No, it’s not Trevor Lawrence against Deshaun Watson.
But the Jacksonville Jaguars invading the Cleveland Browns carries heavy significance for each team, even if that means CJ Beathard likely facing Joe Flacco.
Check out our Jaguars vs Browns prediction, odds, and props.
NFL Week 14 Odds: Jaguars vs Browns Spread, Moneyline, Total
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Spread: Browns , Jaguars
Moneyline: Browns , Jaguars
Jaguars vs Browns Betting News
Cleveland went from +3 to -3 on the betting lines after Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence sustained a high-ankle sprain in his team’s 34-31 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday night.
Lawrence has lobbied to return, but did not practice on Thursday and is, in the eyes of the books, not playing. In the unlikely event he does, the Jags may quickly become favored again.
Browns bettors may be tempted to buy half a point to get to -2.5 or simply focus on other wagers.
Jaguars vs Browns Betting Trends
One could say it’s the opponent. Or one can say it’s Cleveland conditions.
But something unusual has happened in each of the Browns’ six home games this year: the teams rarely score.
Totals for Cleveland’s six games are 27, 30, 31, 36, 27, and 23. The Under has prevailed in all but one contest.
Cleveland fashions a different story on the road. The Browns, combined with the Colts for 77 points in a 39-38 road victory, and the Jags have hit the high 30s a couple of times.
That brings bettors to an unusual number for this game: 31.5. That’s the total between these two teams and 64% of the handle backs the Under. This has been a league trend in 2023. The lower the total, the higher the faith in the Under, and that bet has been cashing.
But should this total be flirting with historic lows?
There hasn’t been an NFL total number opening Under 30 since Dec. 26, 1993, when frigid temperatures caused three of them according to league sources.
Even the offensively-challenged Patriots and Steelers cleared their 30 obligation on Thursday night.
This is 31.5 without frigid temperatures. Cleveland is forecast for 47 degrees, with rain, on Sunday. The wind is expected at 14 mph, just under the unofficial magic number of 15 mph that limits offenses.
How Joe Flacco Could Impact the Total
The former Super Bowl MVP can throw a deep ball. He can also be turnover-prone. Either of these scenarios could enhance the point total.
Flacco is a reasonable -110 at DraftKings to throw at least one pick against an opportunistic Jacksonville defense, even if it is one that yielded 491 yards to the Bengals.
Flacco’s yardage total is pedestrian enough at 191.5. It is -115 for the Over and Under at DraftKings.
How Jaguars, Browns Enter NFL Week 14
Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)
The Jaguars sit one game ahead of the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans atop the AFC South leaderboard.
The Jags have been the division favorite all year, usually in the -150 futures betting range.
Travis Etienne scored last week and is the team’s most potent scoring threat with eight touchdowns. Evan Engram and Parker Washington also tallied.
Calvin Ridley is a strong wide receiver. He’s been good all season, but had only had four catches for 26 yards last week. Ridley has 689 receiving yards and five touchdowns in an excellent bounce-back year. Christian Kirk has 787 receiving yards to lead the team and has three touchdowns.
Cleveland Browns (7-5)
The Browns are 5-1 at home, a team fit for the Cleveland conditions. A punishing defense allowing a league-low 260 yards per game has been a big factor.
Offensively, Jerome Ford and Harrison Bryant had touchdowns for them last week.
Kareem Hunt averaged four yards a carry.
Imagine this offense if Nick Chubb wasn’t injured, and out.
As for how Cleveland deploys personnel, Flacco gives them more options up top with the passing game, but he is not a running option. Deshaun Watson, PJ Walker, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson provided that but left something to be desired throwing the ball.
Amari Cooper is the team’s top receiver, but he’s in concussion protocol. He will likely be a game-time decision or close to it.
Jaguars vs Browns Betting Picks
Cleveland has been remarkably stingy at home and thus this game has the look of smashmouth football, with teams slowly grinding yards out.
If your belief is that this game will open a bit, however, here are some options to support that angle at DraftKings:
- Browns Over 1.5 Touchdowns, -120
- Jaguars Over 1.5 Touchdowns, +110
- Both teams to score 15 or more points, +275
- Each team to notch one touchdown and one field goal, +115
Jaguars vs Browns Value Bets To Consider
- Browns score first and win, +135
Browns score first and lose, +475
Jags score first and win, +250
Jags score first and lose, +340
Here’s an against-the-grain consideration at BetMGM for bettors who hold steadfast to this being a low-scoring game.
In most NFL contests, a team will score three unanswered times.
But what happens when you expect points to come at a premium?
Three unanswered scores is -125 for Yes and +140 for No.
Other wagers: Will there be a score in the last two minutes of the first half? Yes -175, No +135.
Jaguars vs Browns Method of First Score
Jacksonville TD, +360
Jacksonville Field Goal, +240
Jacksonville Safety, +4000
Cleveland Touchdown, +200
Cleveland Field Goal, +250
Cleveland Safety, +4000
Jaguars vs Browns First and Anytime Touchdown Scorers
When this market goes up across the sportsbook landscape, look for Ford and Hunt to be in the +550 to +650 range to be the first touchdown scorers for Cleveland. Ford would likely sit around +150 and Hunt +200 for an anytime tally.
Etienne and Ridley will likely be the top two selections for Jacksonville and their odds may be in the ballpark. Kirk will get some money too.
How to Watch Jaguars vs Browns
- Game Day: Sunday, December 9, 2023
- Game Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Cleveland Browns Stadium | Cleveland, OH
- Channel: CBS