Duke vs. North Carolina betting history has taught us the numbers can often be misleading. UNC fans are hoping that’s the case when the two storied rivals meet in a Final Four matchup — and for the first time ever in the NCAA Tournament.
Duke is a 4- to 4.5-point favorite at sportsbooks for Saturday’s game in New Orleans, and the Tar Heels are saddled with the longest odds to win it all, while the Blue Devils own the shortest.
Duke vs. North Carolina Betting History
Nothing compares to Duke and North Carolina meeting in the national semifinal, but we’re looking at their last 36 head-to-head meetings. A few trends stand out among the results:
- 12 wins overall by the underdog
- UNC 6 wins as an underdog
- 2 covers as favorites of 10 or more points (one each)
With the team spotted points winning 33% of these matchups outright, including when UNC (+11) won handily at Cameron Indoor Stadium in March, underdog bettors will naturally look at the UNC moneyline, which FanDuel offers at +162 as of Wednesday.
Duke and North Carolina have met in four neutral-site games during the ACC Tournament over this span. Duke is 3-1 straight-up and 2-2 against the spread in those contests. The teams played to the ‘under’ three times in those matchups.
Duke and UNC combined to go ‘over’ totals of 152.5 and 153 in their two 2022 matchups. In fact, the ‘over’ has cashed in six straight meetings.
The total of 151 for the upcoming Final Four matchup is the lowest of the six most recent UNC-Duke games.
Individually, both teams have been clicking on all cylinders. Duke has covered three straight after failing to do so in five consecutive contests. The Blue Devils have played to the ‘over’ in eight of 10. North Carolina, meanwhile, has covered eight of nine, including winning three outright as underdogs over that span. Five of those nine games have seen the ‘over’ cash.
Each team is receiving significant contributions from its stars. Duke is projected to send up to five players to the NBA — Paolo Banchero, Wendell Moore Jr., Mark Williams, AJ Griffin, and Trevor Keels. Banchero, a presumptive top-3 selection, has filled the stat sheet during the Blue Devils’ tournament run.
The Tar Heels don’t boast the same caliber of future NBA stars, but their top players are performing at a high level nonetheless. They’ve received monster performances from Armando Bacot, Brady Manek, RJ Davis, and Caleb Love across their last four games. Another high-scoring demonstration by one of them could keep the Heels within striking distance. Another two could send North Carolina to the national title game.
The chart below details Duke vs. North Carolina betting history and results dating back to 2007.
| Date | Site | Score | ATS | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 5, 2022 | Duke | UNC 94-81 | UNC +11 | 153 (o) |
| February 5, 2022 | UNC | Duke 87-67 | Duke -3.5 | 152.5 (o) |
| March 6, 2021 | UNC | UNC 91-73 | UNC -3 | 152.5 (o) |
| February 6, 2021 | Duke | UNC 91-87 | UNC +2.5 | 147.5 (o) |
| March 7, 2020 | Duke | Duke 89-76 | Duke -10.5 | 155.5 (o) |
| February 8, 2020 | UNC | Duke 98-96 (OT) | Duke -7.5 | 148.5 (o) |
| March 15, 2019 | Neutral | Duke 74-73 | Duke -4.5 | 165 (u) |
| March 9, 2019 | UNC | UNC 79-70 | UNC -4.5 | 166.5 (u) |
| February 20, 2019 | Duke | UNC 88-72 | UNC +10 | 165.5 (u) |
| March 9, 2018 | Neutral | UNC 74-69 | UNC +4 | 155.5 (u) |
| March 3, 2018 | Duke | Duke 74-64 | Duke -7.5 | 159 (u) |
| February 8, 2018 | UNC | UNC 82-78 | UNC -1.5 | 167.5 (u) |
| March 10, 2017 | Neutral | Duke 93-83 | Duke +4 | 154.5 (o) |
| March 4, 2017 | UNC | UNC 90-83 | UNC -7 | 156 (o) |
| February 9, 2017 | Duke | Duke 86-78 | Duke -2.5 | 164 (p) |
| March 5, 2016 | Duke | UNC 76-72 | UNC -2.5 | 160.5 (u) |
| February 17, 2016 | UNC | Duke 74-73 | Duke +8.5 | 163 (u) |
| March 7, 2015 | UNC | Duke 84-77 | Duke +1 | 154 (o) |
| February 18, 2015 | Duke | Duke 92-90 (OT) | Duke -8.5 | 154.5 (o) |
| March 8, 2014 | Duke | Duke 93-81 | Duke -9.5 | 146 (o) |
| February 20, 2014 | UNC | UNC 74-66 | UNC +2 | 150 (u) |
| March 9, 2013 | UNC | Duke 69-53 | Duke +2 | 152 (u) |
| February 13, 2013 | Duke | Duke 73-68 | Duke -10.5 | 151.5 (u) |
| March 3, 2012 | Duke | UNC 88-70 | UNC -2 | 155 (o) |
| February 8, 2012 | UNC | Duke 85-84 | Duke +6 | 155 (o) |
| March 13, 2011 | Neutral | Duke 75-58 | Duke -4.5 | 147 (u) |
| March 5, 2011 | UNC | UNC 81-67 | UNC -1.5 | 150.5 (u) |
| February 9, 2011 | Duke | Duke 79-73 | Duke -10.5 | 156.5 (u) |
| March 6, 2010 | Duke | Duke 82-50 | Duke -15 | 145.5 (u) |
| February 10, 2010 | UNC | Duke 64-54 | Duke -5.5 | 155.5 (u) |
| March 8, 2009 | UNC | UNC 79-71 | UNC -8.5 | 165.5 (u) |
| February 11, 2009 | Duke | UNC 101-87 | UNC -2 | 154.5 (o) |
| March 8, 2008 | Duke | UNC 76-68 | UNC +1.5 | 169.5 (u) |
| February 6, 2008 | UNC | Duke 89-78 | Duke +4.5 | 164 (o) |
| March 4, 2007 | UNC | UNC 86-72 | UNC -10 | 147 (o) |
| February 7, 2007 | Duke | UNC 79-73 | UNC -4 | 139.5 (o) |
Read more: Most Outstanding Player odds | Final Four props | Duke-UNC betting odds | Kansas-Villanova betting odds
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