Giants vs. Commanders Odds & Prediction: NFC East Rivalry on SNF

Two weeks ago in the Meadowlands, the Commanders were 2.5-point favorites and the teams played to a 20-20 tie, one of two draws in the league this year.

With four weeks remaining in the season, both teams’ division title hopes already have been extinguished, but they currently hold down the second and third wild-card slots in the conference (Commanders and Giants in that order).

Yet the squads aren’t getting any love from bettors on the Super Bowl 57 futures boards. Among the NFL’s 14 squads that hold playoff spots, the Giants have by far the longest odds to win the championship at +20000 (DraftKings). Washington is available at +9000 (FanDuel).

New York (9-4 against the spread) has nose-dived since its 6-1 start under rookie head coach Brian Daboll, going 1-4-1 and their Super odds lengthening substantially from +4100 in late October. Last week, they were overwhelmed by NFC East frontrunner Philadelphia 48-22, their most lopsided defeat of the season and their third loss by at least 13 points during their downturn.

The Commanders (7-5-1 ATS), meanwhile, have been one of the hottest teams in the league since losing four straight in Weeks 2-5 to drop to 1-4. The turnabout coincides with backup QB Taylor Heinicke taking over for injured Carson Wentz, who’s healthy now but relegated to reserve status. Heinicke is 5-1-1 since getting his first start in Game 7, including their 32-21 win five weeks ago in Philadelphia as an 11-point underdog. It’s the second-biggest upset in the league this season.

Oddly, though, Heinicke is only the 24th-rated passer in the league, three spots below Atlanta’s Marcus Mariota who was just benched. In 16 games last year, Heinicke was ranked 25th.

As for Sunday’s game, the Giants’ hopes likely will revolve around the ability of RB Saquon Barkley, the league’s fourth-leading rusher, to at least approach matching his early-season production. Since having a career-high 35 carries for 152 yards against Houston in Week 10, he’s totaled only 152 yards the past four weeks and averaged 2.9 a carry. It was a game-time decision whether he’d play last week (neck), but he’s not listed on preliminary injury reports as of Wednesday morning.

If he’s having success, so might QB Daniel Jones connecting with WR Darius Slayton, who’s averaging 17.4 yards on his 35 receptions. That’s the second-highest norm for anyone with at least that many catches.

A key for the Commanders is trying to overcome health issues to key players on defense.

LB Jamin Davis, the team’s leading tackler, has a thumb injury but is expected to play. Cornerback Benjamin St-Juste, the club leader in passes defensed, has missed the past two games with an ankle injury and is questionable. And so are their star defensive ends: Montez Sweat, with seven sacks, is in concussion protocol. Chase Young, the second overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, is coming off a torn ACL.

One more thing: Although Washington is coming off a bye, it’s probably wise not to overestimate the value of a week’s rest when it comes to point spreads. Over the past three seasons, teams off a Week 14 or 15 bye and playing a team that played the week before have gone only 4-5-1 ATS.

And another thing: The weather forecast calls for temps in the mid-to-high 20s with little wind and a zero chance of precipitation.