he has six of his eight touchdowns. In the games he caught a touchdown, he is averaging 9.1 targets per game, and against the Bills, he is averaging 8.8 targets per game with one touchdown scored.
Buffalo’s pass defense is among the best in the NFL, but they are banged up, and they will have to deal with blazing speed from both Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Expect the Dolphins to run the offense behind those two and grab the value with Hill’s anytime touchdown scorer prop.