From the steroid-era to the juiced baseball era? MLB has had plenty of dramatic events transpire over the past thirty years. Another page of the saga was written when the league sent a memo to teams regarding a study of a juiced baseball.
The Associated Press announced that balls had deviations in the seams, causing them to travel further. According to MLB Vice President of baseball operation Morgan Sword, the new balls will fly 1 to 2 feet shorter.
This is bigger news than most fans might think. Many teams, including the Dodgers, Braves, and Yankees rely heavily on the home run. MLB projects the balls to slowly decrease in bounce rate over the next several seasons.
Total Home Runs In Baseball Last 10 Years
- 2011: 4,552
- 2012: 4,934
- 2013: 4,661
- 2014: 4,186
- 2015: 4,909
- 2016: 5,610
- 2017: 6,105
- 2018: 5,585
- 2019: 6,776
Will Fewer Home Runs Affect 2021 World Series Odds?
| PointsBet Sportsbook | BetMGM Sportsbook | Draftkings Sportsbook | FanDuel Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers +350 | Los Angeles Dodgers +350 | Los Angeles Dodgers +350 | Los Angeles Dodgers +350 |
| New York Yankees +550 | New York Yankees +600 | New York Yankees +550 | New York Yankees +550 |
| San Diego Padres +800 | San Diego Padres +900 | San Diego Padres +800 | San Diego Padres +800 |
| Chicago White Sox +900 | Atlanta Braves +900 | Chicago White Sox +850 | Chicago White Sox +850 |
| Atlanta Braves +950 | Chicago White Sox +1000 | Atlanta Braves +1000 | Atlanta Braves +1000 |
| New York Mets +1050 | New York Mets +1200 | New York Mets +1000 | New York Mets +1000 |
Three of the top teams in terms of odds to win the World Series rely heavily on home runs. For instance, the Dodgers led the league in home runs with 118 during last year’s shortened season. They are followed up by the Braves, White Sox, Padres, and Yankees. Not surprisingly, these five teams are in the top five in probability to win the World Series this year.
It is important to recognize that the slight changes in the ball should not affect teams too much according to major league baseball. Last year, 6.5% of plate appearances resulted in home runs which is just .1% less than when baseball set their home run record.
Teams that have strong batting average statistics and home runs will be largely unaffected by this development. For instance, the Mets and Braves are at the top of the league in home runs and batting average. A potential dip in home runs should not affect these teams very much at all.
However, teams like the Yankees and Twins who have a very low batting average (.247 and .242 averages respectively) and high home runs could see a dip in production.
There is never a dull moment in baseball when discussing home runs. It has been controversial for decades and the new findings from scientists in baseball are just the newest chapter of the story.
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