Colts’ Coach Situation Shouldn’t Affect Line, But Josh Allen’s Elbow Strains Bettors in NFL Week 10

Neophyte Jeff Saturday is in as Colts head coach, which early bettors were convinced was worth almost a touchdown against the untrustworthy Raiders.

A nation of bettors gasped when Bills quarterback Josh Allen shook out his throwing elbow after a pass against the Jets last week. He may sit out what was already going to be a tough test at home against the Vikings on Sunday. Down comes the number on the Bills.

The Allen situation, veteran DraftKings oddsmaker Johnny Avello said, makes sense. The Saturday scenario, no. Coaches just don’t matter that much, he contends.

Just 10% of the expected handle on NFL games had arrived, as usual, by Thursday, but Avello is interested to see how the public pokes and prods the lines in both the Bills and Colts games leading up to Sunday.

Gaming Today spoke with Avello about the impact key additions and subtractions have on NFL odds.

Colts Were Disappointments Before Saturday and Coaches Don’t Matter Anyway

AVELLO: [The Colts] just have all kinds of issues. They haven’t scored a lot of points. They’re near-to-bottom as far as turnovers. The defense isn’t bad. Mentally, maybe they’re a little distorted because they were expecting so much more this year. So here comes a guy like Jeff Saturday, who really has very limited coaching experience. I think even his experience in high school wasn’t even good. He’s probably got a losing record there.

I think what they’ll do is they’ll try to go with a similar game plan that they’ve been using all year long. Maybe he’ll tweak a few things here and there because he was a great football player on his own.

I don’t think the team really needs a coach. Any assistant, any guy that’s there on the team now could probably coach the team.

But maybe he adds a little added incentive.

After Bettors Exploded the Line to -6.5, Sanity is Returning

AVELLO: We look at the power ratings of both teams, and that’s how we came up with a line. The line got bet up a little bit. We opened it up -3.5 [Raiders]. It’s been bet up to five. Right now, bettors like the Raiders a little in this spot, and I don’t know if that’s so much against the Colts or just that the Raiders are a much better team than they’ve shown so far.

Maybe they’re going to put it together. I don’t know the bettors’ reason for betting the Raiders in this one. When it comes right down to it, the Raiders shouldn’t be laying too many points.

Josh Allen’s Right Elbow a Much More Impactful Situation

AVELLO: Going back to what I said previously, a coach is not worth that much. What is a coach actually worth? You take [Nick Saban], I remember one game, he was out last year. They said he was out, and it meant about a 2.5-point difference in the line. Then it was announced he was going to be there, and it came all the way back to the original number.

So a coach like that is worth a lot more. And you’re dealing with kids here, too. A lot younger personnel makes a difference.

With a player, if you’re the quarterback, the best player, possibly, in the league, it makes a big difference. Now, the reason we’re at -3.5 on the [Bills] game is because we’re still not sure if he’s in or out.

If he’s out, this number could even drop more.

Remember, we opened this game nine. And that was before both teams even played last week. And then when the injury came back out, then we were at -7.5 with a possible injury that he may not play, then -6.5, then -5.5, and this thing just keeps on coming down. So right now I would say that he’s probably more out than he is in, and that’s reflective of what the bettors have been doing with it.

What Players’ Health Most Impacts a Betting Line?

AVELLO: A lot of that has to do with who the backup is if we’re looking at a quarterback.

Aaron Rogers was probably one of the top guys. He was probably worth anywhere from eight to 10 points. He’s not right now.

Patrick Mahomes is one of those guys, too. If when you go to the second-string guy, and he’s just adequate and maybe just follows the game plan and tries to get you through the game with a lot of runs and very few passes, that’s when your top guy is probably worth the most. But if you got a good second string — like the Raiders had Marcus Mariota last year, Derek Carr went out- – it’s not that much of a drop-off from Carr to Mariota.

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Has the Public Jumped on Seahawks Futures After Unexpectedly Good Start?

AVELLO: They do like ’em. They’ve been betting ’em a little bit. They still feel that you’ve got to go through Philly and some other teams to [win the NFC]. They’ve been betting them some. Right now, they’re sitting at 35-to-1 [to win the Super Bowl]. You could have had ’em in 125 range.

When you look at the rest of the league, teams are struggling. I mean, besides the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles, and the Vikings, you got Jets and Giants playing over their heads, it looks like you got Tampa and Green Bay struggling. Last year’s runner-up Cincinnati is just having a difficult time.

I think what’ll happen during the second half of the year, something’s going to shake out here. Are these teams that are supposed to be contenders, are they in it or are they out of it?

Seeing how if you got [Seattle] at 100-to-1, 125-to-1, you got good value.

Would you bet ’em at 35-to-1 now? Probably not. Because they still have to get by to 49ers, even though the Rams and Cardinals are having horrible years.

Also read: NFL Week 10 betting picks | Tips and strategies | Survivor picks

NFL Week 10 Betting Lines

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