At the conclusion of Saturday night’s Quaker State 400 at Kentucky Speedway, the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series will be at the halfway point of the 2017 season.
So far we’ve had 11 different winners in the first 17 races, including three drivers who captured the first Cup wins of their careers. Last week at Daytona, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. won for the second time in his four-year career. His first win came eight weeks ago at Talladega. The Daytona win paid out at 20-to-1 odds.
Seven-time Cup champion Jimmie Johnson leads the series with three wins and then right under him four drivers have two wins, including Brad Keselowski who has won three of the six races held on Kentucky’s 1.5-mile layout. He won in 2012, 2014 and also last season.
This will be the sixth race on a 1.5-mile track this season. Although this oval is unique to itself, what we’ve seen in the first fives races on 1.5-mile layouts is still very telling to what we can expect Saturday night. So here’s a quick recap of what happened on them:
Atlanta (March 5): Brad Keselowski scooped up a win when Kevin Harvick got a speeding penalty after he had dominated the race leading 292 laps. Kyle Larson would finish second.
Las Vegas (March 12): Martin Truex Jr. led 150 laps and was in control for most the race. Keselowski led 89 laps and finished fifth. Larson finished second.
Texas (April 9): Jimmie Johnson came on strong late to win, but it was Ryan Blaney who led the most laps (148). He’d finish 12th. Harvick led 77 laps and finished fourth. Larson finished second, again.
Kansas (May 13): Truex led the most laps (104) and Blaney led the second-most (83) before finishing fourth. Keselowski would finish second, Harvick third and Larson sixth. Joe Gibbs racing finally showed some speed on these type of tracks with Kyle Busch leading 59 laps and finishing fifth.
Charlotte (May 28): Austin Dillon would win the first race of his Cup career. He gambled correctly on fuel mileage and crossed the finish line on fumes. Truex would dominate the race leading 233 laps, finishing third. Kyle Busch led 63 laps, finished second and showed signs of JGR eventually capturing a win. Matt Kenseth was fourth and Denny Hamlin was fifth. Harvick led 45 laps and finished eighth.
As you can see from the rundown, it’s a lot of the same names and the odds will reflect it. Larson’s two wins on the year came on two two-mile tracks (Fontana, Michigan) and JGR still hasn’t won a race this season. But as you can see with Kyle Busch, they’re close and this is a track Busch is quite fond of in all series. He’s captured six wins at Kentucky between the three major series, including the Cup Series debut in 2011. He also won in the Cup series there in 2015.
Both Busch and teammate Kenseth are tied at 5.2 with the best average finish at Kentucky between the first six races. Kenseth won at Kentucky in 2013. Is this the week one of the Gibbs drivers finally breaks through?
Truex may have something to say about that matter, but I do think it’s a good spot for Kyle Busch to break through.