Heat vs. Celtics Game 5 Predictions, Odds, Props: Series Price Tightens

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MIA Heat vs BOS Celtics Odds NBA Odds

NBA · Thu (5/25) @ 8:30pm ET

MIA Heat at BOS Celtics
TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts

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The Boston Celtics avoided a sweep with a Game 4 victory over the Miami Heat. Now, the Eastern Conference Finals series turns back to Boston, and we are here to break down Heat vs. Celtics Game 5 predictions, odds, and props, and to take a fresh look at the series price,

With Tuesday’s victory, the Celtics have a little life, and with the series heading back to Boston, a Game 5 win can make things very interesting. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Celtics are 8-point home favorites for Game 5. Also, the Celtics series price, which was +700 prior to Game 4, is now down to +220.

Still, Boston has to do what no other team has done before and come back from a 3-0 deficit. If you want to bet on the Heat vs. Celtics odds, we are here to help as we will give our best predictions for Game 5. 

Read More: Odds to win 2023 NBA Finals | NBA Playoff game betting lines | NBA Finals MVP odds

Heat vs. Celtics Game 5 Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total

Although Boston is down 3-1 and has lost both games at the TD Garden this series, the oddsmakers still have a lot of respect for this team. At most of the top US sports betting apps, the Celtics are 7.5 to 8-point favorites at home on Thursday night.

Before making your Heat vs. Celtics Game 5 bets, check out all the mobile sportsbooks available to you to get the best odds and lines for your wager.

Here are Heat vs. Celtics odds for Game 5, including spread, moneyline, and total.

Bet TypeSpreads
Open
Mon (5/29) @ 8:30pm ET MIA Heat +300 +250 +240 +240 +235 +245 +250
BOS Celtics -370 -303 -303 -303 -286 -303 -323
Mon (5/29) @ 8:30pm ET MIA Heat +8.5 -110 +7.5 -110 +7.5 -115 +7.0 -110 +7.0 -108 +7.0 -108 +7.5 -110
BOS Celtics -8.5 -110 -7.5 -110 -7.5 -105 -7.0 -110 -7.0 -114 -7.0 -112 -7.5 -110
Mon (5/29) @ 8:30pm ET MIA Heat u203.5 -110 u203.5 -110 u203.5 -110 u203.5 -110 u203.5 -110 u203.5 -110 u203 -110
BOS Celtics o203.5 -110 o203.5 -110 o203.5 -110 o203.5 -110 o203.5 -110 o203.5 -110 o203 -110

Heat vs. Celtics Series Price

Coming into Game 4, the Celtics were as high as +800 to win the Eastern Conference Finals. Boston has significantly cut into that number with a convincing victory to keep the season alive. DraftKings and BetMGM have the Celtics series price at +220, and Caesars Sportsbook is giving Boston +225 odds.

If you want to bet on the Celtics to win the series, we recommend FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get +230 odds on Boston to advance to the NBA Finals.

Here are the Heat vs. Celtics odds of winning the series prior to Game 5.

Teams:DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGM (Code TODAY)Caesars (Code 'TODAYFULL')
Miami Heat-135-150-135-145
Boston Celtics+115+125+115+125

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Can Jayson Tatum and the Celtics come back from a 3-0 series deficit against the Heat? (Photo by Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire)

Heat vs. Celtics Betting Trends & Notes

The Celtics staved off elimination with a 116-99 victory over the Heat in Game 5. All series, we have been talking about how Boston has no chance unless players like Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Smart show up.

While it was still a rough night overall for those three, Tatum and Brown turned on the pressure in the third quarter and played a big part in outscoring Miami by 15 coming out of the break. Tatum scored 14 of his game-high 33 points in the third quarter, and a few steals from Brown led to easy buckets, and Boston was able to put this team away early.

The Celtics shot 40% from deep as a team, and while the free-throw line was still a struggle, they did not rely on it as much. In the three previous games, Boston shot an average of 23 free throws per game, with most of those attempts coming from Tatum.

