We have an AL Central rivalry game on MLB on Apple TV+ tonight, as the Cleveland Guardians take on the Chicago White Sox. Both teams have recently made some trades, and while only one of these teams is still realistically alive for the playoffs, this should be a great matchup.
The Guardians are only 1.5 back of the Twins entering Friday night’s action for the top spot in the Central. Meanwhile, the White Sox are 22 games below .500, and the fire-sale of major league talent has already begun, as they traded Lucas Giolito to the Angels.
If you need help making a betting pick for this game, we have you covered, as we break down the action with a Guardians vs. White Sox predictions, odds, and props preview.
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Guardians vs. White Sox Betting Odds: Run Line, Moneyline, Total
Before making your Guardians vs. White Sox pick, check out the odds and lines from the top US sports betting apps. This will ensure you get the best numbers for your wager, and with each sportsbook having its own bonus offers, you can rake in the bonus bets for tonight’s action.
Here are the Guardians vs. White Sox odds from some of our favorite mobile sportsbooks.
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Guardians vs. White Sox Betting Trends
Here are some trends to consider for tonight’s Guardians vs. White Sox matchup. Keep in mind that betting trends are not a clear indicator of which side to pick, but they are among the tools in a sports bettor’s arsenal.
Guardians Betting Trends
- The total has gone Over in 8 of Cleveland’s last 11 games.
- Cleveland is 5-2 SU in its last seven games.
- The total has gone Over in five of Cleveland’s last five road games.
- Cleveland is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games against the AL Central.
White Sox Betting Trends
- The total has gone Over in five of Chicago’s last six games
- Chicago is 0-6 SU in its last six games
- The total has gone Under in four of Chicago’s last five games against Cleveland.
- Chicago is 2-5 SU in its last seven home games against Cleveland.
MLB odds: Run lines, moneylines, totals
Guardians’ Offensive Woes
The reigning Al Central champions are still in the race for back-to-back division titles, but the offense has been brutal this season. As a team, the Guardians’ offense ranks last in home runs (79), ISO (.133), Barrel% (5%), HardHit% (32.9%), and average exit velocity.
They have been much better at hitting for power over the last month but still rank around the middle of the league. Most of their offensive production has come from the bats of Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor. While both are coming off tough stretches, Ramirez reintroduced himself with a two-home-run performance against the Royals, and Naylor’s progression as a hitter continues to be shocking.
While he has struggled as of late, Naylor is slashing .304/.345/.504 with a .355 wOBA and a 128 wRC+. He had his first good MLB season in 2022 but was practically useless against lefties. Entering this season, the talk around the team was whether Naylor could play against left-handed pitching. The signing of Josh Bell in the offseason pointed toward that, but Naylor has a slash of .281/.317/.469 with a .786 OPS and a 113 wRC+ against lefties this season.
While Naylor and Ramirez have been fantastic, much of last season’s production has taken a massive step back, most notably Andres Gimenez. He has been much better in July, but Gimenez is not hitting the ball as hard and is chasing at more pitches.
The most surprising part of the Guardians’ season has been the pitching. They have gotten so unlucky with injuries that trading Amed Rosario for Noah Syndergaard was a much-needed move to acquire a guy who can eat innings.
However, the Guardians’ starter for tonight, Xzavion Curry, has been filling in the rotation and has been fairly solid. His role should be more catered around being a long-reliever, but Curry has a 2.98 ERA in 54.1 IP and has only allowed two runs in his last five appearances.
White Sox Entering a Rebuild?
The vibes could not possibly be any lower on the South Side, as a once up-and-coming team is staring right down the barrel of a rebuild. They have already dealt Giolito, and with guys like Lance Lynn, Dylan Cease, and Tim Anderson potentially on the move, things will get ugly soon for the White Sox.
Many of the big names they signed and traded for have fallen off the cliff, and the young guys are not producing at the level we once thought they would. Guys like Yasmani Grandal, Yoan Moncada, and Andrew Benintendi have almost become untradable based on how bad they have been.
The only tradeable assets they actually have are the starting pitchers, as well as Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez. Both Robert and Jimenez are locked up for a few years, but there are not a lot of assets to trade to surround those two with a fresh team while they are under contract.
Everything is just a mess right now for the White Sox, and they have a bad matchup against a Cleveland lineup that is hitting the ball very well this month. Chicago will send out Touki Toussaint to get the start tonight, and while he has had a couple of decent starts, his 4.06 ERA, 4.93 FIP, and 6.39 BB/9 are very concerning.
The bullpen has also been awful, especially this month, as they have allowed 54 runs in 87.0 IP. Now, the offense still has some pop, which is a benefit when playing the worst power-hitting offense in baseball. However, we have seen that when teams start blowing it up, the morale also goes out the door.
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Guardians vs. White Sox Prop Bets
Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110, BetMGM)
One of the most underrated players in baseball continues to be just that. While he is not hitting the ball as well as last year, he still enters tonight with a slash of .288/.358/.495 with a .853 OPS. While Ramirez’s ISO is the lowest it has been since 2016, his Barrel% is up to 7.3% this season, and he ranks in the top 20% of the league in xwOBA, xSLG, and max exit velocity.
He has struggled over his last few games, outside of a two-home-run day against the Royals, but he is swinging the bat very well since the all-star break, and he has a favorable matchup tonight. He has always dominated right-handed pitching, and this year is no different.
Ramirez enters tonight with a slash of .319/.399/.531 and an OPS of .930 against righties, and he has hit 10 of his 16 home runs this season against right-handed pitching. While Toussaint does an excellent job at limiting barrels and hard contact, his fastball has been largely ineffective this year, and Ramirez has been crushing fastballs this season.
Guardians vs. White Sox Prediction
This is a matchup of two bad offenses going up against two uninspiring starting pitchers. But one team is in the middle of a potential complete teardown, while the other is in the middle of a division title race and playing good baseball.
The White Sox still hit the ball hard, and with Curry on the mound, they can jump out to a big lead early in this game. The Guardians’ offense is not good enough to be able to come back from a large deficit, so if the White Sox can find the long ball, they can win this game.
However, Cleveland’s offense has been swinging well this month, and Chicago also has a questionable starter on the mound. We have seen many times how teams roll over after it is clear they are sellers, and that is the sense I get with the White Sox.
We will ride with the Guardians’ moneyline odds tonight as they continue their climb back up the AL Central standings.
Guardians vs. White Sox Pick: Guardians ML (-138) via FanDuel Sportsbook
How To Watch Guardians vs. White Sox
Date: Friday, July 28, 2023
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Location: Guaranteed Rate Field — Chicago, Il
Where to Watch: Apple Tv+
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