Colts’ Coach Situation Shouldn’t Affect Line, But Josh Allen’s Elbow Strains Bettors in NFL Week 10

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Neophyte Jeff Saturday is in as Colts head coach, which early bettors were convinced was worth almost a touchdown against the untrustworthy Raiders.

A nation of bettors gasped when Bills quarterback Josh Allen shook out his throwing elbow after a pass against the Jets last week. He may sit out what was already going to be a tough test at home against the Vikings on Sunday. Down comes the number on the Bills.

The Allen situation, veteran DraftKings oddsmaker Johnny Avello said, makes sense. The Saturday scenario, no. Coaches just don’t matter that much, he contends.

Just 10% of the expected handle on NFL games had arrived, as usual, by Thursday, but Avello is interested to see how the public pokes and prods the lines in both the Bills and Colts games leading up to Sunday.

Gaming Today spoke with Avello about the impact key additions and subtractions have on NFL odds.

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Colts Were Disappointments Before Saturday and Coaches Don’t Matter Anyway

AVELLO: [The Colts] just have all kinds of issues. They haven’t scored a lot of points. They’re near-to-bottom as far as turnovers. The defense isn’t bad. Mentally, maybe they’re a little distorted because they were expecting so much more this year. So here comes a guy like Jeff Saturday, who really has very limited coaching experience. I think even his experience in high school wasn’t even good. He’s probably got a losing record there.

I think what they’ll do is they’ll try to go with a similar game plan that they’ve been using all year long. Maybe he’ll tweak a few things here and there because he was a great football player on his own.

I don’t think the team really needs a coach. Any assistant, any guy that’s there on the team now could probably coach the team.

But maybe he adds a little added incentive.

After Bettors Exploded the Line to -6.5, Sanity is Returning

AVELLO: We look at the power ratings of both teams, and that’s how we came up with a line. The line got bet up a little bit. We opened it up -3.5 [Raiders]. It’s been bet up to five. Right now, bettors like the Raiders a little in this spot, and I don’t know if that’s so much against the Colts or just that the Raiders are a much better team than they’ve shown so far.

Saturday-Colts-odds

Maybe they’re going to put it together. I don’t know the bettors’ reason for betting the Raiders in this one. When it comes right down to it, the Raiders shouldn’t be laying too many points.

Josh Allen’s Right Elbow a Much More Impactful Situation

AVELLO: Going back to what I said previously, a coach is not worth that much. What is a coach actually worth? You take [Nick Saban], I remember one game, he was out last year. They said he was out, and it meant about a 2.5-point difference in the line. Then it was announced he was going to be there, and it came all the way back to the original number.

So a coach like that is worth a lot more. And you’re dealing with kids here, too. A lot younger personnel makes a difference.

With a player, if you’re the quarterback, the best player, possibly, in the league, it makes a big difference. Now, the reason we’re at -3.5 on the [Bills] game is because we’re still not sure if he’s in or out.

If he’s out, this number could even drop more.

Remember, we opened this game nine. And that was before both teams even played last week. And then when the injury came back out, then we were at -7.5 with a possible injury that he may not play, then -6.5, then -5.5, and this thing just keeps on coming down. So right now I would say that he’s probably more out than he is in, and that’s reflective of what the bettors have been doing with it.

What Players’ Health Most Impacts a Betting Line?

AVELLO: A lot of that has to do with who the backup is if we’re looking at a quarterback.

Aaron Rogers was probably one of the top guys. He was probably worth anywhere from eight to 10 points. He’s not right now.

Patrick Mahomes is one of those guys, too. If when you go to the second-string guy, and he’s just adequate and maybe just follows the game plan and tries to get you through the game with a lot of runs and very few passes, that’s when your top guy is probably worth the most. But if you got a good second string — like the Raiders had Marcus Mariota last year, Derek Carr went out- – it’s not that much of a drop-off from Carr to Mariota.

NFL Week 10: Cowboys-Packers odds and prediction | Chargers vs. 49ers | Commanders vs. Eagles

Has the Public Jumped on Seahawks Futures After Unexpectedly Good Start?

AVELLO: They do like ’em. They’ve been betting ’em a little bit. They still feel that you’ve got to go through Philly and some other teams to [win the NFC]. They’ve been betting them some. Right now, they’re sitting at 35-to-1 [to win the Super Bowl]. You could have had ’em in 125 range.

