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Daytona 500 is a giant crap shoot that most professional bettors shy away from because of that uncertainty, but it’s the Daytona 500, therefore wagers must be placed despite having little edge like might be obtained prior to other races.

And with the uncertainty comes the possibility of hitting a bomb like Trevor Bayne at 100-to-1 last year. Drivers that have high odds this week who are very capable of winning include Elliott Sadler (30/1 field), Marcos Ambrose (50/1) and Ricky Stenhouse (60/1). Sadler has been stellar in almost every Daytona 500 he’s run, Ambrose has had a great speed weeks and Stenhouse is driving the same chassis that David Ragan drove to the winner’s circle in the summer Daytona race last year.

Matchup play of the week:

Marcos Ambrose -110 vs Regan Smith: I’ve seen too much good out of Amrose over the last week to believe he’ll be around late in the race and contend for the win.

Daytona 500 Cautions UNDER 9.5 (EV): Because of all the changes put in place to stop the two-car tandems and the spectacular wrecks we saw in the Bud Shootout, the first inclination is to think there will be a loty of wrecks Sunday.

But the uncertainty may play into drivers being more cautious than ever and lead to less aggressive driving early on with the goal of staying on the track until the final three laps. Four of the last five Daytona 500’s have had 9 cautions or less.

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