Future book has good opportunities

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After Rudy Gobert tested positive for the coronavirus that triggered most of the sports leagues to suspend play to where it was only NASCAR and the PGA Tour among the top leagues that were going on as scheduled for the weekend without fans in attendance.

I thought with not much to bet on that NASCAR would find random action from people who just thrive on the thrill of betting anything. But it wasn’t to be. On Friday morning NASCAR said qualifying and the race would be run on Saturday instead with no practices and no fans, and then about 30 minutes later they scrapped the idea altogether and sent out a press release that the Atlanta and Homestead races would be postponed for the safety and well being of their fans, competitors, and officials. The PGA did the same thing after completing the first round of The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass.

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But for all of you out there that may have bet on NASCAR for the first time and were denied the opportunity last weekend, might I suggest whenever the season resumes to give it another shot.

And for your best value on betting odds to win, may I suggest the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, William Hill and Circa Sports who offer the lowest theoretic hold percentage in the state. The SuperBook shoots for 25 percent each week, William Hill’s is always around 27 percent, and Circa blew the doors off Las Vegas history with a 20 percent hold last week.

What I noticed with Circa’s Atlanta odds last week was that they had the best prices in town on the favorites, and favorites are favorites for a reason because they usually win. But if you can get 12-1 instead of 10-1 on Alex Bowman or +545 on the favored Kevin Harvick who was 9-2 everywhere else, you play it every time with a better price.

In this downtime before the sports leagues get back to work do yourself a favor and go downtown, sign-up for the Circa app, and get the best prices for each race. They offer the best value for all futures and it’s by design to give them a competitive edge.

What separates one sportsbook from another? They all offer lines on games, they all show the games live, most have in-progress wagering, most are clean and offer great guest service with comps available. But it’s in the price splits and future odds offered by Circa that gives them an edge.

When will racing resume? Monday, NASCAR issued the following statement regarding its schedule:

“The health and safety of our fans, industry and the communities in which we race is our most important priority, so in accordance with recent CDC guidance, NASCAR is currently postponing all race events through May 3rd, with plans to return racing in Martinsville.

“We appreciate the patience of our fans and we look forward to returning to the racetrack. We intend to hold all 36 races this season, with future rescheduling soon to be determined as we continue to monitor this situation closely with public health officials and medical experts.”

If that’s the case, we certainly have plenty of time on our hands to study and chart out a plan to bet. The future book remains open and let’s discuss a few decent bets to win the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series Championship with odds offered by the SuperBook.

Only four races have passed, but I got enough of a preview in those four races to justify commentary because the teams used three different race packages. I’ve got enough data to feel comfortable throwing out a few names you could invest in.

Alex Bowman (16-1): He opened at 40-1 odds and the price reduction is warranted and maybe still generous. He won at Fontana and had the best car late a week earlier in Las Vegas. Those two races using the race package will be raced the most this season, including five races during the playoffs. He had a top-2 car in both races, and he probably would have won at Atlanta.

Brad Keselowski (10-1): I love players on contract years because they always do whatever it takes to win and look good for negotiating purposes. Keselowski has watched both his Team Penske teammates get big contract extensions. The 2012 Cup Champ has great cars and he’s got something to prove.

Chase Elliott (8-1): He was fourth at Fontana behind his teammate Bowman’s win, and had the best car at Las Vegas until getting a flat tire in the final stage. He’s going to a diverse lineup of wins on road courses, superspeedways and intermediate tracks. Despite being down two wins to Joey Logano after four races, I’ll suggest he still has a chance at the most wins in 2020.

Kevin Harvick (6-1): The 2014 Cup Champ is the only driver with four top-10s in the first four races. He’s very good with all three race packages. He led the most laps (92) at Las Vegas.

Denny Hamlin (12-1): The Joe Gibbs cars don’t look as impressive as they did in 2019 when his teammate Kyle Busch won the title. Three of the four Gibbs drivers participated in the Championship 4 at Homestead. By the time the playoffs start, his car will be perfect.

Jimmie Johnson (16-1): His seven NASCAR Cup Championships are tied with Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt for the most in series history. He’s retiring after the 2020 season, or so he says, but after four races he’s fifth in points. In the tracks that matter the most to winning, the intermediate tracks he won on to win many titles, he was fifth at Las Vegas and seventh at Fontana. He’s a player again.

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