Colts’ Coach Situation Shouldn’t Affect Line, But Josh Allen’s Elbow Strains Bettors in NFL Week 10

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Neophyte Jeff Saturday is in as Colts head coach, which early bettors were convinced was worth almost a touchdown against the untrustworthy Raiders.

A nation of bettors gasped when Bills quarterback Josh Allen shook out his throwing elbow after a pass against the Jets last week. He may sit out what was already going to be a tough test at home against the Vikings on Sunday. Down comes the number on the Bills.

The Allen situation, veteran DraftKings oddsmaker Johnny Avello said, makes sense. The Saturday scenario, no. Coaches just don’t matter that much, he contends.

Just 10% of the expected handle on NFL games had arrived, as usual, by Thursday, but Avello is interested to see how the public pokes and prods the lines in both the Bills and Colts games leading up to Sunday.

Gaming Today spoke with Avello about the impact key additions and subtractions have on NFL odds.

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Colts Were Disappointments Before Saturday and Coaches Don’t Matter Anyway

AVELLO: [The Colts] just have all kinds of issues. They haven’t scored a lot of points. They’re near-to-bottom as far as turnovers. The defense isn’t bad. Mentally, maybe they’re a little distorted because they were expecting so much more this year. So here comes a guy like Jeff Saturday, who really has very limited coaching experience. I think even his experience in high school wasn’t even good. He’s probably got a losing record there.

I think what they’ll do is they’ll try to go with a similar game plan that they’ve been using all year long. Maybe he’ll tweak a few things here and there because he was a great football player on his own.

I don’t think the team really needs a coach. Any assistant, any guy that’s there on the team now could probably coach the team.

But maybe he adds a little added incentive.

After Bettors Exploded the Line to -6.5, Sanity is Returning

AVELLO: We look at the power ratings of both teams, and that’s how we came up with a line. The line got bet up a little bit. We opened it up -3.5 [Raiders]. It’s been bet up to five. Right now, bettors like the Raiders a little in this spot, and I don’t know if that’s so much against the Colts or just that the Raiders are a much better team than they’ve shown so far.

Saturday-Colts-odds

Maybe they’re going to put it together. I don’t know the bettors’ reason for betting the Raiders in this one. When it comes right down to it, the Raiders shouldn’t be laying too many points.

Josh Allen’s Right Elbow a Much More Impactful Situation

AVELLO: Going back to what I said previously, a coach is not worth that much. What is a coach actually worth? You take [Nick Saban], I remember one game, he was out last year. They said he was out, and it meant about a 2.5-point difference in the line. Then it was announced he was going to be there, and it came all the way back to the original number.

So a coach like that is worth a lot more. And you’re dealing with kids here, too. A lot younger personnel makes a difference.

With a player, if you’re the quarterback, the best player, possibly, in the league, it makes a big difference. Now, the reason we’re at -3.5 on the [Bills] game is because we’re still not sure if he’s in or out.

If he’s out, this number could even drop more.

Remember, we opened this game nine. And that was before both teams even played last week. And then when the injury came back out, then we were at -7.5 with a possible injury that he may not play, then -6.5, then -5.5, and this thing just keeps on coming down. So right now I would say that he’s probably more out than he is in, and that’s reflective of what the bettors have been doing with it.

What Players’ Health Most Impacts a Betting Line?

AVELLO: A lot of that has to do with who the backup is if we’re looking at a quarterback.

Aaron Rogers was probably one of the top guys. He was probably worth anywhere from eight to 10 points. He’s not right now.

Patrick Mahomes is one of those guys, too. If when you go to the second-string guy, and he’s just adequate and maybe just follows the game plan and tries to get you through the game with a lot of runs and very few passes, that’s when your top guy is probably worth the most. But if you got a good second string — like the Raiders had Marcus Mariota last year, Derek Carr went out- – it’s not that much of a drop-off from Carr to Mariota.

NFL Week 10: Cowboys-Packers odds and prediction | Chargers vs. 49ers | Commanders vs. Eagles

Has the Public Jumped on Seahawks Futures After Unexpectedly Good Start?

AVELLO: They do like ’em. They’ve been betting ’em a little bit. They still feel that you’ve got to go through Philly and some other teams to [win the NFC]. They’ve been betting them some. Right now, they’re sitting at 35-to-1 [to win the Super Bowl]. You could have had ’em in 125 range.

