After the most bizarre week of the 2022 NFL regular season, fans look forward to Week 16. Two teams with polar opposite recent forms face off to open up this week, as the New York Jets (7-7 straight up, 8-6 against the spread) host the Jacksonville Jaguars (6-8 SU, 6-7-1 ATS) on Thursday Night Football.
Bettors can wager on player props and anytime touchdown scorer bets for this AFC contest, and we have found a few hidden gems that may win you extra cash in time for the holidays.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Jets TNF Odds
The Jets opened as a slight favorite versus Jacksonville (as short as -145 on the Caesars moneyline), but after New York dropped four of its last five games and the Jags came back to beat the Dallas Cowboys in Week 15, the betting lines for Thursday night have shifted to the Jets being favored by just 1.5 points and between -112 and -130 ML.
The Jaguars have struggled on the road this season, going 2-5 ATS. They’re still attracting bettors, as 65% of moneyline tickets and 73% of spread tickets at DraftKings are on the away team.
The Over/Under total for this primetime fixture is set at 36 points on legal US sports betting apps – the third lowest of any Week 16 contest.
NFL · Thu (12/22) @ 8:16pm ET
| JAX Jaguars | at | NY Jets |
| MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey | ||
Player Props, TD Scorer Bets for Week 16 TNF
Christian Kirk Under 50.5 Receiving Yards (-103, Caesars)
The reasoning behind the Under for this prop has nothing to do with Kirk and everything to do with who is guarding him. On Thursday, Kirk will step foot onto Sauce Island, where receivers go to disappear.
Gardner has locked down almost every receiver he’s guarded. Buffalo Bills wideout Stefon Diggs didn’t see a single target when covered by Gardner in Week 13.
What’s more, the Jets are at their best when defending the slot, where Kirk primarily plays.
Also read: Teams’ odds to make NFL playoffs
Zonovan Knight Anytime TD Scorer (+160, BetMGM)
With Breece Hall recovering from a torn ACL and Michael Carter averaging 3.6 yards per carry, Zonovan Knight is now the new starting running back of the Jets. He has scored once in four games, but between his high volume of touches (17.3 per game) and the Jags’ soft red zone defense, the rookie has a great opportunity Thursday night to double his 2022 touchdown total.
Jacksonville gives up the fourth-most red zone touchdowns per game (2.2) and allows a touchdown on 64.6% of red zone trips (fourth-highest rate in the league).
New York has almost entirely given up on Zach Wilson, and the only reason the young quarterback is starting against the Jags is that Mike White is dealing with a rib injury. Wilson has been a disaster under the play-calling of Mike LaFleur, so the offensive coordinator may put the ball in his starting running back’s hands as the offense gets closer to the end zone.
More on this matchup: Jaguars vs. Jets odds, injuries, prediction
Trevor Lawrence Over 13.5 Rushing Yards (-115, DraftKings) | Longest Rush Over 8.5 Rushing Yards (-113, Caesars)
Trevor Larwence has been on fire with his arm and has received recognition for his development as a passer. However, one area that gets overlooked when it comes to the Jags quarterback is his ability as a runner.
He doesn’t scramble often (3.5 rushes per game), though he’s an athletic player who picks his spots on when to take off and usually picks up good yardage. Lawrence has totaled 14-plus ground yards and has logged a run of nine-plus yards in seven of his last 10 games this season.
New York has one of the better pass rushes in the NFL. If they bring the heat Thursday night, Lawrence will be forced to scramble and run instead of pass.
Updated numbers: NFL MVP odds
Evan Engram Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (+100, Caesars)
Jags head coach Doug Pederson has carved out a nice role for tight end Evan Engram, who has seen 25 total targets over his last two games. He caught 19 of them for a total of 224 yards receiving, including 162 yards against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 14.
His Week 16 receiving prop is the tallest he’s seen this season, but we still think it’s too low considering his recent growth spurt in the offense and the somewhat favorable matchup.
As suffocating as New York’s secondary is against No. 1 and No. 2 wide receivers, it has shown weakness against quality tight ends this season. The Jets have given up the seventh-most receptions to players at the position (5.1 per game).
The Jets will pay most of their attention to the Jaguars’ talented trio of wide receivers, giving Pederson an opportunity to create mismatches for his talented tight end in the receiving game.
Also read: NFL Week 16 Odds
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