Elvis Presley once sang: “We’re caught in a trap, I can’t walk out.”
This is the time of year in college football that this rings true. It’s when we as bettors get trapped by the oddsmakers.
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We have been watching all season and know that cream rises to the top. But, the oddsmakers know this too. Therefore, they inflate the lines this week, hoping we’ll take the bait.
Many of these matchups, for example, Georgia -28.5, Baylor -14.5, Ohio State -9, Clemson -27.5, LSU -17, should win their games and are going to their conference championships in a week. However, these are some big numbers as all of these teams are facing conference rivals that know each other well.
I am not saying these teams are not going to cover, I am saying to be careful as they don’t need to cover.
Thursday
Mississippi +3 at Mississippi State: To be quite honest, the wrong team is favored here. I feel Mississippi should be a favorite of three points.
Yes, both teams are 2-5 in conference play and the Rebels are 0-4 SU on the road in 2019, however, they are 3-1 ATS as a guest and an overall, 7-4 ATS on the campaign. Ole Miss comes into this contest well-rested, having not played since a November 16th cover vs. LSU, the team’s third consecutive cover and their sixth in the last seven outings.
The matchup heavily favors Mississippi with the nation’s seventh-ranked rushing attack consisting of four solid ballcarriers. There is no home field advantage as the road team has covered the last four meetings. Mississippi is 6-1 ATS the last seven in the conference. Mississippi State is 1-5 ATS the last six in the conference. MISSISSIPPI
Friday
Texas Tech +10 at Texas: The road team has covered the last five meetings, while the last four matchups have been decided by seven, four, eight, and three points. Not much has changed to warrant a double-digit point spread.
Both teams can pass the ball well and neither can stop the pass. Very simply, this is too high of a spread, especially to give a Red Raiders squad that treats this contest each year like it is a Bowl game.
The Longhorns are 1-4 ATS the last five against conference foes, 4-9-1 ATS the last 14 in the month of November, and 1-4 ATS the last five vs. teams with a losing record. TEXAS TECH
Saturday
Alabama -3.5 at Auburn: With all respect to Tua Tagavailoa, who is an amazing athlete, this is an Alabama Crimson Tide football team. Did it really surprise anyone that Mac Jones is succeeding? He has a 71.4 percent completion rate, 841 yards passing, and 7 TDs with just 1 INT. Hands down, he’s the best quarterback on the field here.
Bo Nix has had problems when facing the SEC’s top teams (Auburn put up just 13 points vs. Florida, 20 vs. LSU, and 14 vs. Georgia, all SU losses).
Whether ‘Bama gets to the College Football Playoff is uncertain. One thing for sure, a loss puts them out. Nick Saban will not allow this to happen. ALABAMA
UAB -3 at North Texas: There is no room in sports betting for playing teams you like. But, I have released UAB several times this season and they haven’t let us down yet.
They are in the running for the C-USA West crown (tied at 5-2 with Louisiana Tech and Southern Mississippi). I don’t see how this North Texas team that won’t be able to score can compete here. The Blazers are 4-0 ATS the last four meetings in this series while North Texas is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 C-USA contests, UAB
Last week: 4-0
Season: 25-23-2