Speaking of Tatum, he was finally aggressive in the fourth quarter as well, scoring 11 points on 5-of-7 shooting. Turnovers are still an issue, but Boston did what it has all regular season and overwhelmed teams with athleticism on both ends of the court. This is a brand-new series if they can do that in Game 5.

Miami still has a massive advantage, but a team that has shot the ball well in each playoff game this year suddenly disappeared in Game 4. The Heat shot 25% from three, and Jimmy Butler had an inconsistent night, as he shot 9-of-21 but put up 29 points thanks to 12 free throw attempts.

This series has flipped back to Boston, where the Celtics were 32-9 in the regular season. In the playoffs, however, the Celtics are 4-5 in Boston, including losing the first two games of this series.

Miami Heat Betting Trends

  • Miami is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of Miami’s last 15 games
  • Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last six games against Boston
  • The total has gone OVER in five of Miami’s last five games played in Boston

Boston Celtics Betting Trends

  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of Boston’s last 15 games
  • Boston is 2-4 ATS in its last six games when playing as the favorite
  • The total has gone OVER in five of Boston’s last seven games against Miami
  • The total has gone OVER in five of Boston’s last seven home games

Heat vs. Celtics Game 5 Prop Bets

Al Horford Over 7.5 Points (+100, Caesars Sportsbook)

For this series, Al Horford is putting up 7.3 points per game on 42.3% shooting from the field. Oddsmakers have had his points prop around 6.5 points for the entire ECF, which he has cashed in three of four games.

In Game 4, Horford scored 12 points, the first time since Game 4 against Philadelphia that he recorded double-digit points. With nine of those 12 points coming from beyond the arc and Horford shooting 3.3 three-pointers per game, he is giving us plenty of opportunity to go over this number.

Over the last two games, Horford has shot 11 three-pointers, making five of them. If you go back and look at the regular season, when he is making at least two three-pointers in a game, he averages 11.6 points.

For the Celtics, Tatum and Brown showed signs of life for the first time all series in Game 4. Boston has gained a lot of momentum heading back home for Game 5, which means we can expect Tatum and Brown to receive most of the attention. That should leave Horford alone to keep putting up three-point shots.

Although his minutes are down in this series, an impactful Game 4 performance will likely give him a bump for this game. As long as he keeps taking shots, we have an excellent chance for Horford to cash his points prop.

Our friends at Caesars Sportsbook offer +100 odds on this prop, better than any other sports betting app. Make sure you take advantage of these incredible odds, and take the over on Horford’s points prop.

Heat vs. Celtics Game 5 Predictions

Boston is still in major trouble, as no team has ever come back from down 3-0 in the history of the NBA. However, it only took one win from the Celtics to make things seem much more interesting.

The Celtics are big favorites in Game 5, as they should be based on how well they’ve played at home this season. The playoffs have been rough, but with momentum changing sides and the series heading back to Boston, a Celtics win can officially make this a series again.

The problem is Miami has been a chore to play against all postseason. Even in the Game 4 victory for Boston, it was not easy putting this team away. The Heat won both games in Boston this series, and they did so on two outstanding second-half performances, just like Boston did in Game 4.

Miami’s offense still looked strong in Game 4, as the Heat led 66-60 heading into halftime before falling apart in the second half. We can expect the offense to keep scoring, as they have all postseason. Boston, with a bit of momentum, can get Tatum, Brown, and a fleet of three-point shooters going, easily pushing this game over the total.

The total has stayed consistently around 215.5 all series, where it currently is for Game 5 at DraftKings. The total is 41-35 in the playoffs this season and has gone over in 11 of Miami’s 14 playoff games. The total has gone over in three of four games this series, with the one time it went under coming in Game 4, where it missed by the hook. 

Pick: Over 215.5 via DraftKings Sportsbook

How To Watch Heat vs. Celtics Game 5

Date: Thursday, May 25, 2023

Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET

Location: TD Garden — Boston, MA

Where to Watch: TNT

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About the Author
DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan

Writer
DJ Corrigan is a sports betting writer for Gaming Today and has been covering the world of wagering since his days at Ohio State University. Corrigan's love of betting the Over and chasing the hungry dogs has led him to a career crunching numbers with an emphasis on NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, and MLB betting.

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