When you look at the rest of the league, teams are struggling. I mean, besides the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles, and the Vikings, you got Jets and Giants playing over their heads, it looks like you got Tampa and Green Bay struggling. Last year’s runner-up Cincinnati is just having a difficult time.

I think what’ll happen during the second half of the year, something’s going to shake out here. Are these teams that are supposed to be contenders, are they in it or are they out of it?

Seeing how if you got [Seattle] at 100-to-1, 125-to-1, you got good value.

Would you bet ’em at 35-to-1 now? Probably not. Because they still have to get by to 49ers, even though the Rams and Cardinals are having horrible years.

Also read: NFL Week 10 betting picks | Tips and strategies | Survivor picks

NFL Week 10 Betting Lines

Here are current odds from top sports betting apps on the NFL Week 10 card.

Bet TypeSpreads
Open
Thu (11/10) @ 8:15pm ET ATL Falcons -141 +1800 +1400 +750 +1500 +1800
CAR Panthers +115 -10000 -10000 -1250 -10000 -5000
Sun (11/13) @ 9:30am ET SEA Seahawks +100 +520 +550 +475 +130 +540 +1000
TB Buccaneers -120 -769 -1000 -714 -149 -909 -1667
Sun (11/13) @ 1:00pm ET HOU Texans +240 +2500 +2200 +5000 +190 +560 +4500
NY Giants -303 0 -10000 0 -222 -1000 0
Sun (11/13) @ 1:01pm ET NO Saints -149 +1000 +825 +1000 +1060 +5000
PIT Steelers +125 -2000 -2000 -2000 -3333 0
Sun (11/13) @ 1:02pm ET JAX Jaguars +350 +2500 +1500 +700 +700 +2800
KC Chiefs -455 0 -2500 -1250 -1429 -10000
Sun (11/13) @ 1:02pm ET CLE Browns +165 +1800 +3300 +1000 +2500 +2500
MIA Dolphins -200 -10000 -10000 -2000 0 -10000
Sun (11/13) @ 1:02pm ET DET Lions +115 -323 -2000 -5000 -135 -5000
CHI Bears -141 +255 +700 +1400 +106 +1500
Sun (11/13) @ 1:02pm ET MIN Vikings +260 +240 +200 +270 +196 0
BUF Bills -345 -303 -278 -345 -263 0
Sun (11/13) @ 1:02pm ET DEN Broncos +125 +2500 +3300 +850 +1000 0
TEN Titans -149 0 -10000 -1667 -3333 0
Sun (11/13) @ 4:05pm ET IND Colts +200 -196 -154 -179 +182 -238 -227
LV Raiders -250 +160 +115 +150 -208 +182 +185
Sun (11/13) @ 4:24pm ET ARI Cardinals +155 -5000 -714 -2500 +153 -5000 -769
LA Rams -189 +1300 +475 +1100 -179 +1400 +500
Sun (11/13) @ 4:24pm ET DAL Cowboys -227 -10000 -1667 -5000 -196 -5000 -2500
GB Packers +180 +1600 +775 +1600 +170 +1400 +1300
Sun (11/13) @ 8:20pm ET LA Chargers +220 +275 +260 +278 +275 +285 +280
SF 49ers -278 -333 -345 -357 -333 -357 -345
Mon (11/14) @ 8:15pm ET WAS Commanders +375 -625 -1250 -1000 -909 0
PHI Eagles -500 +440 +600 +625 +540 0
