Kansas vs. Baylor Odds, Trends, Picks: Back Road Underdog in Big 12 College Basketball Showdown

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The Kansas Jayhawks look to get their season back on track as they head to Waco for a massive Big 12 college basketball matchup against the Baylor Bears. All eyes will be on this game, with it being the only ranked matchup of the night, and we are here to break down the odds and betting trends, as well as the best Kansas vs. Baylor betting pick. 

Coming into this game, Kansas has lost two straight games, to Kansas State in overtime and then a 23-point blowout against the surprise TCU Horned Frogs. The defending National Champions have fallen into a three-way tie for second place in the Big 12 with Texas and Iowa State. Still, even with their recent struggles, the Jayhawks are one of the best teams in the country, and they have the perfect “get right” game tonight.

Meanwhile, Baylor has responded nicely to their three-game losing streak, winning four-straight games. The level of competition may not have been great, but this is an ample opportunity for Baylor to climb back up the Big 12 rankings and reintroduce itself as one of the best programs in the country. 

Kansas vs. Baylor Betting Odds: Spread, Total, Moneyline

This will be a great game, and if you plan on placing a wager on this matchup, we advise you to look at the odds and lines from each of the top US online sportsbooks available. Doing this will give you the best odds and lines to increase your chances of winning and, in the long run, turn you into a profitable sports bettor.

Here are the most up-to-date lines and odds for Kansas vs. Baylor so that you can get the best number possible. 

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 Kansas vs. Baylor Betting Trends

Kansas

  • Kansas is 1-4 ATS in their last five games
  • Kansas is 4-1 ATS in their last five games against Baylor
  • The total has gone OVER in four of Kansas’ last six road games
  • Kansas is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games at Baylor

Baylor

  • Baylor is 14-2 SU in their last 16 home games
  • Baylor is 4-1 Su in their last five games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Baylor’s last 19 games against Kansas
  • The total has gone OVER in five of Baylor’s last seven games

Also check: March Madness Odds 2023

Kansas Jayhawks (16-3, 7-12 ATS)

Although the Jayhawks are not a great shooting team, their recent shooting struggles have led to their back-to-back losses. Against Kansas State, they shot only 43.3% from the field and only 20.7% from deep. It only got worse in their last game against TCU, as they shot 39% from the field and only 33.3% from three.

kansas baylor odds
Dajuan Harris Jr. and Kansas are short underdogs on the road vs. Baylor (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

Luckily, they are going up against a Baylor defense that has struggled to defend the three-point line, and their defense ranks 94th according to KenPom‘s AdjD metric. This is not to say that Baylor cannot defend in this matchup, but for a struggling offense looking to get it together, this is the type of defense you would like to see.

While they are going to need their shooters like Gradey Dick and Dajuan Harris Jr. to get it going from deep, four of their five starters average 10+ points per game, and their leading scorer, Jalen Wilson, is putting up 21.3 points per game on 41.8% shooting from the field. Over the last two games, Wilson is averaging 34 points on 50% shooting from the field, and they will need that type of scoring tonight.

Defensively for Kansas, they have fallen off a cliff these past two games, but they have still been a solid unit throughout the season. They rank 19th in KenPom’s AdjD metric and guard the perimeter well, allowing teams to shoot only 40.8% from the field and 45.9% from two-point range. They will have their work cut out for them on the boards, as they are ranked 236th in opponent offensive rebounds per game and 178th in defensive rebounds allowed per game.

Baylor Bears (14-5, 9-9-1 ATS)

After a three-game losing streak that seemingly had no end in sight, the Bears have won four games in a row and have done so on the back of their offense. During their mini-winning streak, the Bears have scored 75 points per game, and even during the three-game losing streak, they scored 62, 87, and 95. 

Simply put, this team can score, and they can score from all areas of the court. As a team, Baylor is ranked 36th in effective field goal percentage (53.8%), 22nd in shooting efficiency (1.152), and 18th in made three-pointers per game (9.4). Baylor is also ranked in the top 25 in scoring (79.6), average scoring margin (+10.3), assist per game (15.9), and assists/FGM ratio (0.601). 

While they are a good shooting team, they have struggled against good premier defenses, which is precisely what they will be going up against tonight. Kansas is elite at defending from outside due to their length and incredible athleticism, so Baylor will have to try and attack the middle, where the Jayhawks are prone to taking damage. 

The problem is that Baylor is shooting a three-pointer on about 45% of their offensive trips, and when they struggle to hit the deep ball, as we saw during their three-game losing streak, their offense is not good enough to make up for that in other areas. Baylor has the size and athletism to compete, especially with LJ Cryer starting to round back into shape, but this game will come down to which breaks first, Baylor’s great shooting or Kansas’ perimeter defense. 

Kansas vs. Baylor Betting Pick

Even though Kansas is the better team, Baylor giving out the points in this matchup makes sense. Not only are the Bears starting to heat up, but Kansas has now fallen into their funk, losing two straight, with the latter of the two being a 23-point thumping.

However, we will take Kansas and the points in this spot. Even if the Jayhawks’ shooting numbers improve by a little in this game, they would have a significant advantage as you can trust Kansas’ defense more in this matchup than Baylor’s offense, and the Jayhawks would have been in much better shape over their last two games if they looked like they knew how to play basketball. 

The Jayhawks have dominated this series, going 13-2 ATS in their last 16 games in Waco, and since they are getting points in this matchup, we are all over Kansas. 

Pick: Kansas +2.5 (-120); odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

How To Watch Kansas vs. Baylor

Date: Monday, Jan. 23 | Tipoff: 9 p.m. ET

Location: Ferrell Center – Waco, TX

Where to Watch: ESPN

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About the Author
DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan

Writer
DJ Corrigan is a sports betting writer for Gaming Today and has been covering the world of wagering since his days at Ohio State University. Corrigan's love of betting the Over and chasing the hungry dogs has led him to a career crunching numbers with an emphasis on NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, and MLB betting.

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