Odds, analysis, and picks for several Friday college football games, on an unusually large holiday slate, that will serve as a springboard to Saturday’s packed wagering menu.
Lines listed are current as of Tuesday.
NCAAF · Fri (11/26) @ 12:00pm ET
|Doyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling Green, Ohio|
Ohio Bobcats at Bowling Green Falcons
Line (BetMGM): Ohio -5.5, 48.5
A pair of 3-8 teams don’t usually generate much attention. But this one is an exception, and CBSSN will televise.
Five of the host’s past six games have sailed over their totals, and they’ve yielded an average of nearly 42 points to those opponents. Ohio’s previous six opponents have averaged 31 points.
The past four between these two have seen 62, 90, 63, and 78 points being tallied. Two of our models have 59 and 55 points being scored.
Ohio at Bowling Green Pick
We liked the ‘over’ at the opening total of 45.5, but the value has been bought up in early wagering.
NCAAF · Fri (11/26) @ 7:00pm ET
|Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, North Carolina|
North Carolina Tar Heels at North Carolina State Wolfpack
Line (Caesars): NC State -5.5, 62.5
In his ninth season in Raleigh, Wolfpack coach Dave Doeren is on the verge of his third nine-win season. His squad is 7-2 ATS as a home favorite over the past two seasons, and it’s won all six inside Carter-Finley this year.
In fact, NC State (8-3) is 26-6 at home in the past five years. Look for a rabid home crowd for this ESPN primetime contest.
The Heels (6-5) are 0-4 away from home this season. And they’ve allowed 0.538 points per play on defense, a bottom-25 national rate, over their past three games. NC State quarterback Devin Leary, 13th in the country with 3,186 aerial yards, is poised to capitalize against those holes.
North Carolina at North Carolina State
NC State -5.5
South Florida Bulls at UCF Knights
Line (PointsBet): UCF -18.5 (-105), 62
Bulls fans had better brace themselves. USF (2-9) has been rubbish on pass defense lately, allowing its past three foes to complete 78.9% of their attempts, last among the nation’s 130 Division-I programs over that span. It’s also 0-5 on the highway this season.
UCF (7-4) is 6-0 at home. Knights quarterback Mikey Keene, a 5-foot-11 true freshman from Arizona, should have a field day on ESPN. He’s had 64.7% accuracy this season, with 15 TDs and six interceptions. In his past four games, he has 10 TDs and one pick. And, yup, his name is Mikey.
South Florida at UCF Pick
The opening line of UCF -14 presented plenty of value on the favorite, but with the line getting bet up to -18, that value is gone.
Boise State Broncos at No. 22 San Diego State Aztecs
Line (Caesars): Boise -2.5, 44
This is a 9 a.m. local kickoff, the price for a national CBS television audience when you’re a minnow like San Diego State. The No. 22 Aztecs appear to have been riding high, at 10-1. Their defense and kicking game, thanks to Matt Araiza’s bionic left leg, have been stellar.
The SDSU quarterback position, however, has been dreadful. Those first two units will have to shine to win this one and claim a spot in the Mountain West title game.
Boise State (7-4) has won four in a row, and it has recorded passing and rushing touchdowns in each of those victories. One of our models has 55 points being scored, two others 46 each.
Boise State at San Diego State Pick