A shocking walkoff loss in Game 3 has dropped the Yankees to +186 to win their American League Division Series against the Cleveland Guardians, according to FanDuel. At least one sportsbook still lists the Yankees as favorites to win Game 4 Sunday on the road.
The Guardians scored three runs in the bottom of the ninth on Saturday night to pin a loss on the favored Yankees and take a 2-1 series lead.
An early line from DraftKings Sportsbook for Game 4 has the Yankees favored to knot the series (-145), and the still disrespected Guardians at +125. FanDuel has the Yanks at -164 to even the series with a win in Game 4, and Cleveland priced at a tempting +138. That means Cleveland fans can win $138 on a $100 bet if their favorite team finishes off the Yankees on Sunday.
Odds on the Yankees to win the World Series plummeted to +1200 at Caesars. The Yankees were +525 according to Caesars before the Division Series round began.
Guardians starter Triston McKenzie made two mistakes in five innings, but unfortunately they both became souvenirs: two-run homers by Aaron Judge and Oswaldo Cabrera. Yankee center fielder Harrison Bader, who has become the resident mascot cheerleader for the Pinstripers, hit his second homer of this series in the sixth to give New York a two-run cushion. But two Yankee relievers (with a combined 3 1/3 innings of postseason experience) surrendered five singles and the G’s sent the Cleveland crowd into rapturous delight with a 6-5 walkoff win.
Cleveland is listed at +800 by BetMGM to win the World Series now that they are up 2-1 in this ALDS. Previously, that number was +2500 after the team lost Game 1.
Guardians vs. Yankees, Game 4 ALDS
Here are odds for the Yankees at Guardians Game 4 ALDS matchup slated for Sunday, Oct. 16:
Guardians vs. Yankees Pitching Matchup, Game 4 ALDS
Gerrit Cole (1-0, 1.42 ERA in postseason) vs. Cal Quantrill (0-1, 5.40 ERA in the postseason)
Cole won Game 1 when he struck out eight Guardians and pitched into the seventh last Tuesday. He’ll be trying to defeat the same lineup twice within five days, a tall task even for baseball’s strikeout king. These are the games the Yankees pay Cole so much money to pitch and win, and fans of the Bombers will expect him to pitch better than he did last October when he was knocked out of his Wild Card start against the Red Sox in the third inning. In the Bronx, you’re only as good as you perform on the big stage, and so far, Cole is more Kevin Brown Yankees postseason than Andy Pettitte Yankees postseason.
Quantrill is at a decided advantage: in Game 1 he gave up two home runs, one to Bader and the other to Anthony Rizzo. He’s yet to prove to the Yankees lineup that he can handle the postseason pressure, and after an embarrassing loss that probably has the ghost of George Steinbrenner stirring, the NY lineup is bound to be aggressive on Game 4.
Cleveland Guardians’ Oscar Gonzalez watches his single that drove in the winning run against the New York Yankees during the ninth inning of Game 3 of a baseball AL Division Series, Saturday, Oct. 15, 2022, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/David Dermer)
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Yankees, Guardians ALDS Game 4 Prediction
Aaron Judge finally started hitting like a league MVP in Game 3. But his two-run homer only served to underscore the one-dimensional aspect of this Yankees lineup. For a second straight October, the Yankees are in danger of being ushered out of the postseason because their batters can’t make contact and generate stressful innings with bunches of hits. In the MLB Playoffs, manager Aaron Boone’s team too often is like the “Just Yanks,” as in only yanking home runs.
Cleveland is in control of this series at home in front of their fans. The youngest team in baseball is revealing a secret sauce that has baseball sitting up to take notice: swinging for singles is often more important in the playoffs than swinging for the shingles.
The Guardians banged out a postseason-high 15 hits in Game 3, all but two of them singles. While extra-base hits and home runs are wonderful, it’s not realistic to expect the power game to carry you in most postseason contests. The Yankees are learning that the only thing 254 regular season home runs gets you in the playoffs is a gaudy number on the scoreboard’s player stats line when you come to the plate. New York has scored 11 runs in this series, and 10 have come due to the home run. Outside of their six homers this series, the Yankees have only ten hits in three games. Also troubling: the Yanks have struck out 32 times in 29 innings.
We think the difference in Game 4 will be Tito Francona, who has managed a myriad of crucial playoff games in his career. Francona won’t say it, but he’ll manage Game 4 like his team must win it at all costs. For that reason, the Cleveland bullpen, which has allowed only one run and one hit(!) in 11 1/3 innings in this series, will be used as soon as needed. For that reason, we think Cleveland will close out the Yankees in Game 4.
GAME 4 PICK:
Guardians +150 from Caesars.
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