Thu (11/10) @ 8:15pm ET ATL Falcons -2.5 -110 +12.5 -141 +11.5 -110 +10.0 -1250 +12.5 -104 +9.5 0
CAR Panthers +2.5 -110 -12.5 +110 -11.5 -115 -10.0 +700 -12.5 -125 -9.5 0
Sun (11/13) @ 9:30am ET SEA Seahawks +1.5 -110 +11.5 +145 +5.5 -714 +12.5 -208 +2.5 -105 +11.5 +162 +12.0 +105
TB Buccaneers -1.5 -110 -11.5 -179 -5.5 +425 -12.5 +170 -2.5 -118 -11.5 -213 -12.0 -120
Sun (11/13) @ 1:00pm ET HOU Texans +6.5 -110 +11.5 -270 +8.5 -2500 +8.0 +475 +5.0 -112 +8.5 -667 +11.0 -105
NY Giants -6.5 -110 -11.5 +215 -8.5 +900 -8.0 -714 -5.0 -109 -8.5 +410 -11.0 -110
Sun (11/13) @ 1:01pm ET NO Saints -3.0 -105 +9.5 +300 +9.5 +270 +9.5 +250 +9.5 +320 +10.0 -303
PIT Steelers +3.0 -115 -9.5 -400 -9.5 -370 -9.5 -323 -9.5 -476 -10.0 +240
Sun (11/13) @ 1:02pm ET JAX Jaguars +10.0 -110 +9.5 +275 +9.5 +155 +10.0 +210 +10.5 -213 +10.0 0
KC Chiefs -10.0 -110 -9.5 -357 -9.5 -208 -10.0 -263 -10.5 +162 -10.0 0
Sun (11/13) @ 1:02pm ET CLE Browns +4.0 -110 +21.5 +200 +21.5 +115 +22.0 +290 +21.5 +260 +22.0 +135
MIA Dolphins -4.0 -110 -21.5 -250 -21.5 -149 -22.0 -385 -21.5 -370 -22.0 -161
Sun (11/13) @ 1:02pm ET DET Lions +2.5 -110 +1.5 +135 +1.5 +100 +5.5 +105 +1.5 -108 +5.5 +110
CHI Bears -2.5 -110 -1.5 -164 -1.5 -130 -5.5 -135 -1.5 -120 -5.5 -130
Sun (11/13) @ 1:02pm ET MIN Vikings +7.5 -110 +0.5 +100 +6.5 +110 +12.5 +105 +4.5 -588 +6.5 -108
BUF Bills -7.5 -110 -0.5 -130 -6.5 -145 -12.5 -135 -4.5 +365 -6.5 -108
Sun (11/13) @ 1:02pm ET DEN Broncos +3.0 -115 +3.5 +195 +3.5 +180 +3.5 +195 +3.5 +220 +4.0 +110
TEN Titans -3.0 -105 -3.5 -238 -3.5 -250 -3.5 -238 -3.5 -303 -4.0 -125
Sun (11/13) @ 4:05pm ET IND Colts +5.5 -110 -1.5 +130 -1.5 +125 -2.5 +105 +4.5 -110 -1.5 +120 +0.5 +110
LV Raiders -5.5 -110 +1.5 -161 +1.5 -161 +2.5 -135 -4.5 -110 +1.5 -156 -0.5 -130
Sun (11/13) @ 4:24pm ET ARI Cardinals +3.5 -110 -10.5 +120 -6.5 -200 -9.5 -135 +3.5 -118 -10.5 +106 -7.0 +135
LA Rams -3.5 -110 +10.5 -149 +6.5 +150 +9.5 +105 -3.5 -103 +10.5 -139 +7.0 -161
Sun (11/13) @ 4:24pm ET DAL Cowboys -4.5 -110 -13.5 -135 -11.5 -110 -13.5 -141 -3.5 -114 -14.5 +106 -11.5 -108
GB Packers +4.5 -110 +13.5 +105 +11.5 -120 +13.5 +110 +3.5 -108 +14.5 -139 +11.5 -108
Sun (11/13) @ 8:20pm ET LA Chargers +6.5 -110 +7.5 -110 +7.5 -110 +7.5 -110 +7.5 -109 +7.5 -110 +7.5 -108
SF 49ers -6.5 -110 -7.5 -110 -7.5 -110 -7.5 -110 -7.5 -112 -7.5 -110 -7.5 -108
Mon (11/14) @ 8:15pm ET WAS Commanders +10.5 -110 -1.5 -120 -1.5 -141 -2.5 +110 -1.5 -135 -2.0 -108
PHI Eagles -10.5 -110 +1.5 -110 +1.5 +105 +2.5 -141 +1.5 +104 +2.0 -108
Thu (11/10) @ 8:15pm ET ATL Falcons o42.5 -110 o37.5 -149 o37.5 -189 o37.5 -213 o36.5 0