When you look at the rest of the league, teams are struggling. I mean, besides the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles, and the Vikings, you got Jets and Giants playing over their heads, it looks like you got Tampa and Green Bay struggling. Last year’s runner-up Cincinnati is just having a difficult time.

I think what’ll happen during the second half of the year, something’s going to shake out here. Are these teams that are supposed to be contenders, are they in it or are they out of it?

Seeing how if you got [Seattle] at 100-to-1, 125-to-1, you got good value.

Would you bet ’em at 35-to-1 now? Probably not. Because they still have to get by to 49ers, even though the Rams and Cardinals are having horrible years.

Also read: NFL Week 10 betting picks | Tips and strategies | Survivor picks

NFL Week 10 Betting Lines

Here are current odds from top sports betting apps on the NFL Week 10 card.

Bet TypeSpreads
Open
Thu (11/9) @ 8:17pm ET CAR Panthers +135 +2500 +1700 +6000 +2000 0
CHI Bears -161 -10000 -10000 0 0 0
Sun (11/12) @ 9:32am ET IND Colts -125 -667 -1000 -909 -769 -769
NE Patriots +105 +420 +575 +550 +470 +450
Sun (11/12) @ 1:02pm ET GB Packers +140 +650 +3300 +550 +870 0
PIT Steelers -164 -1111 -10000 -909 -2000 0
Sun (11/12) @ 1:02pm ET SF 49ers -154 -10000 -10000 -5000 -10000 -10000
JAX Jaguars +130 +2500 +3300 +1400 +1500 +2500
Sun (11/12) @ 1:02pm ET HOU Texans +310 -2000 -455 0 -909 -2000
CIN Bengals -400 +900 +325 +3000 +540 +900
Sun (11/12) @ 1:02pm ET CLE Browns +185 -769 -769 -1250 +132 0
BAL Ravens -227 +500 +500 +670 -169 0
Sun (11/12) @ 1:02pm ET NO Saints -145 +3500 +3300 +420 +560 0
MIN Vikings +120 0 -10000 -667 -1000 0
Sun (11/12) @ 1:03pm ET TEN Titans -105 +4000 +3300 +2500 +123 +1700 +3000
TB Buccaneers -115 0 -10000 -10000 -147 -10000 -10000
Sun (11/12) @ 4:05pm ET DET Lions -115 -1111 -3333 -1111 -137 -1667 -1000
LA Chargers -105 +650 +1000 +640 +114 +800 +550
Sun (11/12) @ 4:05pm ET ATL Falcons -135 +1800 +600 +1800 -130 +830 +110
ARI Cardinals +110 -5000 -1111 -5000 +104 -2000 -145
Sun (11/12) @ 4:26pm ET WAS Commanders +210 +850 +300 +550 +210 +320 +1200
SEA Seahawks -278 -1667 -400 -909 -263 -455 -2500
Sun (11/12) @ 4:26pm ET NY Giants +700 +4000 +3300 +6000 +950 +3000 +5000
DAL Cowboys -1111 0 -10000 0 -2000 0 0
Sun (11/12) @ 8:22pm ET NY Jets -125 +1600 +1400 +1200 -112 +1300 +1100
LV Raiders +105 -5000 -10000 -5000 -108 -5000 -5000
Mon (11/13) @ 8:16pm ET DEN Broncos +310 -909 -909 0 -909 -833
BUF Bills -400 +575 +550 +4000 +520 +375
Thu (11/9) @ 8:17pm ET CAR Panthers +3.0 -110 +2.5 +340 +2.5 +310 +3.5 -161 +3.5 -161 +3.5 -149
