BOXING · Sat (8/5) @ 8:00 pm ET
| Jake Paul | at | Nate Diaz |
| American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX | ||
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Chalk bettors face a quandary, while dog bettors support the unknown when Jake Paul battles Nate Diaz on Saturday night in Dallas. As sportsbooks increasingly favor the social media star-turned-boxer over a UFC veteran making his ring debut, we break down Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz odds, props, and predictions.
The 185-pound fight will air on DAZN PPV and ESPN+ PPV.
Paul vs. Diaz Early Betting Action
Paul became unplayable on the moneyline at midweek, with juice ranging as high as -550 early Wednesday morning at FanDuel (Caesars offers -380 on the favorite). That’s an exorbitant number for someone who lost his last fight to Tommy Fury and goes 10 rounds the first time.
Diaz’ best odds early Wednesday were +350 at FanDuel.
Paul bettors will seek refuge in the props, while Diaz backers will find attractive longshot prices on the dog.
Gamblers who love to scour the best sports-betting apps to locate their most advantageous price may enjoy this shopping adventure.
Betting Intangibles for Paul vs. Diaz
Diaz has never appeared in a boxing match. Yes, he is famed, even “Notorious” for that rear-naked choke stoppage of Conor McGregor back in 2016. But that was a long time ago, he’s now 38, and the odds reflect a sentiment that he’s hanging around for the payday of at least $500,000, or more if he wins.
Diaz not only has a new assignment, but must go 10 rounds, a difficult first test. The fighters recently moved the bout from eight rounds to 10, giving it more respectability. But for Diaz, respectability also means responsibility. This fight length is a tough first ask.
Paul, the YouTuber-turned-pugilist, lost his last fight. It was a split decision to Tommy Fury, the brother of heavyweight champion Tyson Fury. He could earn up to $2 million in this fight, per ESPN.
Paul added International Boxing Hall of Famer Sugar Shane Mosley to his training team, along with Theo Chambers and J’Leon Love. It’s a good group surrounding him. Bettors must weigh whether Paul will improve with these additions or if he simply made a change for the sake of change following the loss.
DraftKings Boss Thinks Fight is Well-Placed
Johnny Avello, the director of race and sportsbook operations for DraftKings, told Gaming Today the event may draw moderate betting interest and is helped by its positioning.
“There’s nothing big going against it, so I think it will end up doing OK,” Avello noted.
“There is always some pull-over from the UFC bettors when one of their stars competes in a boxing match,” Avello said of Diaz.
“What made the line difficult to make, however, is that we don’t know much about Diaz as a boxer and if he can go 10 rounds. It certainly became more significant to bettors when they moved this fight from 8 to 10 rounds, because 8 is usually associated with an exhibition, but I don’t think it’s easy for anyone to really know how well these guys will do here.”
That’s why it will be interesting to see where bettors put their bucks in the final days before the fight.
Paul vs. Diaz Prop Bets
Here is a sampling of prop bets from DraftKings for Saturday’s fight.
Victory Method
- Paul by Decision/technical decision, +350
- Paul by KO/TKO/DQ, -150
- Diaz by Decision/technical decision, +750.
- Diaz by K0/TKO/DQ, +500.
Prop Bets Worth a Long Look
Fight length Over-Under 7.5 rounds (Over -125, Under -110)
Even if Diaz can’t solve Paul, he may clutch and tie up in an effort not to embarrassed on the big stage. That could extend the length of this fight.
Paul to win by unanimous decision (+500)
Tempting for the same reason. If Diaz clutches, grabs, and wills his way to the limit, he probably won’t win, and the judges would not favor this fighting style. This could allow Paul to prevail on points.
Paul to win by split (+1200) or majority (+2200) decision
Tests the theory that Paul would struggle against most fighters, but win.
Diaz to win by split (+2200) or majority (+4000) decision
Paul’s pedigree seems to stick in the minds of the judges. His loss to Fury was a split decision. If the fight has many close rounds, it’s a good bet to think at least one judge will have Paul winning it.
A Diaz backer can roll the dice a price with a split or majority decision.
Draw (+1200)
If you think it could be close, this is a cover ticket.
Betting Paul with a group-rounds scenario
If he wears down Diaz, Paul to win in Rounds 7-8 (+550) or 9-10 (+750) are viable.
Bettor Beware
Be careful about a potentially confusing wager.
It involves the stoppage of the fight and a victory for Paul (K0, +240, TKO +120) and Diaz (KO +1600, TKO +700).
This brings a subjective element into play. After a fighter is dropped, the referee may wave the count off in the middle of it to summon medical attention. For safety reasons, that’s smart. But for bettors, it could become painful.
Even if it is obvious that the ref would have reached the knockout count of 10, if it’s waved off, the fight could be ruled a TKO.
Within boxing, that only affects the length of time a fight will be suspended. But within betting circles, that could change a result.
This is either a good wager to stay away from or cover one’s interest by taking both a KO and TKO. Splitting hairs on these two results is difficult.
BetMGM Sample Betting Menu for Paul vs. Diaz
These options on BetMGM Sportsbook give bettors a chance to collect via either fighter.
Fight Length
- 1-5 rounds, +200
- 6-10 rounds, +150
- Full distance, +150
Group Betting on When Fight Ends
- Rounds 1-2, +900
- Rounds 3-4, +550
- Rounds 5-6, +400
- Rounds 7-8, +400
- Rounds 9-10, +650
- Goes full distance, +150
FanDuel Latest Props for Paul vs. Diaz
- Fighter to be knocked down (Paul +400, Diaz -134)
- Fight to go the distance (Yes +170, No -220)
- Paul to win by K0/TKO, +120
- Diaz to win by KO/TKO
- Paul to win by points or decision, +270
- Diaz to win by points or decision, +700
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