Duke vs. North Carolina Betting History Suggests Underdog Heels Have Shot At Outright Win

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R.J. Davis and UNC were large underdogs when they beat Duke in March (AP Photo/Chris Seward)

Duke vs. North Carolina betting history has taught us the numbers can often be misleading. UNC fans are hoping that’s the case when the two storied rivals meet in a Final Four matchup — and for the first time ever in the NCAA Tournament.

Duke is a 4- to 4.5-point favorite at sportsbooks for Saturday’s game in New Orleans, and the Tar Heels are saddled with the longest odds to win it all, while the Blue Devils own the shortest.

Duke vs. North Carolina Betting History

Nothing compares to Duke and North Carolina meeting in the national semifinal, but we’re looking at their last 36 head-to-head meetings. A few trends stand out among the results:

  • 12 wins overall by the underdog
  • UNC 6 wins as an underdog
  • 2 covers as favorites of 10 or more points (one each)

With the team spotted points winning 33% of these matchups outright, including when UNC (+11) won handily at Cameron Indoor Stadium in March, underdog bettors will naturally look at the UNC moneyline, which FanDuel offers at +162 as of Wednesday.

Duke and North Carolina have met in four neutral-site games during the ACC Tournament over this span. Duke is 3-1 straight-up and 2-2 against the spread in those contests. The teams played to the ‘under’ three times in those matchups.

Duke and UNC combined to go ‘over’ totals of 152.5 and 153 in their two 2022 matchups. In fact, the ‘over’ has cashed in six straight meetings.

The total of 151 for the upcoming Final Four matchup is the lowest of the six most recent UNC-Duke games.

Individually, both teams have been clicking on all cylinders. Duke has covered three straight after failing to do so in five consecutive contests. The Blue Devils have played to the ‘over’ in eight of 10. North Carolina, meanwhile, has covered eight of nine, including winning three outright as underdogs over that span. Five of those nine games have seen the ‘over’ cash.

Each team is receiving significant contributions from its stars. Duke is projected to send up to five players to the NBA — Paolo Banchero, Wendell Moore Jr., Mark Williams, AJ Griffin, and Trevor Keels. Banchero, a presumptive top-3 selection, has filled the stat sheet during the Blue Devils’ tournament run.

The Tar Heels don’t boast the same caliber of future NBA stars, but their top players are performing at a high level nonetheless. They’ve received monster performances from Armando Bacot, Brady Manek, RJ Davis, and Caleb Love across their last four games. Another high-scoring demonstration by one of them could keep the Heels within striking distance. Another two could send North Carolina to the national title game.

The chart below details Duke vs. North Carolina betting history and results dating back to 2007.

DateSiteScoreATSTotal
March 5, 2022DukeUNC 94-81UNC +11153 (o)
February 5, 2022UNCDuke 87-67Duke -3.5152.5 (o)
March 6, 2021UNCUNC 91-73UNC -3152.5 (o)
February 6, 2021DukeUNC 91-87UNC +2.5147.5 (o)
March 7, 2020DukeDuke 89-76Duke -10.5155.5 (o)
February 8, 2020UNCDuke 98-96 (OT)Duke -7.5148.5 (o)
March 15, 2019NeutralDuke 74-73Duke -4.5165 (u)
March 9, 2019UNCUNC 79-70UNC -4.5166.5 (u)
February 20, 2019DukeUNC 88-72UNC +10165.5 (u)
March 9, 2018NeutralUNC 74-69UNC +4155.5 (u)
March 3, 2018DukeDuke 74-64Duke -7.5159 (u)
February 8, 2018UNCUNC 82-78UNC -1.5167.5 (u)
March 10, 2017NeutralDuke 93-83Duke +4154.5 (o)
March 4, 2017UNCUNC 90-83UNC -7156 (o)
February 9, 2017DukeDuke 86-78Duke -2.5164 (p)
March 5, 2016DukeUNC 76-72UNC -2.5160.5 (u)
February 17, 2016UNCDuke 74-73Duke +8.5163 (u)
March 7, 2015UNCDuke 84-77Duke +1154 (o)
February 18, 2015DukeDuke 92-90 (OT)Duke -8.5154.5 (o)
March 8, 2014DukeDuke 93-81Duke -9.5146 (o)
February 20, 2014UNCUNC 74-66UNC +2150 (u)
March 9, 2013UNCDuke 69-53Duke +2152 (u)
February 13, 2013DukeDuke 73-68Duke -10.5151.5 (u)
March 3, 2012DukeUNC 88-70UNC -2155 (o)
February 8, 2012UNCDuke 85-84Duke +6155 (o)
March 13, 2011NeutralDuke 75-58Duke -4.5147 (u)
March 5, 2011UNCUNC 81-67UNC -1.5150.5 (u)
February 9, 2011DukeDuke 79-73Duke -10.5156.5 (u)
March 6, 2010DukeDuke 82-50Duke -15145.5 (u)
February 10, 2010UNCDuke 64-54Duke -5.5155.5 (u)
March 8, 2009UNCUNC 79-71UNC -8.5165.5 (u)
February 11, 2009DukeUNC 101-87UNC -2154.5 (o)
March 8, 2008DukeUNC 76-68UNC +1.5169.5 (u)
February 6, 2008UNCDuke 89-78Duke +4.5164 (o)
March 4, 2007UNCUNC 86-72UNC -10147 (o)
February 7, 2007DukeUNC 79-73UNC -4139.5 (o)

Read more: Most Outstanding Player odds | Final Four propsDuke-UNC betting odds | Kansas-Villanova betting odds

About the Author
Craig Williams

Craig Williams

Craig Williams is a Charlotte-based writer for Gaming Today, who has worked professionally in the gaming, fantasy sports, and sports business industries. He’s an avid fantasy football player, managing over 100 leagues across multiple formats. When he’s not pouring over Vegas odds and statistics, he’s indulging in soccer and enjoys anything from LigaMX to Champions League.

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