CHI Bears -3.0 -110 -2.5 -500 -2.5 -455 -3.5 +125 -3.5 +122 -3.5 +120
Sun (11/12) @ 9:32am ET IND Colts -1.5 -110 -3.5 -526 +1.5 -125 -4.0 +135 -3.5 -128 +2.0 -112
NE Patriots +1.5 -110 +3.5 +360 -1.5 -105 +4.0 -169 +3.5 -102 -2.0 -112
Sun (11/12) @ 1:02pm ET GB Packers +3.0 -105 +3.5 +105 +7.5 -10000 +3.5 +195 +3.5 +185 +4.0 -130
PIT Steelers -3.0 -115 -3.5 -135 -7.5 +3300 -3.5 -250 -3.5 -250 -4.0 +105
Sun (11/12) @ 1:02pm ET SF 49ers -3.0 -105 -31.5 +2500 -31.5 +600 -30.5 -714 -31.5 +325 -31.0 -130
JAX Jaguars +3.0 -115 +31.5 -10000 +31.5 -1111 +30.5 +450 +31.5 -500 +31.0 +105
Sun (11/12) @ 1:02pm ET HOU Texans +8.0 -110 -3.5 +100 +9.5 -110 -3.0 +195 +3.5 +148 -3.5 0
CIN Bengals -8.0 -110 +3.5 -130 -9.5 -120 +3.0 -250 -3.5 -196 +3.5 0
Sun (11/12) @ 1:02pm ET CLE Browns +5.5 -110 +6.5 +160 +6.5 +160 +6.5 +150 +7.5 -222 -2.0 0
BAL Ravens -5.5 -110 -6.5 -208 -6.5 -208 -6.5 -189 -7.5 +165 +2.0 0
Sun (11/12) @ 1:02pm ET NO Saints -2.5 -110 +7.5 +1100 +7.5 +1050 +7.5 +160 +7.5 +130 +7.5 +140
MIN Vikings +2.5 -110 -7.5 -2500 -7.5 -5000 -7.5 -200 -7.5 -169 -7.5 -175
Sun (11/12) @ 1:03pm ET TEN Titans +1.5 -115 +13.5 +1000 +13.5 +950 +14.0 +655 +2.5 -106 +13.5 +490 +14.0 -323
TB Buccaneers -1.5 -105 -13.5 -2000 -13.5 -3333 -14.0 -2500 -2.5 -115 -13.5 -833 -14.0 +240
Sun (11/12) @ 4:05pm ET DET Lions -1.5 -105 -5.5 -120 -6.5 -110 -4.5 -115 -2.0 -109 -6.5 -102 -3.0 0
LA Chargers +1.5 -115 +5.5 -110 +6.5 -120 +4.5 -115 +2.0 -112 +6.5 -128 +3.0 0
Sun (11/12) @ 4:05pm ET ATL Falcons -2.5 -110 +4.5 +130 +4.5 +135 +4.5 +125 -2.0 -110 +4.5 +112 +4.5 +130
ARI Cardinals +2.5 -110 -4.5 -167 -4.5 -175 -4.5 -161 +2.0 -110 -4.5 -147 -4.5 -161
Sun (11/12) @ 4:26pm ET WAS Commanders +6.0 -110 +3.5 -149 +3.5 -161 +6.5 +110 +5.5 -106 +3.5 -114 +3.5 0
SEA Seahawks -6.0 -110 -3.5 +120 -3.5 +125 -6.5 -141 -5.5 -115 -3.5 -115 -3.5 0
Sun (11/12) @ 4:26pm ET NY Giants +15.5 -105 +35.5 -200 +38.5 +200 +32.0 +1200 +17.5 -112 +38.5 +360 +39.0 -769
DAL Cowboys -15.5 -115 -35.5 +154 -38.5 -278 -32.0 -5000 -17.5 -109 -38.5 -556 -39.0 +475
Sun (11/12) @ 8:22pm ET NY Jets -1.5 -110 -1.5 -110 -1.5 -105 +4.5 -250 -0.5 -112 +3.5 +142 +3.5 +125
LV Raiders +1.5 -110 +1.5 -120 +1.5 -120 -4.5 +195 +0.5 -109 -3.5 -189 -3.5 -154
Mon (11/13) @ 8:16pm ET DEN Broncos +8.0 -110 -2.5 -130 -2.5 -130 -2.5 -120 -1.5 -108 -3.0 0
BUF Bills -8.0 -110 +2.5 +100 +2.5 +100 +2.5 -110 +1.5 -120 +3.0 0
Thu (11/9) @ 8:17pm ET CAR Panthers o40.5 -110 o29.5 +140 o35.5 -141 o35.5 -135 o35.5 -125
CHI Bears u40.5 -110 u29.5 -179 u35.5 +105 u35.5 +104 u35.5 +100
Sun (11/12) @ 9:32am ET IND Colts o43.5 -110 o16.5 +325 o23.5 +140 o23.5 +118 o23 -145
