Jets vs. Patriots Odds & Prediction: Fading the Home Favorite

The New York Jets hit the road to face the New England Patriots for a Sunday afternoon game in Week 11 of the 2022 NFL season.

The Patriots opened as a 5-point favorite last week. Now the odds range from 3-3.5 points at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and PointsBet, marking the 22nd straight time New England has been a favorite in this series.

Here is a look at Jets vs. Patriots odds and a prediction.

Jets vs. Patriots Betting Line: Point Spread, Moneyline, Total

Here are Jets vs. Patriots odds from around the sports betting industry.

Patriots Look to Extend Dominance Over Jets

The Patriots (5-4 overall, 5-3-1 ATS) will be looking to gain their 14th win in a row over the Jets (6-3 overall, 6-3 ATS) in this AFC East battle. It’s one of only three games in the league this year in which both teams are coming off a bye.

Should the Pats prevail, it would still be six victories shy of Miami’s 20-game winning  streak over Buffalo from 1970-79.

The Patriots have dominated against the spread, too, going 9-4 during their long winning streak. It wasn’t all with Tom Brady at QB. New England has gone 4-1 ATS in the past three years without him.

Three weeks ago in the Meadowlands, the Patriots beat the Jets 22-17 as a 3-point pick behind second-year QB Mac Jones.

Check out: NFL Week 11 Betting Trends | NFL Week 11 Odds

It’s somewhat amazing the Jets managed to stay that close. In that meeting the Patriots had an NFL season-best edge in average starting field possession, a margin of 23 yards. The Jets’ average launch point for drives was their 20 and never past the 25. New Engalnd’s norm was its 43 thanks in large part to three interceptions of Zach Wilson that resulted in short fields.

In total, the Patriots started drives inside the 50 six times, more than any other team had in a game this year, yet didn’t march to a TD on any of them. The Jets’ seventh-ranked defense gets the credit.

New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Wilson will have to keep his head on a swivel against a Patriots team that had nine sacks vs. Indianapolis in their most recent outing. He’ll especially be on the lookout for LB Matthew Judon, the NFL leader in sacks with 11.5. Judon was shut out in that previous meeting vs. the Jets, one of only two games in which he didn’t drag down a QB this season.

Weather-wise, the forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-30s with winds estimated at 14 mph.

Lastly, this is one of two games this week in which the over/under point total is currently sub-40. Over the previous five weeks in this scenario, the under has hit in six of seven games, each time by at least 9.5 points. Overall this season, the Under has been the way to go in nine of the 14 games in which the total was in the 30s.

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Jets vs. Patriots Prediction

It wasn’t all bad for the Jets in that loss to New England, which gives them hope for Sunday.

Wilson did pass for 355 yards, the most the Patriots have allowed in their past 20 games. Rookie Garrett Wilson had 115 receiving yards, his top production of the season.

The Jets also had a season-high six sacks of Jones, resulting in a net of only 3.9 yards a drop-back. New York had another five sacks the next week vs. Buffalo in a 20-17 win as a 10.5-point underdog.

In that victory over the Bills, the Jets rushed for 174 yards (5.1 a carry) against their seventh-ranked rush defense, led by 76 yards (6.3 a rush) by Michael Carter. New England’s run defense ranks 19th.

In Sunday’s cold and wind, that running game could prove to be the difference.

Forecast: Jets 27, Patriots 19

Also read: TNF player props and TD scorersOdds to make 2023 NFL playoffs

About the Author
Bob Christ

Bob Christ

Bob Christ, based in New Mexico, is a sports betting writer at Gaming Today. He has been a gaming writer (primarily for the NFL) for more than four decades, with his work appearing in publications and websites across North America. Christ is a big fan of the Arkansas Razorbacks, Philadelphia Eagles and Phillies, and the NHL's Winnipeg Jets.

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