What do 67, 83, 64, 69, 58, 73 have in common? The past six regular-season game totals between these two Big 12 enemies. Who won? Who cares. The Cyclones and Sooners always stage an electric show, and Fox will televise to the nation.
In particular, be vigilant about this game’s halftime total for the second 30 minutes, since these two are among the country’s top 10 in second-half scoring over their past three games—Oklahoma (22) is tied for seventh, Iowa State (21.7) tied for ninth.
Our Pick: Over 60 (-110)
NCAAF · Wed (11/9) @ 7:02pm ET
|Gaylord Family Memorial Stadium, Norman, OK|
Iowa State Cyclones (6-4)
Perhaps sixth-year coach Matt Campbell will seek an actual offensive coordinator and turn the brunt of those duties over to that new wizard.
As it stands, Tom Manning is no offensive coordinator, which we’ve been barking for three years. In fact, back at Campbell’s start in Ames, Manning was his defensive coordinator.
So a year coaching the Colts’ tight ends in the NFL suddenly deign the stuff to be a Division-I offensive coordinator? No. No way. And the program’s misuse of quarterback Brock Purdy is evidence.
As a freshman, Purdy averaged 10.2 yards per attempt, the élite benchmark sought by NFL scouts. Then Manning arrived, and Purdy barely averages 8 in the aforementioned category over the past three seasons.
His QB rating of 169.9 as a rookie has been 151.1, 142.1, and 155.1, respectively, in his follow-up campaigns.
On the ground, the Cyclones have had one of the country’s finest tailbacks in Breece Hall, a 6-foot-1, 220-pound junior from Wichita, Kan. He’s tied for fourth in the nation, with Malik Cunningham of Louisville, with 16 rushing touchdowns.
Hall’s 1,172 yards are sixth in the game. Six of his past eight games have been triple-digit efforts in yardage, and two were within 30 feet of busting the 200-yard barrier.
Purdy has most often thrown to Xavier Hutchinson, tied for 13th in college football with 68 catches. But we find it a pity that star tight end Charlie Kolar has barely nabbed four passes per game. He’s scored only four TDs this season.
The other guys’ passing defenses will allow both offenses to soar. The Sooners allow foes to complete 66.5% of their attempts, which is a bottom-20 national rate.
Purdy threw for a season-best 356 yards last week. Of course, it came in a defeat, at Texas Tech. We will not blink if he goes for 400, for the second time in his collegiate career, against the Sooners.
No. 12 Oklahoma Sooners (9-1)
Who starts at quarterback, Caleb Williams or Spencer Rattler? Again, who cares. Chances are, both will see action, after whichever one who starts doesn’t fare well and the crowd starts bellowing for the other guy.
The Sooners have a star in the backfield, too, in Kennedy Brooks, a 5-11, 215-pound senior from Mansfield, Texas. He averages nearly six yards on his 144 scampers, and 10 have turned into touchdowns.
Since zapping Texas with 217 yards in that big comeback victory on Oct. 9, however, his output has dissipated to 153, 79, 35, and 51 yards.
Iowa State’s defense allows opposing quarterbacks to hit 62% of their attempts, a bottom-half national rate, so Williams or Rattler—maybe both—should have fun throwing to Marvin Mims (22.2-yard average), Jadon Haselwood (six TDs), Jeremiah Hall, and Eric Gray.
Iowa State At Oklahoma Sportsbook Odds
Sports Betting Recommendation
In their past two at home, Oklahoma has seen an average of 78 total points. In five games on the road this season, Iowa State has averaged nearly 36 points. Our three models peg 65, 63, and 60 points being scored in Norman.
This consensus figure has crept up from an initial 58, but I wouldn’t be concerned if it eked into the mid-60s. This one has 70s written all over it.