Fiesta Bowl Odds & Prediction: Back the Wolverines for Michigan vs. TCU in the First Semifinal Game

The College Football Playoff Semifinals are finally here, and we are being treated to a wonderful matchup in the 2022 Fiesta Bowl. The Big Ten Champion Michigan Wolverines will take on the Big 12 Champion TCU Horned Frogs. 

Not only will this be a fantastic game, but the winner will make their first appearance in the College Football Playoff National Championship game. Every bowl game matters for those who like to place a wager or two while you watch, but this is the playoffs, and the stakes could not be any higher. 

With that being said, we are here to give you everything you need to know about this game and which side to pick as we look at Michigan vs. TCU odds for the 2022 Fiesta Bowl. 

Michigan vs. TCU Betting Lines: Point Spread, Total, Moneyline

If you plan on placing a bet on this game, we advise you to shop for the best Fiesta Bowl odds. As a sign of courtesy, we have included the current lines from top US sportsbook apps for Michigan vs. TCU. 

Michigan vs. TCU Betting News: Key Trends

Michigan

• Michigan is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last five games
• Michigan is 4-2 ATS in their last six matchups against a Big 12 opponent
• The total has gone Over in four of Michigan’s last five games played in December
• Michigan is 16-0 straight up (SU) in their last 16 when playing as the favorite

TCU

• TCU is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games
• The total has gone Under in four of TCU’s last five games
• The total has gone Over in four of TCU’s last six games when playing as the underdog
• TCU is 12-1 SU in their last 13 games

How to Watch Michigan vs. TCU

Date: Saturday, Dec. 31 | Kickoff: 4 p.m. ET

Location: State Farm Stadium: Glendale, AZ

Where to Watch: ESPN

Michigan Wolverines (13-0, 8-4-1 Against the Spread)

If you have watched this Michigan team throughout Jim Harbaugh‘s tenure, it is pretty shocking that not only is he still the head coach of his alma mater, but that Michigan is back in the College Football Playoff Semifinals for the second-straight season and that they beat Ohio State to get there both years. 

But Michigan is in the spot that they are because Harbaugh went back to his roots of being a physical, ground-and-pound football team, and he has created a program that is easy to buy into. They do not get the five or four-star recruits at the same level as teams like Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia, etc., but they get their guys and make it work. 

If you will remember the Shea Patterson era for the Wolverines, they went into this quasi-tough spread offense, it simply did not work, and they fell behind their competition. Now, they sprinted through their schedule, went undefeated in the regular season, and proved that there has been a slight changing of the guard in the Big Ten. 

Michigan will be without Blake Corum for the rest of the season, which is not great since this offense is predicated on the run, but he also was not healthy to play against Ohio State.  We saw this offensive line pummel a Buckeye front-seven and running back Donovan Edwards (rushed for a total of 401 yards and three touchdowns since Corum went down) has been huge for the Wolverines. 

Michigan will not be able to just walk all over TCU’s defense as they did to Ohio State. J.J. McCarthy will have to do a little more than throw to guys who are open by 30 yards. Still, McCarthy is doing just enough for this offense to make the passing attack acceptable, and his athleticism plays a significant role as Michigan can keep the ball on the ground, dominate up front, and let their defense do what they do. 

TCU Horned Frogs (12-1, 9-3-1 ATS)

The Horned Frogs are one of the best stories in college football because no one expected them to be here. In fact, their preseason odds of making the College Football Playoffs were around 200-1, which is the longest preseason odds to ever make the dance. 

They did suffer a little scare after falling to Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship game, but they already beat the Wildcats earlier in the year. They also finished the regular season undefeated, but not without a few close calls. TCU played in five one-score games in the regular season, and they went through a stretch where they knocked the starting quarterback of the opposing team out, including knocking out Kansas State’s starter and backup. 

It took a comeback effort in double OT to beat Oklahoma State, a game-winning field goal as time expired to take down Baylor. There were a lot of games where you thought, “welp, here it is,” and then they just found a way. This is primarily due to Heisman trophy candidate Max Duggan, who was not the team’s starter at the beginning of the year and has blossomed into a star. Duggan enters this game completing 65% of his passes for 9.0 yards per completion and 30 touchdowns with only four interceptions.

Luckily for Duggan, he has a pretty impressive skill room to play with, including Quentin Johnston, who played himself into first-round pick conversations. TCU also has a defense that is better than what the stats tell you, but they are prone to get roughed up in the front seven, which would be a death blow against this Michigan team. 

Fiesta Bowl Prediction

The Horned Frogs just keep finding ways to win football games this season that it almost feels wrong to pick against them. However, like Michigan’s matchup with Georgia in the College Football Playoff Semifinals last season, this is a nightmare matchup for TCU. 

They will be able to score and move the ball downfield, but the question is: can they do that for the entire game? Michigan has started slow in almost every game they have played this season, and then they turn their physicality up a notch and just maul teams in the second half. 

First-year coach Sonny Dykes has done a great job keeping this team focused even when their back was against the wall, but they have not played a team that can smash them.

Again, this will be a close game for about three quarters and then Michigan will do what they do and snatch your soul. Currently, the Wolverines are a 7.5-point favorite in most sportsbooks, and seeing that hook on a common margin of defeat is scary. But trust your eyes and lay the points with Michigan. 

Pick: Michigan -7.5 (-110); odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Scroll through the lines: College football bowl game odds