Home Run Derby Odds & Predictions: Looking for Betting Value in Monday’s Contest

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Ronald Acuna Jr. is playable at +700 odds in 2022 HR Derby (AP Foto/Ben Margot)

On Monday night at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, eight of baseball’s best power hitters gather to compete in the 2022 Home Run Derby.

With apologies to the slam dunk, the home run may be the most exciting singular accomplishment a team athlete can perform. The home run fascinates and thrills. The Home Run Derby, held annually during All-Star festivities, crowns the king of the home run hitters.

The odds for the Home Run Derby are out at the top sportsbooks. Here’s a rundown of outright odds, first-round matchup betting lines, and predictions for Monday night’s event.

Bet the HR Derby here: Visit DraftKings for $50 Free Bet + $1,000 Bonus

2022 MLB All-Star Game HR Derby Odds

PLAYERTEAMBetMGM (Code TODAY)BetRivers (Code SHARP250)Caesars (Code TODAY15)DraftKingsFanDuel
Kyle SchwarberPHI+300+300+350+330+300
Pete AlonsoNYM+175+185+200+200+185
Corey SeagerTEX+1000+850+1100+900+950
Juan SotoWAS+600+550+650+600+650
José RamírezCLE+1500+1300+1600+1600+1500
Julio RodríguezSEA+800+1000+700+1000+950
Ronald Acuña Jr.ATL+700+500+700+600+650
Albert PujolsSTL+2000+1800+2400+2200+2300

The Home Run Derby is set up like this: a single-elimination swing-for-the-fences competition with three rounds total. In each bracket, the higher seed hits second; batters receive three minutes per round in the first and second rounds. In the final round, they each get two minutes. The clock starts with the release of the first pitch.

These are the first round pairings (season HR totals):

  • No. 1 Kyle Schwarber (29) vs. No. 8 Albert Pujols (6)
  • No. 2 Pete Alonso (24) vs. No. 7 Ronald Acuña (8)
  • No. 3 Corey Seager (22) vs. No. 6 Julio Rodríguez (16)
  • No. 4 Juan Soto (20) vs. No. 5 Jose Ramírez (19)

No. 1 Seed, Kyle Schwarber (+350 Caesars)

Seeding for the Derby means little, except the fact that a higher seed gets to hit second. The seeds are determined by total home runs as of July 13, and Schwarber, the fun-loving slugger for the Phillies, leads the field with 29.

Despite his position as the No. 1 seed, Schwarber is not the favorite from any of the sportsbooks we surveyed. You can get odds as high as +350 on him, via Caesars. He’s a streaky hitter, and Schwarber isn’t particularly hot right now, though he did blast a homer on Saturday. Ultimately, what matters is how in sync the batter is with his hand-picked pitcher.

Odds to win match against Pujols: -350 (Caesars)

No. 2 Seed, Pete Alonso (+200 DraftKings)

Alonso, the right-handed power hitter from the Mets who has won this competition twice (in 2019 and 2021), is the consensus betting favorite. Alonso has a perfect swing for the Derby: short, uppercut to the pull field. He knows what it takes to navigate the pressure of being in the competition and has to be considered a good candidate to emerge as the winner on Monday.

Odds to win match against Acuña Jr.: -200 (Caesars)

No. 3 Seed, Corey Seager (+1100 Caesars)

Seager was added to the field last, and he’s not considered a pure home run hitter. However, thanks in part to the short porch at Rangers Ballpark in Texas, Seager has 22 jacks this year. He’s returning to LA, where he began his MLB career as a Dodger. Many fans will be cheering for their former shortstop.

Odds to win match against Rodríguez: +110 (Caesars)

No. 4 Seed, Juan Soto (+650 FanDuel)

The biggest news about Soto is his reported refusal of a $440 million offer from the Nationals last week. That means this 23-year-old star, who has been putting up Ted Williams-like numbers in his first few seasons, will likely be traded before the Aug. 2 MLB trade deadline. Soto hit 31 homers in the first round of the Derby last year, which rates as one of the five best rounds ever.

Odds to win match against Ramírez: -180 (Caesars)

No. 5 Seed, José Ramírez (+1600 Caesars)

The best all-around hitter in the Derby, at least of those batters in their prime. Ramírez smacked a pair of homers against Detroit on Saturday. He really doesn’t try to pull the ball all the time, so he may be at a disadvantage, which might be why he’s not favored to beat Soto in round one. But don’t sleep on Ramírez, he’s a fantastic hitter and if he gets on a roll, he could make a run at the finals.

Odds to win match against Soto: +150 (Caesars)

No. 6 Seed, Julio Rodríguez (+1000 BetRivers)

The exciting 21-year-old outfielder for the Mariners is favored by Caesars to defeat Seager in the first round. He will probably be the happiest player in the competition: Rodríguez is sort of a Ken Griffey Jr. at heart, a fun-loving, smiling superstar in the making. No rookie has ever won the HR Derby.

Odds to win match against Seager: -140 (Caesars)

No. 7 Seed, Ronald Acuña Jr. (+700 BetMGM)

Acuña Jr. leads MLB in average home run distance this year, and he had a fine performance in the 2019 Home Run Derby, hitting ten balls over 450 feet. Seventh-seed, schmeventh-seed, the Braves outfielder is a great pick to win it all this time. He loves the attention, loves the center stage, and he has a swing made for hitting homers to all fields.

Odds to win match against Alonso: +170 (Caesars)

No. 8 Seed, Albert Pujols (+2400 Caesars)

Most assume Phat Albert has been picked to compete as a sentimental send-off for one of the game’s legends. That’s true, but Pujols can still turn his hips and extend his powerful arms, and given good pitches, he can send the baseball soaring. This is his fifth appearance in the Derby.

Odds to win match against Schwarber: +270 (Caesars)

Prediction: Ronald Acuña Jr. to Win Home Run Derby in LA

Grab the 7-to-1 odds from BetMGM and Caesars and wager on Ronald Acuña Jr. to win the 2022 T-Mobile Home Run Derby Home Run Derby. That means a winning $50 wager on the Atlanta slugger would get you $350.

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About the Author
Dan Holmes

Dan Holmes

Writer and Contributor
Dan Holmes is a writer and contributor for Gaming Today with plenty of experience under his belt. Dan has written three books about sports and previously worked for the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Major League Baseball. Currently, Dan is residing in Michigan with his family.

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