Odds Analysis For Game Five of NLDS
The Dodgers will face the Giants in a winner-take-all game in Sa Francisco on Thursday at 9:07 PM EST. This will be the third time the two teams have faced each other in a winner-take-all contest, and the first time in the postseason. In both 1951 and 1962, the Dodgers and Giants played a three-game playoff to decide the NL pennant. Both times the Giants won Game Three.
Starting Pitching Matters…Until It Doesn’t
The pitching matchup is Corey Knebel (LA) vs. Logan Webb (SF). But as we’ve seen throughout this series, the starting pitching won’t necessarily decide the game. In tight games, the bullpen can be more crucial.
Webb made his first postseason start in Game One, when he went 7 2/3 innings and struck out 10 Dodgers while allowing ZERO runs. Knebel pitches out of the bullpen, and his late choice to replace Julio Urias as starter for LA, is a sign that the Dodgers see this as a bullpen game.
It’s tough for pitchers to have two straight outing of success against the same team. The Giants and Dodgers know each other very well. But in Game Fives, you can see some tight hitters and low scores. FanDuel has the Under (3.5 runs) at -128. This could be a low scoring game, like Game Three in Dodger Stadium.
Expect a very tight leash on the starting pitchers. Both teams have rested bullpens, and will run everyone out there to win this game. Most sportsbooks are not offering odds on strikeouts and starting pitcher performances because this type of game is very hard to predict when it comes to pitcher usage.
First Inning Score Bet
How about +3600 from FanDuel on the first inning score being 3-0, Dodgers? All it takes is a bloop, a walk, and a homer. Even 1-0 Dodgers (+750) or 1-0 Giants (+700) are appetizing options.
Nerves can be on edge for a deciding game, and it can take a little while for pitchers to get into a groove. Also, they Urías and Webb could be so amped up that they overthrow early, giving the other team baserunners and scoring chances.
I like stars to come up big in big games. Here are FanDuel odds for RBIs in this Game 5:
To Record 3+ RBIs (FanDuel)
- Corey Seager +1800
- Trea Turner +1500
- Chris Taylor +1800
- Mookie Betts +1800
- Buster Posey +1700
- Brandon Crawford +1600
- Evan Longoria +1800
- Kris Bryant +1700
Longoria hit a homer in Game Three, and Bryant has the postseason pedigree. I like them as potential heroes in this game.
Giants Find A Way To Win…Again
The ghosts of ’51 and ’62 will be on The Bay on Thursday to assist the Giants, as they squeak past their rivals. Both teams have 109 wins this season, and the 110th will be the one to decide once and for all which of these NL West teams is superior in 2021.
The Giants have stayed one step ahead of the LA all year. Why should it change now? Take the Giants on the Moneyline and consider going the OVER for runs scored early and overall.