NE Patriots u43.5 -110 u16.5 -476 u23.5 -185 u23.5 -154 u23 +115
Sun (11/12) @ 1:02pm ET GB Packers o37.5 -105 o47.5 -120 o43.5 -130 o44.5 -130 o44.5 -120
PIT Steelers u37.5 -115 u47.5 -110 u43.5 +100 u44.5 +100 u44.5 -105
Sun (11/12) @ 1:02pm ET SF 49ers u44.5 -110 u43.5 +130 u44.5 -145 u44.5 -139 u37.5 0
JAX Jaguars o44.5 -110 o43.5 -167 o44.5 +110 o44.5 +106 o37.5 0
Sun (11/12) @ 1:02pm ET HOU Texans u46.5 -110 u50.5 +170 u47.5 -130 u50.5 +116 u50.5 0
CIN Bengals o46.5 -110 o50.5 -222 o47.5 +100 o50.5 -152 o50.5 0
Sun (11/12) @ 1:02pm ET CLE Browns u38.5 -110 u60.5 -110 u61.5 -115 u60.5 +100 u61.5 -112
BAL Ravens o38.5 -110 o60.5 -120 o61.5 -115 o60.5 -130 o61.5 -112
Sun (11/12) @ 1:02pm ET NO Saints u40.5 -110 u46.5 -250 u46.5 -3333 u53.5 -120 u49 -125
MIN Vikings o40.5 -110 o46.5 +190 o46.5 +950 o53.5 -108 o49 +100
Sun (11/12) @ 1:03pm ET TEN Titans u39.5 -115 u26.5 -125 u29.5 -175 u39 -110 u39.5 -112 u28.5 -106 u26.5 -769
TB Buccaneers o39.5 -105 o26.5 -105 o29.5 +135 o39 -110 o39.5 -108 o28.5 -122 o26.5 +475
Sun (11/12) @ 4:05pm ET DET Lions o48.5 -110 o78.5 -120 o78.5 -125 o48.0 -110 o78.5 -118 o77.5 -112
LA Chargers u48.5 -110 u78.5 -110 u78.5 -105 u48.0 -110 u78.5 -110 u77.5 -112
Sun (11/12) @ 4:05pm ET ATL Falcons u41.5 -110 u44.5 -110 u48.5 -105 u43.5 -110 u44.5 -106 u44.5 -112
ARI Cardinals o41.5 -110 o44.5 -120 o48.5 -125 o43.5 -110 o44.5 -120 o44.5 -112
Sun (11/12) @ 4:26pm ET WAS Commanders u44.5 -110 u44.5 +124 u40.5 +100 u44.0 -110 u45.5 -204 u45 0
SEA Seahawks o44.5 -110 o44.5 -161 o40.5 -130 o44.0 -110 o45.5 +154 o45 0
Sun (11/12) @ 4:26pm ET NY Giants u39.5 -110 u55.5 -145 u59.5 -400 u38.5 -109 u55.5 +126 u58.5 -112
DAL Cowboys o39.5 -110 o55.5 +114 o59.5 +275 o38.5 -112 o55.5 -164 o58.5 -112
Sun (11/12) @ 8:22pm ET NY Jets u36.5 -110 u34.5 +124 u31.5 -130 u35.5 -110 u34.5 -128 u34.5 -105
LV Raiders o36.5 -110 o34.5 -149 o31.5 +100 o35.5 -110 o34.5 -102 o34.5 -120
Mon (11/13) @ 8:16pm ET DEN Broncos u45.5 -110 u40.5 -149 u39.5 +115 u40.5 -130 u40.5 0
BUF Bills o45.5 -110 o40.5 +120 o39.5 -149 o40.5 +100 o40.5 0
About the Author
Brant James

Brant James

Senior Writer
Brant James is a senior writer at Gaming Today. An alum of the Tampa Bay Times, ESPN.com, espnW, SI.com and USA Today, he's covered motorsports and the NHL as beats, once made a tail-hook landing on an aircraft carrier with Dale Earnhardt Jr., and rode to the top of Mt. Washington with Travis Pastrana. John Tortorella yelled at him numerous times. In covering the sports betting industry, he's looking for what and who are next and why.

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