NBA · Mon (6/12) @ 8:38pm ET
|Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado|
The Denver Nuggets took both games in South Beach and now lead the Miami Heat 3-1 in the 2023 NBA Finals. The Nuggets can close out the series tonight and win the first NBA title in franchise history. As Miami looks to take this series back home and stay alive, we break down the action with a full Heat vs. Nuggets Game 5 predictions, odds, and props preview.
After winning Game 2 and sending this series to Miami tied at 1-1, the Heat lost both games at home by double digits and now have to win in Denver to keep its season alive. The oddsmakers feel that the NBA Finals will end tonight, as DraftKings Sportsbook has the Nuggets laying nine points in Game 5.
As you can imagine, the series price also heavily backs Denver, with a -5000 price to win the NBA Finals.
Heat vs. Nuggets Game 5 Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total
Thanks to another poor shooting night from the Heat, Denver was able to coast to a Game 4 victory. Nuggets star Nikola Jokic still put up an impressive stat line, but the supporting cast helped Denver pull away late. Leading scorer Aaron Gordon (27 points) and Bruce Brown, who added 21 points off the bench, helped Denver put the finishing touches on Game 4.
Before placing your Heat vs. Nuggets bet, check out the odds and lines for Game 5 from the best US sports betting apps. This will ensure you get the best numbers for your wager and allow you to claim any potential sportsbook bonus offers eligible to you.
Here are the Heat vs. Nuggets odds for Game 5, including spread, moneyline, and total.
Heat vs. Nuggets Series Price
With the Nuggets up 3-1 in the NBA Finals, the series price has Denver listed as an overwhelming favorite. At DraftKings, Denver is -5000 to win the series, which means you would need to bet $5,000 to win just $100.
However, we have seen teams come back from 3-1 deficits before. You can find attractive numbers on the Heat’s odds of winning the NBA Finals. At FanDuel, you can get Miami’s series price odds at +2400. This will be the last time the Heat’s odds of winning the finals get longer, so this is the most valuable series price wager you can get on Miami to win the Finals.
Here are the updated Heat vs. Nuggets series price odds before Game 5.
|Team||DraftKings||FanDuel||BetMGM (Code TODAY)||Caesars Sportsbook (Code TODAYFULL)|
Heat vs. Nuggets Betting Trends & Notes
For the third time this series, the Heat were held below 100 points, including in both games played in Miami. Oddly enough, if Denver played elite basketball, Miami fans would feel much more at peace with how the Finals have played out. Instead, the Nuggets have coasted to a 3-1 series lead, and they have looked beatable in every game in the Finals.
In Game 4, Miami’s shooting struggles continued, as they shot 44.9% from the field and only 32% from deep. The Heat are shooting 42.4% from the field all series and are scoring 98.3 points per game. The defense has done an excellent job giving this team a chance, but if guys like Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent, and Max Struss are not going to hit shots, then the Heat might as well stay in Miami.
What is incredibly annoying for Heat fans is that the team has fallen into this deficit despite Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo playing really well over the last three games. If their three-point shooters could hit literally anything, there is no telling what the 2023 NBA Finals would look like heading into Game 5.
But it has been all Nuggets, and Jokic, while averaging 30.8 points, 13.5 rebounds, and 8.0 assists, has gotten a lot of help from his supporting cast. If Denver wins tonight, Jokic will get the Finals MVP, but Gordon, Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr. have all been huge for Denver.
Miami Heat Betting Trends
- Miami is 13-7 ATS in its last 20 games
- The total has gone UNDER in seven of Miami’s last eight games
- Miami is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games in Denver
- The total has gone OVER in five of Miami’s last six games played in Denver
Denver Nuggets Betting Trends
- Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six games
- The total has gone UNDER in four of Denver’s last five games
- The total has gone OVER in six of Denver’s last nine games against Miami
- Denver is 11-1 SU in its last 12 home games
More Finals action: NBA Finals series price
Heat vs. Nuggets Game 5 Prop Bet
Caleb Martin Over 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-151, Caesars Sportsbook)
Remember when Martin took over the ECF, and many people thought he was the actual best player on the Heat?
Well, Martin has had a pretty tough performance in the Finals, averaging 6.8 points per game on only 35% from the field. While he is still shooting a solid 45.5% from deep, he is taking only 2.8 shots from beyond the arc, compared to 6.4 shots against the Celtics.
He also has been well below this number in the Finals, averaging only 4.3 rebounds and 1.3 assists. However, his averages are dragged down by the series’ first two games, where he did not play much. Although he still is not replicating his success from early in the postseason, Martin is putting up 10.5 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 2.0 assists per night over the last two games, and Martin is playing 32.2 minutes per game in that stretch.
In the first two games of the Finals, Martin only played 23 minutes per game and averaged 3.0 points. Luckily, even if Martin has another off-shooting night, more minutes equals more opportunities to get a shot up, and he is a great rebounding wing.
In this year’s postseason, when Martin plays at least 30 minutes, he has hit this number in eight of 11 games. Look for Martin to get more involved tonight as Miami looks to recapture its shooting touch.
Heat vs. Nuggets Game 5 Predictions
The Miami Heat are facing elimination for only the second time in the playoffs, but this time, they are in deep trouble. They reached the Finals thanks to incredible shooting performances and superhuman efforts from Butler.
However, it seems as though they have run out of gas and are just waiting for Denver to finish them off. Even though the Nuggets have not been sharp in the Finals, either, Miami has offered little in terms of effort.
In the Game 2 win, Miami won the fourth quarter with a +11 point differential. In the 15 other quarters played, the Heat are -47, and they’ve failed to score 100 points in back-to-back games.
Dating back to the ECF, Miami has lost six of its last eight games, including five losses by double-digits. It was an incredible run for the Heat throughout the postseason, but if the shooting magic has completely disappeared, there is nothing they can do to survive this series.
The series has been played at an incredibly slow pace, and Miami’s three-point attempt rate has plummeted. With no other way to turn, watch for the Heat to shoot more threes to try and generate some life on offense. That is not the Heat’s identity under Erik Spoelstra, but they are 7-2 when knocking down over 40% of its threes in the postseason.
If they pick up the pace and shoot more threes, the Heat can undoubtedly go on a run or, at the very least, win Game 5. The Nuggets are still a threat to blow this team out, which might happen as Miami has had no answers for Denver’s offense.
But a change of pace means more opportunities, which means we should be able to take advantage of a low total.
Heat vs. Nuggets Game 5 Prediction: Over 209 via DraftKings Sportsbook
How To Watch Heat vs. Nuggets Game 5
Date: Monday, June 12
Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
Location: Ball Arena – Denver, CO
Where to Watch: ABC