Earlier this week, I went down to one of my favorite sportsbooks on the planet, the SuperBook at the Westgate.
I love the book for many reasons. Not just because it’s a great place to watch the games and I know most of the staff well, but because they have the widest variety and the most up-to-date sheets on props and futures out there.
It’s no surprise that eight of the best teams in baseball are all listed with the shortest odds to win the 2019 World Series:
It would not just surprise me, but astound me if one of these teams were not to win the Fall Classic.
As you know, I am not a big believer in futures. I don’t like locking my money up for months with very little value to show for it. However, I do feel there is value offered right now on the 12-1 and 18-1 teams. So, if you feel Minnesota, Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland or Washington is going to win it all, then by all means this is the time to pull the trigger.
One such futures bet that I find fun and exciting is for the Home Run Title. You pick yourself a solid and proven long ball hitter on a good lineup, and you have action every day for the entire season.
It may come as a shock to many of you to know that the top-five favorites as per the opening odds, are all given almost no chance of winning the HR crown. Giancarlo Stanton was 7-1 and is now 1000-1. Aaron Judge opened 12-1 and is now 500-1. J.D. Martinez opened 18-1 and is now 300-1. Joey Gallo opened 20-1 and is now 80-1. And Khris Davis opened 20-1 and is now 500-1.
Currently, six of the top-10 leaders in HR’s are listed as the favorites:
Cody Bellinger 2-1
Christian Yelich 9-4
Mike Trout 3-1
Peter Alonso 7-2
Josh Bell 14-1
Edwin Encarnacion 20-1
I think it’s up for the taking as of today. Despite being tied for third in Team HR’s, the Yankees don’t have any sluggers in the race. So I am cheering for Mike Trout, who is my vote for MVP right now.
But, there are quite a few players that have a shot to win this. If you are looking for some fun and everyday action, this is the way to go.
Speaking of action, here are this week’s Best Bets (all records, stats, and trends are as of print and may change as can starting pitchers):
Dodgers at Rockies: The Dodgers aren’t just distancing themselves from the rest of the NL West with a 14.5-game lead, they are separating themselves from the rest of the National League, owning a Major League best 69-38 record heading into this week’s play.
LA has had its way with just about every team, but are an astounding 29-15 vs. the West. They face a Colorado team they have dominated, taking eight of 10 meetings in 2019.
Team ERA and wins leader, Hyun-Jin Ryu takes the hill here. The left-hander has an 11-2 record, with an ERA of 1.74. On the No. 1 pitching staff in all of baseball, the native of South Korea is the ace.
The Rockies are in the division cellar, 19.5 games behind the Dodgers at 49-57. This is a team that finished the 2018 campaign a game back of the Dodgers at 91-72. To say this season is a disappointment is an understatement.
They send German Marquez to the bump. The RH has a 10-5 record with a 4.88 ERA. The 24-year olds ERA is 5.67 over his last 15 turns. Going up against a Los Angeles lineup that accounts for over 5.47 RPG on the road tells me it’s going to be a rough outing for him.
The Dodgers are 6-2 the last eight games played at Coors Field and 21-8 the last 29 overall games vs. the Rockies. The Rockies are 0-4 the last four games played at home and 0-8 the last eight games played vs. the NL West. DODGERS RUN LINE
Twins at Marlins: Minnesota has been this season’s most pleasant surprise. Since opening day, the Twins have been one of the AL’s best teams. However, over the last month, they have struggled, going 10-16, and allowed the Indians to climb to within two games in the AL Central.
Owners of the worst record in the NL (40-63), Miami is just horrible. The Marlins offense (or lack thereof) ranks 29th in scoring (3.56 RPG), 27th in Team BA (.238), and 30th in HR’s (85). It doesn’t matter that these two teams haven’t met in over two years.
Minnesota gives Jose Berrios the nod here. The right-hander has a 9-5 record with an ERA of 2.94, fanning 122 batters in 134.2 IP. Miami will go with Sandy Alcantara, who owns a 4-9 mark, with a 4.18 ERA along with a mere 84 K’s in 118.1 IP. TWINS RUN LINE
Astros at Indians: In a series featuring two of last season’s AL playoff combatants, two of this season’s hottest squads square off here.
Houston is a bit more dangerous at the plate, while both possess top-five pitching staffs. The Astros give veteran pitcher, Gerrit Cole the start. He owns a career 86-52 record with a lifetime ERA of 3.32 in 182 starts. “Cole Train” is having an exceptional campaign, donning a 12-5 record, with a 2.94 ERA, leading the Majors with 212 K’s.
Cleveland counters with Zach Plesac, who in his first Major League season owns a 5-3 record with a respectable 3.10 ERA. But Plesac has just 44 strikeouts in 61.0 IP. Facing one of baseball’s most powerful lineups with very little experience is going to be fatal for the 24-year old.
Houston is 5-2 the last seven games played vs. Cleveland, 4-1 the last five games played on the road and 9-2 the last 11 games played overall. The four meetings between these two teams this season ranged from even money up to -$1.50. If this line rises above that range, don’t be afraid to lay the run and a half. ASTROS
Last week: 1-1