Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins’ offense produced one of the most impressive performances across the league in Week 1, upsetting the Chargers on the road, 36-34. Miami gained over 8 yards per play in L.A. as Tagovailoa completed 28-of-45 passes for 466 yards.
The Patriots are coming off a Week 1 loss to the Eagles and are looking to avoid an 0-2 start in back-to-back home games.
Let’s take a look at the Dolphins vs. Patriots odds, props, and a prediction.
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Dolphins vs. Patriots Spread, Moneyline, Total
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- Spread: Dolphins , Patriots
- Moneyline: Dolphins , Patriots
- Over/Under: total points
Dolphins vs. Patriots Betting News
The Patriots are home underdogs in this matchup, with Bill Belichick’s team getting 2 points at most sportsbooks, and at DraftKings.
After turning heads in Week 1, the Dolphins are to win the Super Bowl, while the 0-1 Pats are . To win the AFC, the Fins are , while New England is priced at .
In the AFC East, with the Jets now without Aaron Rodgers for the season and the Bills coming off a disappointing loss to the Rodgers-loss Jets, the Dolphins are co-favorites along with the Bills to win the division. The Jets and Patriots are both considered long shots after Week 1.
The Dolphins’ season win total is now set at , while the Patriots’ is .
In 2022, Miami went 10-8 (ATS) and New England was 7-9-1 (ATS). In their two meetings last year, these teams split, with Miami winning 20-7 in Week 1 and New England winning 23-21 in Week 17. Last year, the Dolphins were led by Tagovailoa (23-of-33 passing for 270 yards, 1 TD) in the opener, but struggled without him in the Week 17 rematch at Gillette Stadium. Skylar Thompson and Teddy Bridgewater split the reps that day, going a combined 24-for-40 for 265 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 interceptions.
In 2022, the Over/Under in Dolphins games was 9-9, while the O/U in Patriots games was 8-9. In Week 1 of the 2023 season, the Over cashed in both Dolphins-Chargers and Patriots-Eagles.
Dolphins vs. Patriots Props
Here are select prop markets for the game from FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook. Live props are available in the above game tiles.
Anytime Touchdown Scorer (FanDuel)
- Player markets not yet available
Player Passing Yards (FanDuel)
- Player markets not yet available
Rushing Yards (DraftKings)
- Player markets not yet available
1st Half (DraftKings)
- Dolphins: -0.5 (-105), Moneyline (-125)
- Patriots: +0.5 (-115), Moneyline (+105)
Dolphins vs. Patriots Analysis and Prediction
The biggest question of this matchup is how will New England handle the challenge of containing Tagovailoa and wide receiver Tyreek Hill.
The Dolphins started last season on a tear, winning eight of their first 11 games. But after the 8-3 start, Miami lost five of six to finish 9-8, good enough for the No. 7 seed in the AFC for the playoffs. Tagovailoa missed four regular-season games (Weeks 5, 6, 17, 18) as well as his team’s Wild Card loss to Buffalo in the playoffs, and his team went 1-4 without him.
On Sunday against the Chargers, Tagovailoa and the 2023 Dolphins looked like the team that started 8-3 a year ago. Facing a solid LAC D, the Dolphins racked up 30 first downs and nearly 500 yards through the air despite rushing for just 70 yards on 20 carries. Tagovailoa and Hill (11 catches, 215 yards, 2 TDs) were unstoppable, and the Dolphins’ O-line did not give up a sack on 45 pass attempts.
If the Dolphins can continue to play at anywhere near that level offensively, they can contend in the AFC. Defensively, however, they’ll have to improve on their Week 1 performance. They allowed the Chargers to run the ball 40 times for 234 yards and pick up another 228 yards on 33 passing attempts en route to 30 first downs and 34 points.
The Patriots fell behind Philadelphia 16-0 in the first quarter last Sunday but cut the lead to 16-14 at halftime before losing 25-20. The Pats’ D played well from start to finish, allowing just one touchdown and four field goals (including three from 48 yards or longer). Ultimately, though, they were not able to overcome the Eagles’ strong start, which included a 70-yard pick-six by Darius Slay. Mac Jones and the Patriots had success moving the ball (24 first downs), but went just 5-for-15 on third down.
If Jones can replicate his Week 1 performance, when he completed 35-of-54 passes for 316 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception, and New England can get more from its ground game, they should be able to at least keep within striking distance of the Dolphins at home.
New England was solid on defense last year (20.4 points per game allowed), but finished 8-9 as Mac Jones and the offense struggled. Expect Belichick and the Pats to do a better job containing Tagovailoa than the Chargers, but it’s hard to see the New England offense scoring enough to avoid going 0-2.
PICK: Dolphins
PICK: Under
How to Watch Dolphins vs. Patriots
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 17, 2023
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium — Foxborough, MA
- Network: NBC
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