This historic Final Four weekend wouldn’t be complete without Duke vs. North Carolina props to complement the proceedings. The Blue Devils and Tar Heels are very familiar with one another, but they’ve never met in the NCAA Tournament.
Duke and North Carolina both play with very short rotations. The Blue Devils’ starting five have accounted for 83.6 percent and 90.1 percent of the team’s minutes and scoring, respectively, during the NCAA Tournament. Those figures for the Tar Heels are 86.4 percent and 89.1 percent.
Secondly, over the past 10 years, the teams have combined to hit the ‘over’ in 16 of 30 contests (including the semifinal and title game). That should settle some of the concerns of those who buy into the narrative of teams struggling to shoot in massive venues.
Duke vs. North Carolina Props
Brady Manek Over 17.5 points (+102 FD)
Manek has not only lit up the scoreboard during the NCAA Tournament (21.5 PPG), but he averaged 20.5 points in his two meetings with the Blue Devils. He’s perhaps the Heels’ most dangerous perimeter shooter, but has scored efficiently overall this season.
Paolo Banchero Over 17.5 points (-115 DK)
The Final Four is the stage on which future NBA lottery picks shine, and shine is what Banchero is likely to do. He’s averaging 18.5 points during the NCAA Tournament, and has demonstrated improved proficiency from the line and beyond the arc, particularly in recent contests. The Tar Heels have some size, but it’s reasonable to expect them to struggle to contain Banchero.
Paolo Banchero Over 1.5 threes (+150 FD/DK)
Bettors wagering on Banchero going ‘over’ 17.5 points against the Heels on Saturday may be confident thanks to his recent improvement from deep. He only shot 33.3 percent from behind the arc during the regular season. However, he’s 8-for-15 in four March Madness contests. Even if his overall long-range efficiency leaves something to be desired, his volume of attempts should allow him to clip the ‘over’ here.
Caleb Love Under 15.5 points (-104 FD)
Love has certainly played his part in helping the Heels reach the Final Four. He went off for 23 points against Marquette and poured in 30 to help eliminate UCLA. The justification for leaning ‘under’ in this case is Love’s streakiness. He stayed ‘under’ 15.5 points in four of his last six, and was held to eight points in one of the season’s meetings with Duke. With three other Tar Heels capable of filling up the scoring column, Love won’t have to shoulder the burden.
Leaky Black Over 4.5 rebounds (+120 DK)
Black doesn’t do much scoring, but his contributions show up elsewhere, and that will include the glass on Saturday. He hasn’t been a dominant rebounder per se, averaging 4.3 boards on the season. However, he plays a ton of minutes and has collected five boards or more in four of his last eight. He also hit the mark in both contests against Duke this season.