CAR Panthers u42.5 -110 u37.5 +120 u37.5 +155 u37.5 +162 u36.5 0
Sun (11/13) @ 9:30am ET SEA Seahawks o44.5 -110 o36.5 -135 o39.5 +210 o45 -110 o45.0 -109 o36.5 -118 o38.5 +350
TB Buccaneers u44.5 -110 u36.5 +105 u39.5 -303 u45 -110 u45.0 -112 u36.5 -110 u38.5 -455
Sun (11/13) @ 1:00pm ET HOU Texans o38.5 -110 o33.5 -125 o33.5 -105 o40.5 -110 o41.5 -112 o40.5 -118 o33.5 -110
NY Giants u38.5 -110 u33.5 -105 u33.5 -125 u40.5 -110 u41.5 -109 u40.5 -110 u33.5 -105
Sun (11/13) @ 1:01pm ET NO Saints o41.5 -110 o36.5 -149 o36.5 -120 o36.5 -125 o31.5 +200
PIT Steelers u41.5 -110 u36.5 +120 u36.5 -110 u36.5 -104 u31.5 -250
Sun (11/13) @ 1:02pm ET JAX Jaguars o49.5 -110 o44.5 +105 o47.5 +115 o44.5 +120 o44.5 +100
KC Chiefs u49.5 -110 u44.5 -135 u47.5 -149 u44.5 -154 u44.5 -115
Sun (11/13) @ 1:02pm ET CLE Browns o48.5 -110 o57.5 -115 o61.5 -110 o56.5 -122 o63 +125
MIA Dolphins u48.5 -110 u57.5 -115 u61.5 -120 u56.5 -106 u63 -145
Sun (11/13) @ 1:02pm ET DET Lions u48.5 -110 u61.5 -125 u61.5 -161 u61.5 -122 u60 -108
CHI Bears o48.5 -110 o61.5 -105 o61.5 +125 o61.5 -104 o60 -108
Sun (11/13) @ 1:02pm ET MIN Vikings u48 -110 u50.5 +110 u50.5 +140 u54.5 -130 u50.5 +115
BUF Bills o48 -110 o50.5 -141 o50.5 -175 o54.5 +100 o50.5 -135
Sun (11/13) @ 1:02pm ET DEN Broncos o39 -110 o27.5 -110 o28.5 +105 o32.5 -115 o27 -125
TEN Titans u39 -110 u27.5 -120 u28.5 -141 u32.5 -114 u27 +110
Sun (11/13) @ 4:05pm ET IND Colts o42 -110 o45.5 -110 o45.5 +105 o41.0 -108 o45.5 -106 o45 -115
LV Raiders u42 -110 u45.5 -120 u45.5 -130 u41.0 -114 u45.5 -120 u45 +100
Sun (11/13) @ 4:24pm ET ARI Cardinals o43.5 -110 o36.5 -135 o33.5 -120 o38.0 -108 o36.5 -114 o33 -115
LA Rams u43.5 -110 u36.5 +105 u33.5 -110 u38.0 -114 u36.5 -114 u33 +100
Sun (11/13) @ 4:24pm ET DAL Cowboys o43.5 -110 o51.5 -135 o55.5 -115 o44.5 -110 o52.5 +112 o54.5 -108
GB Packers u43.5 -110 u51.5 +105 u55.5 -105 u44.5 -110 u52.5 -147 u54.5 -108
Sun (11/13) @ 8:20pm ET LA Chargers o46.5 -110 o45.5 -110 o45.5 -110 o45.5 -110 o45.5 -112 o45.5 -110 o45.5 -108
SF 49ers u46.5 -110 u45.5 -110 u45.5 -110 u45.5 -110 u45.5 -109 u45.5 -110 u45.5 -108
Mon (11/14) @ 8:15pm ET WAS Commanders u44.5 -110 u54.5 -110 u53.5 +100 u54.5 -128 u53.5 -108
PHI Eagles o44.5 -110 o54.5 -120 o53.5 -130 o54.5 -102 o53.5 -108
About the Author
Brant James

Brant James

Brant James is the lead writer for Catena Media Sharp Sites including Gaming Today. He has covered the American sports betting industry in the United States since before professional sports teams even knew what an official gaming partnership entailed.

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